Electoralcalculus Update

[mikey4444]

http://electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

CON down from 251 seats to 242. LAB up from 316 seats to 321. Very little change for other Parties.

[anotheoldgit]

This tells a different story.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

[Gromit]

AOG

Polling Report predicts CON 261, Lab 338. Same story, not a different story.

[anotheoldgit]

Gromit please explain according to this swingometer link, it will be a hung parliament, Conservatives 306 seats, Labour 258 seats, Conservatives 20 seats short.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/swing-calculator

Opinium/Observer – CON 29%(nc), LAB 36%(+2), LDEM 6%(nc), UKIP 16%(-3), GRN 5% (tabs)

YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 32%, LAB 34%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 15%, GRN 8% (tabs)

Populus: CON 35%, LAB 35%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4% (tabs)

[ToraToraTora]

calculus schmalculus, mikey, the only poll that counts is in May and I don't know anyone other than a few devotees that thinks Ed is PM material! If it doesn't go your way in May will you abandon the EC site?

[jim360]

AOG, that was the result of the 2010 election which it starts with as a default. You then have to enter different poll numbers to get the current prediction.

[mikey4444]

AOG...whatever way you look at it, the Tories are on the slide. They haven't been able to get ahead, and stay ahead of Labour since not long after the 2010 General Election. I use Electoralcalulus and YouGov for reasons of consistency, and both show that the Tories are sinking further behind every month.

Its still a few weeks to go before the next Election, but if dave is planning to make a comeback, he had better start soon, or it will be too late !

[mikey4444]

TTT...Why then, do YOU think that the vast majority of Polls are showing the Tories to be behind ? One or two Polls might be out of kilter but its counterintuitive to believe that all the Polls are wrong.

[ToraToraTora]

take your pick mikey for what it's worth:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27330849
many have Labour/Tories neck and neck but really I have never had much faith in somthing that uses percentages when the election does not. A a few marginals decide who wins. Remember 1992? Kinnochio had a 7point lead over Major. I'll wait for the day. I just don't see Ed as PM and neither will the key marginals.

[mikey4444]

TTT...Even fewer people see dave as PM material as well, if all the Polls are to be believed. We shall just have to wait and see !

Happy New Year, by the way !