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Latest Electoral Calculus Predictions
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Very little change from last month. although then it was a 30% chance of a Labour majority and now its 33%. Still all to play for though !
Interesting article by Martin Baxter regarding UKIP's chance of any appreciable victory this May ::::
http://
Vote UKIP, get the SNP apparently.
Interesting quote from the above article :::
"putting their money where their mouths are, the bookmakers (Ladbrokes, betfair and Paddy Power) have UKIP likely to win at most five seats"
Sorry all you UKIP supporters !
Very little change from last month. although then it was a 30% chance of a Labour majority and now its 33%. Still all to play for though !
Interesting article by Martin Baxter regarding UKIP's chance of any appreciable victory this May ::::
http://
Vote UKIP, get the SNP apparently.
Interesting quote from the above article :::
"putting their money where their mouths are, the bookmakers (Ladbrokes, betfair and Paddy Power) have UKIP likely to win at most five seats"
Sorry all you UKIP supporters !
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Interesting reading, Mikey.
I'm still undecided about how to vote in the election. I am a Labour supporter but they always trail in a dismal third in my area, so I'm unsure how to use my vote. Last time, I voted LibDem which helped towards the desired result of getting the longstanding Tory out, but then the LDs waltzed off with the Cons, anyway which left me disappointed. The others are Ukip and Green. What to do?
I'm still undecided about how to vote in the election. I am a Labour supporter but they always trail in a dismal third in my area, so I'm unsure how to use my vote. Last time, I voted LibDem which helped towards the desired result of getting the longstanding Tory out, but then the LDs waltzed off with the Cons, anyway which left me disappointed. The others are Ukip and Green. What to do?
I don't think it is scaremongering. If in particular Labour voters switch in reasonable numbers to UKIP, then the main beneficiary is the SNP, often in second/ third place at the moment. Obviously this analysis is irrelevant in England; but the SNP can be expected to do stupidly well in the coming election. Hopefully Labour will hold on in Scotland, because you can bet that if the SNP hold the balance of power then by god they'll use that to get an even more inflated deal that benefits Scotland to the detriment of the UK.
Why have you moved away from your usual YouGov poll?
Oh wait a minute.
https:/
Oh wait a minute.
https:/
The polls are pretty meaningless this time. There are too many unusual factors and the polls will not be accurate.
1. The surge in the SNP vote at the expense of Labour.
2. The decimation of the LibDem vote, to the benefit of Labour.
3. The rise of UKIP mostly at the expense of the Conservatives.
4. The woeful performance of Labour in Opposition, making no advances on 2010.
5. The Conservatives making no advances on 2010 when they failed to get a majority.
No poll is going to accurately predict how all that will play out.
1. The surge in the SNP vote at the expense of Labour.
2. The decimation of the LibDem vote, to the benefit of Labour.
3. The rise of UKIP mostly at the expense of the Conservatives.
4. The woeful performance of Labour in Opposition, making no advances on 2010.
5. The Conservatives making no advances on 2010 when they failed to get a majority.
No poll is going to accurately predict how all that will play out.
AOg...I have been posting monthly update from Electoral Calculus for many months now. In the past they have been the most accurate as they take into account every Poll that is done, and them some.
So I ask my regular question yet again. Why are the positions of the Tory and Labour not reversed ? If the two Eds are so bad, and people never cease to tell me that they are, why is dave still lagging behind with 36 less predicted seats than Labour ? If this latest Poll is correct, dave will end up with 42 seats less than he did in 2010.
The other main point of this update is show that no matter how much noise UKIP makes, their input to the final result this May will almost certainly be miniscule.
I have been predicting this for nearly two years but there are still those on here that think that UKIP will "break the mould of British politics"
Well, on the strength of this evidence, its not going to happen anytime soon !
So I ask my regular question yet again. Why are the positions of the Tory and Labour not reversed ? If the two Eds are so bad, and people never cease to tell me that they are, why is dave still lagging behind with 36 less predicted seats than Labour ? If this latest Poll is correct, dave will end up with 42 seats less than he did in 2010.
The other main point of this update is show that no matter how much noise UKIP makes, their input to the final result this May will almost certainly be miniscule.
I have been predicting this for nearly two years but there are still those on here that think that UKIP will "break the mould of British politics"
Well, on the strength of this evidence, its not going to happen anytime soon !
Cloverjo....you have my sympathy with your voting problem !
I have been lucky to have always lived in a safe Labour constituency, ever since I first voted as a young man, so tactical voting has never been needed.
My advice, for what it is worth, is to continue to vote for the party that is most likely to unseat the Tories in your area. Vote for the LibDems again if you like....afterall, they are hardly likely to be in the same position as they were in 2010....ie they probably won't be tempted to prop up a minority Tory administration again, for two reasons. Firstly, they are not likely to have enough MPs, and secondly, they realised that to sup with the Devil, you need a long spoon, and they have learned their lesson, and what a hard lesson it has been for them.
I have been lucky to have always lived in a safe Labour constituency, ever since I first voted as a young man, so tactical voting has never been needed.
My advice, for what it is worth, is to continue to vote for the party that is most likely to unseat the Tories in your area. Vote for the LibDems again if you like....afterall, they are hardly likely to be in the same position as they were in 2010....ie they probably won't be tempted to prop up a minority Tory administration again, for two reasons. Firstly, they are not likely to have enough MPs, and secondly, they realised that to sup with the Devil, you need a long spoon, and they have learned their lesson, and what a hard lesson it has been for them.
Mikey, //I have been lucky to have always lived in a safe Labour constituency//
What's lucky about that? You complained quite recently that the council owned property in your area negatively affects the value of your house. It seems to me that Labour controlled areas are usually far more run down than those controlled by the Conservatives.
What's lucky about that? You complained quite recently that the council owned property in your area negatively affects the value of your house. It seems to me that Labour controlled areas are usually far more run down than those controlled by the Conservatives.
Jackdaw and Naomi... I am a Labour supporter and always have been, and I see no need to apologise or explain, so get used to it !
There has never been, within living memory of the vast majority of us, anything different from either Labour winning, or the Tories winning. That is what you get with a first-past-the-post system. The people had a chance to move to a different, fairer way of doing things in May 2011 but rejected any change, by a huge majority.
So until a change comes about, any third Party will always find it an uphill task to make much progress in any General Election. The Liberals got used to that many years ago, when they had MPs in single numbers. Now its UKIP's turn to try and they will fail in exactly the same way.
There is nothing whatsoever "negative" in this. I am just being realistic.
If Labour lose, then the Tories will have won, and vice versa.
Twas ever thus !
There has never been, within living memory of the vast majority of us, anything different from either Labour winning, or the Tories winning. That is what you get with a first-past-the-post system. The people had a chance to move to a different, fairer way of doing things in May 2011 but rejected any change, by a huge majority.
So until a change comes about, any third Party will always find it an uphill task to make much progress in any General Election. The Liberals got used to that many years ago, when they had MPs in single numbers. Now its UKIP's turn to try and they will fail in exactly the same way.
There is nothing whatsoever "negative" in this. I am just being realistic.
If Labour lose, then the Tories will have won, and vice versa.
Twas ever thus !
Mikey, //I am a Labour supporter and always have been, and I see no need to apologise or explain, so get used to it !//
No one asked you to apologise or explain and I am used to it – and I’d hazard a guess that everyone else is used to it too. I just wondered why, when you complain that the presence of Council owned properties reflect negatively upon your own, what’s so lucky about living in a Labour controlled area - but you didn’t tell me.
No one asked you to apologise or explain and I am used to it – and I’d hazard a guess that everyone else is used to it too. I just wondered why, when you complain that the presence of Council owned properties reflect negatively upon your own, what’s so lucky about living in a Labour controlled area - but you didn’t tell me.
Naomi...I wasn't aware that I complained about the Council houses, but you may have interpreted what I said to that effect. Council Houses exist all over the UK. I was in the Cotswolds a few weeks ago, and there they were, just a few streets away from the Gin and Jag set. !
Anyway, why would I allow a narrow view as that to effect my voting habits?
If I suddenly stopped voting Labour, held my nose and voted Tory, would that make all the millions of Council Houses go away ?
If any future Government wants to begin to get on top of one of our worst social problems, the lack of affordable homes, the building of more rental housing would be a good place to start. The main reason that we are in the position today over housing, is that a previous Tory administration allowed and indeed encourage local Councils to sell off their housing stock at bargain basement prices but then refused to allow the same Councils to use the money raised to build replacements. Even most Tories think that made no sense.
Anyway, why would I allow a narrow view as that to effect my voting habits?
If I suddenly stopped voting Labour, held my nose and voted Tory, would that make all the millions of Council Houses go away ?
If any future Government wants to begin to get on top of one of our worst social problems, the lack of affordable homes, the building of more rental housing would be a good place to start. The main reason that we are in the position today over housing, is that a previous Tory administration allowed and indeed encourage local Councils to sell off their housing stock at bargain basement prices but then refused to allow the same Councils to use the money raised to build replacements. Even most Tories think that made no sense.
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