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Interesting Article From Peter Kellner Of Yougov
https:/ /yougov .co.uk/ news/20 15/04/2 9/why-i ts-so-h ard-cam eron-wi n/
It seems that dave has a mountain to climb, if he is to remain in Number Ten after next week. Look at the third option. At present, Labour and the Tories are neck and neck at 280 seats each in YouGov Polls. Its about seats won, not how popular a party is that counts, something lots of people have perhaps not realised....its the arithmetic !
Not good news for dave. Kellner and others have been predicting this situation for ages. It looks to me as if we may have another, fairly immediate 2nd Election....unheard of to my knowledge.
It seems that dave has a mountain to climb, if he is to remain in Number Ten after next week. Look at the third option. At present, Labour and the Tories are neck and neck at 280 seats each in YouGov Polls. Its about seats won, not how popular a party is that counts, something lots of people have perhaps not realised....its the arithmetic !
Not good news for dave. Kellner and others have been predicting this situation for ages. It looks to me as if we may have another, fairly immediate 2nd Election....unheard of to my knowledge.
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For more on marking an answer as the "Best Answer", please visit our FAQ.As I have said before here I don't see how Cameron can govern in most likely predicted scenarios simply because of the likely majority of the progressive parties.
He can rant and rave all he likes about Labour and the SNP in government together but those parties don't need any sort of alliance naturally to oppose a Tory minority govt or LibDem coalition
He can rant and rave all he likes about Labour and the SNP in government together but those parties don't need any sort of alliance naturally to oppose a Tory minority govt or LibDem coalition
Mush...what Kellner is saying is that dave will have to win the post Election Queens Speech Vote. If he doesn't, he is honour bound to resign and HM will then ask Ed if he can form a Government. It could be that he can't either, so a 2nd Election will be needed. Dave as the sitting PM will remain in post, until this second Election.
My personal view is that I agree with Kellner, and that this scenario probably won't happen, and Ed will form a Government. But unless he has continuing loyalty from the other Parties supporting him, another Election will be needed in the autumn....just like in 1974.
My personal view is that I agree with Kellner, and that this scenario probably won't happen, and Ed will form a Government. But unless he has continuing loyalty from the other Parties supporting him, another Election will be needed in the autumn....just like in 1974.
When push comes to shove next week Mush, I have a feeling that the SNP won't get quite as many seats as is being predicted, but still a sizable number, no doubt. But its not really going to matter much, as whether its l
Labour or the SNP, it will be still be vehemently anti-Tory, and will amount to much the same thing.
Very interesting times we are having at the moment, as I am sure you will agree !
Labour or the SNP, it will be still be vehemently anti-Tory, and will amount to much the same thing.
Very interesting times we are having at the moment, as I am sure you will agree !
"rock star US statistician" Nate Silver says he doesn't know; it'll depend on alliances btu he doesn't think the Tories can do it. The question is: is the two-party system at an end?
http:// www.bbc .co.uk/ news/el ection- 2015-32 488206
http://
jno...to answer your last question....yes, it is at an end, at least temporarily. But there can be only one PM after May 7th and it will still be a choice between Ed and dave....so maybe it isn't that different after all.
I saw Sturgeon being interviewed a few minutes ago, on Ch 4 News. She came over as the Woman to Watch. She has more fire in her belly than Alex Salmond ever had, and it shows, in spades.
A King Maker without any doubt.
I saw Sturgeon being interviewed a few minutes ago, on Ch 4 News. She came over as the Woman to Watch. She has more fire in her belly than Alex Salmond ever had, and it shows, in spades.
A King Maker without any doubt.
The big problem we face now, apparently, is that two-party politics is over, but -- and I'm sorry if this sounds like flogging a dead horse, but it is important -- the manner in which we elect our politicians is not geared towards minor parties so that, to some extent, the "wrong ones" are going to play a larger role. Here, I mean wrong ones in the sense of parties that are going to have more role than the public wanted, not necessarily the ones with the wrong policies. An example is the Lib Dems, who look set to be severely hit but still hold on to 20-odd MPs despite being predicted to have a lower vote share than UKIP, who will probably only end up with a couple of MPs. Or the SNP, whose concentrated vote will deliver them at least 40 and probably 50 MPs, which is twice as many as they would have got in a purely Proportional system. Incidentally the Green Party may also get
I'm not saying that we should switch to PR (giving no escape from coalition and with no accountability, pure Proportional Representation is a system that is in practice unsound), but if two-party politics is over then it's time that the system changes to better reflect this. It just does not at the moment. We should at least reconsider the question of electoral reform in light of the election result.
Of course, it may be academic if suddenly one of the main parties latches on to new-found support and delivers a landslide -- but that's unlikely.
I'm not saying that we should switch to PR (giving no escape from coalition and with no accountability, pure Proportional Representation is a system that is in practice unsound), but if two-party politics is over then it's time that the system changes to better reflect this. It just does not at the moment. We should at least reconsider the question of electoral reform in light of the election result.
Of course, it may be academic if suddenly one of the main parties latches on to new-found support and delivers a landslide -- but that's unlikely.
Agreed, it's what we're stuck with now. But the SNP favour electoral reform (specially, the Single Transferable Vote). They may well at least force the issue back into the open as part of any deals, coalition-based or otherwise.
I don't see FPTP staying unchallenged for much longer. The AV referendum appears not to have been decisive after all. Good thing too, as there is more to electoral reform than AV.
I don't see FPTP staying unchallenged for much longer. The AV referendum appears not to have been decisive after all. Good thing too, as there is more to electoral reform than AV.
//But comparisons between '74 and '15 are difficult to make. No representation from Plaid Cymru and UKIP had yet be to invented. //
are you saying then that the Rt Hon members for Caernarfon and Merioneth,as elected in February 1974 - plus the celebrated Gwynfor Evans who re-took his Carmarthen seat that October, are a figment of imagination???
are you saying then that the Rt Hon members for Caernarfon and Merioneth,as elected in February 1974 - plus the celebrated Gwynfor Evans who re-took his Carmarthen seat that October, are a figment of imagination???
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