Mikey, Seen This One?

[ToraToraTora]

http://news.sky.com/story/1464139/tories-surge-ahead-in-new-election-poll
ICM has Tories 6pts clear!

[retrocop]

TTT
The ICM poll doesn't figure in Mikey's reading so no doubt you will be rubbished by a counter attack from a poll that is more to his liking.

[Svejk]

commissioned by the Guardian. I suspect so they can report a massive Labour surge after this week's debate.

[Jackdaw33]

I think that what this poll shows, if it shows anything, is that UKIP supporters are coming to realise that the only realistic way of getting the referendum they want is by voting Tory, so they are starting to drift back. The combined Tory/UKIP vote stands at 46%, way ahead of Labour.

[jim360]

Yes, given the fall in UKIP vote share compared with other polls, this might be as Jackdaw says -- a good sign for the Tories, undeniably. Don't get too excited just yet, though! This may just translate into some more emphatic victories in seats the Tories were already winning, depending on where the ex-UKIP voters were living.

[Svejk]

If anyone believes that UKIP's support has halved in a week, I give up.

[jim360]

That's what this particular poll is showing. If it is true, then UKIP voters are returning to the Tories, perhaps in resignation.

As polls have margins of error, and in particular could underestimate support for (more) minor parties, then it's probable that UKIP support hasn't plummeted so much.

But any Tory "surge" has to come from somewhere. Ain't gonna be the SNP, and Labour support appears steady, leaving the Lib Dems (but they have already collapsed in support, probably) and UKIP.

As I've said earlier, for admittedly cynical reasons I hope that UKIP's vote share hasn't collapsed. We'll see if it stays strong in the actual poll. Svejk, you'll be pleased to see that a second poll reported in the same article shows UKIP support as strong as ever, at 15 +/- 3 %.

[ToraToraTora]

"That's what this particular poll is showing. If it is true, then UKIP voters are returning to the Tories, perhaps in resignation." - mid term core voters for the main parties are quite prepared to give them a kick, by using EU elections, council elections and bye elections but when it's the big show the last thing they want is the opposition so this is as expected, the core vote will come back, one early sign perhaps but bad news for UKIP and Labour.

[naomi24]

It’s one thing to vote for a minor party in a by-election but that doesn’t usually carry through to general elections. I imagine that rather than waste their vote or register a protest vote, most Ukip voters will return to one of the major players in May.

[Svejk]

We shall see in May. These polls mean nothing.

[Jackdaw33]

I agree with Naomi. As an ardent Eurosceptic my heart says vote UKIP, but my head says vote Tory.

[askyourgran]

I think the same way Jackdaw

[retrocop]

naomi
I am exactly one as you have described. I am very anti-Europe and I did not approve of the Labour open door immigration policy. I realise my vote for UKIP is a wasted vote but will not give my cross to Labour.Always been a Tory voter but very disallusioned with their performance recently with certain issues that UKIP are not afraid to front. I will continue to vote Tory because,at least, they may offer a referendum on Europe if they keep their word.

[lindapalmara]

You beat me to it TTT. I had a link ready from the BBC. When I got up today. Interesting. Maybe the report that Labours Manifesto is already unreeling since yesterday's launch. Like so many policy announcements this last week which didn't last the day!

[mikey4444]

No I hadn't seen this, so I am obliged to you ! I rarely watch SKY.

Here is another Poll ! ::::

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/uk-polling-report-average-2

[mikey4444]

Naomi...I agree with you at 23:13 ! We sometimes agree don't we ?

[naomi24]

We do indeed - especially when you talk like a Conservative. ;o)

[DTCwordfan]

naomi, with comments like that, the air will be turning blue in Swansea this morning.....

[naomi24]

Haaaaaa!

[mikey4444]

Naomi...I am deeply wounded !

[mikey4444]

But you are correct of course. Most of the support for UKIP has come from the Tories, and if its going to ebb away, then it would seem that it will retreat back to the Tories. After all, Farage himself, and his only two MP's were Tories, not so long ago.