Electoralcalculus Updated

[mikey4444]

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

They don't show the previous update, so here it it ::

CON....263........now.....251
LAB.....302........now.....316
LIB......16..........now.....19
UKIP.....0...........now.....0
NAT......50.........now.....45
MIN......19..........now.....19

So the difference in predicted seats for May 205 are CON = 12 less, LAB = 14 more, and NAT 5 less. So, still no seats predicted for UKIP.

LAB now has a 42% of an over all majority, up from 34%, and CON now has a 8% chance, down from 12%. Bear in mind that was based on Polls 07/11 to 28/11, so would include the latest UKIP win in Rochester.

I will update again at the end of December.

[mikey4444]

Bouncer.....those Bar Stewards will never get me down, I can assure you of that !

[Sqad]

mikey........again some amateur observations.

From the above polls:

Labour.....doing nicely....popularity increasing.....all on for success.
Conservatives.....oh! dear.....losing ground.
Lib.....good news.....popularity increasing.
UKIP......no better...no worse....hardly a threat to any party.

Now let us sit down with our mates.....try to fathom the mood of the country at the moment...pubs, clubs, homes throughout the country...and this is what I am hearing.......

Labour...struggling ...really struggling.
Conservatives.....going nowhere.
Libs......sinking without trace.
UKIP....now a force in UK Politics......not to be ignored.

Now mikey.........who is correct?

P.S another *** stupid Best Answer...par for the AB course.

[mikey4444]

Sqad...the Pollsters have interviewed 100,000's of people over the last few months...probably more. Not sure how many people you have spoken to but its unlikely to be even a tiny fraction of that. The higher the amount of people that are Polled, the higher the degree of accuracy.

For want of any other reliable info, I think you got it right in the your initial analysis. By the way, I will give BA to whoever I think deserves it...you never know, it might be you next time !

[Sqad]

\\\\By the way, I will give BA to whoever I think deserves it...you never know, it might be you next time !\\\\

LOL....I know! I know!

\\The higher the amount of people that are Polled, the higher the degree of accuracy. \\\

I know! I know!

Just "musing."....;-)

[mikey4444]

Of course you were Sqad, and your musings are always welcome and interesting !

At least you didn't say something really stupid, like others on here have done today !