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Election Turnout Decline And Immigration?
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Am I imagining it or has election turnout diminished to below 40% in the past couple of decades? Might this be in proportion to the cumulative total of migrants?
I have had no luck finding studies or news articles via search engine and hope you might have better luck.
After AOG's most recent thread, I wanted to pose the question of whether immigrants really do vote labour - as if that was the reason for his belief that Labour would adopt an "uncontrolled" attitude to it. What if, in fact, large numbers of them are not engaged with British politics at all? That would tend to drive down the election turnout percentages.
So, instead of British voters slowly losing interest, as the media tells us, it could be the same people turning out every time but (5yrs*200,000) additional people are present in the population stats but didn't bother to vote. (Between 1/55th and 1/60th drop in turnout per election according to how many millions UK population is.)
I view low turnout as a serious issue because it undermines the legitimacy of the government of the day, may inspire some existing voters to give up bothering and further repels the already-disengaged non-voter from ever getting involved.
With all the fuss about immigration, one would expect migrants to be exceptionally engaged in British politics. But are they?
I have had no luck finding studies or news articles via search engine and hope you might have better luck.
After AOG's most recent thread, I wanted to pose the question of whether immigrants really do vote labour - as if that was the reason for his belief that Labour would adopt an "uncontrolled" attitude to it. What if, in fact, large numbers of them are not engaged with British politics at all? That would tend to drive down the election turnout percentages.
So, instead of British voters slowly losing interest, as the media tells us, it could be the same people turning out every time but (5yrs*200,000) additional people are present in the population stats but didn't bother to vote. (Between 1/55th and 1/60th drop in turnout per election according to how many millions UK population is.)
I view low turnout as a serious issue because it undermines the legitimacy of the government of the day, may inspire some existing voters to give up bothering and further repels the already-disengaged non-voter from ever getting involved.
With all the fuss about immigration, one would expect migrants to be exceptionally engaged in British politics. But are they?
Answers
Turnout in General elections nationally has only once dipped below 60%, and then that was in 2001 when everyone knew the result before turning up. Clearly Labour was just going to win again. Otherwise, the low turnout is in Local and European elections, the AV referendum and the election for Police Commissioner
13:35 Thu 05th Mar 2015
// So, instead of British voters slowly losing interest //
I think that's the case - slow loss of interest. There isn't a great deal of difference between Labour and Tories these days. No-one really believes that much different will happen whoever wins.
I think it's one of the reasons the SNP and UKIP have become so popular. If they weren't around the turnout would probably be even lower.
I think that's the case - slow loss of interest. There isn't a great deal of difference between Labour and Tories these days. No-one really believes that much different will happen whoever wins.
I think it's one of the reasons the SNP and UKIP have become so popular. If they weren't around the turnout would probably be even lower.
That's a very multi faceted question Hypo. This Guardian articla and the report it mentions, might cast a little light:
The study says that although migrants will not vote as a bloc, previous patterns suggest they are likely to prefer parties viewed as positive about race equality and immigration – and are likely to turn their back on those engaged in hostile denunciations of migrants
http://
Of course, you will see the 'I don't believe the findings' brigade denounce anything the see which doesn't fit in with their political leanings.
The study says that although migrants will not vote as a bloc, previous patterns suggest they are likely to prefer parties viewed as positive about race equality and immigration – and are likely to turn their back on those engaged in hostile denunciations of migrants
http://
Of course, you will see the 'I don't believe the findings' brigade denounce anything the see which doesn't fit in with their political leanings.
/// Incredibly we are fast moving towards a situation where immigrants born overseas will hold the balance of power. In the coming general election the outcome could be decided by voters who were not raised here or who have barely contributed to our society. ///
/// That reality was spelled out in a report last week from the University of Manchester and the Migrant Rights Network, which revealed that almost four million foreign–born residents will be eligible to vote in May 2015, comprising about 10 per cent of the whole electorate. ///
/// Surveys have shown that at the 2010 general election 70 per cent of migrants voted Labour and just 16 per cent backed the Conservatives. That partly explains why Labour were so keen to open the floodgates. ///
/// With contemptible opportunism Labour saw a big electoral advantage in expanding their client base by the creation of a vast new army of loyal, antiTory foreign–born supporters. But this has meant that, tragically, our political system is now locked into a cycle of permanent demographic revolution. ///
Read the full report it is eye opening, but don't if your eyes are under the sand.
http://
/// That reality was spelled out in a report last week from the University of Manchester and the Migrant Rights Network, which revealed that almost four million foreign–born residents will be eligible to vote in May 2015, comprising about 10 per cent of the whole electorate. ///
/// Surveys have shown that at the 2010 general election 70 per cent of migrants voted Labour and just 16 per cent backed the Conservatives. That partly explains why Labour were so keen to open the floodgates. ///
/// With contemptible opportunism Labour saw a big electoral advantage in expanding their client base by the creation of a vast new army of loyal, antiTory foreign–born supporters. But this has meant that, tragically, our political system is now locked into a cycle of permanent demographic revolution. ///
Read the full report it is eye opening, but don't if your eyes are under the sand.
http://
@Ludwig
I am genuinely torn as to how to vote this time. I *do* want at least one opportunity to vote on EU membership in my lifetime (exit for a time, re-entry on better terms after a trial period outside) but I distrust the Tories, no matter how good the economy gets. If labour had offered the referendum, they'd have my vote and I'd accept their other shortcomings. UKIP - not for me. Greens - I *still* don't know what their underlying alignment is, probably further left than I'd like.
It really bothers me that UKIP, SNP, DUP, Plaid and Greens will end up with casting votes or coalition leverage and wield power.
(cf Borgen)
I am genuinely torn as to how to vote this time. I *do* want at least one opportunity to vote on EU membership in my lifetime (exit for a time, re-entry on better terms after a trial period outside) but I distrust the Tories, no matter how good the economy gets. If labour had offered the referendum, they'd have my vote and I'd accept their other shortcomings. UKIP - not for me. Greens - I *still* don't know what their underlying alignment is, probably further left than I'd like.
It really bothers me that UKIP, SNP, DUP, Plaid and Greens will end up with casting votes or coalition leverage and wield power.
(cf Borgen)
Thanks for the links, Zacs and AOG.
It seems the Polish are in two minds: "natural conservatives" but likely to vote Labour because of the anti-immigrant policies of some others.
http://
It seems the Polish are in two minds: "natural conservatives" but likely to vote Labour because of the anti-immigrant policies of some others.
http://
Turnout in General elections nationally has only once dipped below 60%, and then that was in 2001 when everyone knew the result before turning up. Clearly Labour was just going to win again. Otherwise, the low turnout is in Local and European elections, the AV referendum and the election for Police Commissioners.
Incidentally if there is a link between increased immigration and lower turnout figures, it may also be interesting to note that lower turnout appears to benefit Labour as a rule. Most of the seats with low turnout go to Labour (47/60 at the last election).
Incidentally if there is a link between increased immigration and lower turnout figures, it may also be interesting to note that lower turnout appears to benefit Labour as a rule. Most of the seats with low turnout go to Labour (47/60 at the last election).
@jim360
I appreciate the correction. Now that I think about it, what I was recalling was the "40% of 60%" thought which came in to my mind after some Tory on the telly said they had the "overwhelming support of the electorate".
We'll see how they fare in May and whether fears of 'kippers eroding their share play out or if 'kippers are reformed apathy-party voters.
I appreciate the correction. Now that I think about it, what I was recalling was the "40% of 60%" thought which came in to my mind after some Tory on the telly said they had the "overwhelming support of the electorate".
We'll see how they fare in May and whether fears of 'kippers eroding their share play out or if 'kippers are reformed apathy-party voters.
AOG, I never said they were but, as usual, you just go ahead and read what you think I (and other people) have written.
Debate, as i have said before, depends upon someone at least presenting some facts for the other person/s to argue against.
If you prefer to just rant away, then that is your right. Enjoy.
Debate, as i have said before, depends upon someone at least presenting some facts for the other person/s to argue against.
If you prefer to just rant away, then that is your right. Enjoy.
@zacs
AOG's rant of the day you've already seen. For anyone who hasn't…
http://
AOG's rant of the day you've already seen. For anyone who hasn't…
http://
Something Mikey's electoral calculus poll has revealed, but hasn't really been emphasised, is that a bulk of "kippers" appear effectively to have come from the Lib Dems. More precisely, I suppose, people are abandoning the Lib Dems and returning to Labour/ Tory at the same time as Labour/ Tory voters are migrating to UKIP, so that the net change in Labour/ Tory voters is minimal but UKIP's rise is coming at the expense of the Lib Dems.
2015 is a tough election to call but there is good reason to expect that, again, all the "protest parties" will fall short overall, except the SNP perhaps because they have the advantage by definition of locally concentrated support.
I am hoping to use 2015 to kick up a fuss about the rotten electoral system we have, but so far I don't think many people are that interested. Secretly, or not-so-secretly, I think many are pleased that UKIP is about to get royally shafted.
2015 is a tough election to call but there is good reason to expect that, again, all the "protest parties" will fall short overall, except the SNP perhaps because they have the advantage by definition of locally concentrated support.
I am hoping to use 2015 to kick up a fuss about the rotten electoral system we have, but so far I don't think many people are that interested. Secretly, or not-so-secretly, I think many are pleased that UKIP is about to get royally shafted.
Thanks, jim. Seems I must pay more attention to Mikey's pollster posts, in future.
It is, frankly, quite amusing to witness Clegga strutting aroun and making a big deal about LibDem voteshare when, as your analysis (of Mikey's analysis?) points out, they were protest votes, all along.
Last time around, I came dangerously close to "I haven't voted for this lot yet, why not give them a go?" but they didn't field a candidate and it's a safe Tory seat in any case, so Labour was the only protest vote option.
I did get enthused by the AV issue and was deeplu disappointed that the result was based on such a low turnout and in spite of my qualms about minority parties being key to individual issues ("that's democracy", as Zacs put it - more on that story later)
http://
Got to go out, things to do. Keep the replies coming, any and all relevant statistics welcome. I'll be back this evening.
It is, frankly, quite amusing to witness Clegga strutting aroun and making a big deal about LibDem voteshare when, as your analysis (of Mikey's analysis?) points out, they were protest votes, all along.
Last time around, I came dangerously close to "I haven't voted for this lot yet, why not give them a go?" but they didn't field a candidate and it's a safe Tory seat in any case, so Labour was the only protest vote option.
I did get enthused by the AV issue and was deeplu disappointed that the result was based on such a low turnout and in spite of my qualms about minority parties being key to individual issues ("that's democracy", as Zacs put it - more on that story later)
http://
Got to go out, things to do. Keep the replies coming, any and all relevant statistics welcome. I'll be back this evening.
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