Editor's Blog3 mins ago
Discredited Opinion Polling
I have just heard that the BPC (British Polling Council) announce that
an independent enquiry will be held into the polling forecasts they
provided to the media & others.
They could well begin with my own experience-
I received a phone call asking what my voting intentions were. After
telling them that I had an unlisted phone number & was registered with
the TPservice I was told a computer had dialled my number.
To get them off the line I said I was voting Green.
The next day after leaving my barber a woman with a clipboad
stopped me to ask for my political views. When I asked why she had chosen me to interview she said I looked like a B2 (?) and this time I told her I
would be supporting the Lib Dems!
Why do the newspapers etc waste so much money paying 'professionals'
to collect what is rubbish?
an independent enquiry will be held into the polling forecasts they
provided to the media & others.
They could well begin with my own experience-
I received a phone call asking what my voting intentions were. After
telling them that I had an unlisted phone number & was registered with
the TPservice I was told a computer had dialled my number.
To get them off the line I said I was voting Green.
The next day after leaving my barber a woman with a clipboad
stopped me to ask for my political views. When I asked why she had chosen me to interview she said I looked like a B2 (?) and this time I told her I
would be supporting the Lib Dems!
Why do the newspapers etc waste so much money paying 'professionals'
to collect what is rubbish?
Answers
I don't want the polls to be right, it would take the fun out of election night.
18:39 Fri 08th May 2015
I always make a point of not telling my real intention if asked who I will vote for. Also I tell any of the parties that knock on my door that I am voting for them. It gets rid of them faster.
Same with charity collectors, I tell them all '' Yes, I already support you via a monthly deduction from my bank account''
Same with charity collectors, I tell them all '' Yes, I already support you via a monthly deduction from my bank account''
Graudian...I am unsure why you had to lie on both occasions ?
In the first instance, you could simply have replaced the receiver, and on the 2nd, politely told the interviewer that you would rather not say.
I have been Polled many times, the latest earlier this week by 'phone.
I had no problem in telling people the truth, but if I was shy about that, I would have refused to answer, as is my right and as was your right as well.
The issue of people lying to Interviewers is obviously an issue, but all Polls have a margin of error, to take that into account. Perhaps that margin needs to be larger.
But if lying to Pollsters is an issue, why did not a similar number lie to the Pollsters gathering info for the Exit Poll. It seems counterintuitive to think that people would lie in some Polls and not in others.
In the first instance, you could simply have replaced the receiver, and on the 2nd, politely told the interviewer that you would rather not say.
I have been Polled many times, the latest earlier this week by 'phone.
I had no problem in telling people the truth, but if I was shy about that, I would have refused to answer, as is my right and as was your right as well.
The issue of people lying to Interviewers is obviously an issue, but all Polls have a margin of error, to take that into account. Perhaps that margin needs to be larger.
But if lying to Pollsters is an issue, why did not a similar number lie to the Pollsters gathering info for the Exit Poll. It seems counterintuitive to think that people would lie in some Polls and not in others.
It seems to me that an awful lot of people made up their minds who to vote at the last minute. There appears to be ample evidence of this.
I have two friends, brothers actually, that were part of the count at a big constituency in leafy Surrey last night, and both have said that they came across many Ballot papers, where people had crossed their first choice out, and replaced it with another. In those instances, the Ballot papers were put to one side and further examined. A decision was then made as to who to award that persons vote to.
I have two friends, brothers actually, that were part of the count at a big constituency in leafy Surrey last night, and both have said that they came across many Ballot papers, where people had crossed their first choice out, and replaced it with another. In those instances, the Ballot papers were put to one side and further examined. A decision was then made as to who to award that persons vote to.
Mikey: //where people had crossed their first choice out, and replaced it with another. In those instances, the Ballot papers were put to one side and further examined. A decision was then made as to who to award that persons vote to.//
Does that mean that some of the votes would of gone to the first choice even though it was crossed out? How can that be justified?
Does that mean that some of the votes would of gone to the first choice even though it was crossed out? How can that be justified?
Mikey, surely those papers would be classed as 'spoilt'?
This is what should happen.
//I've made a mistake and voted for the wrong person. Can I vote again?
Yes, providing you haven't already posted your ballot paper in the box. Return to the desk and tell staff what has happened. They'll be able to cancel your ballot paper and issue you with a new one.//
This is what should happen.
//I've made a mistake and voted for the wrong person. Can I vote again?
Yes, providing you haven't already posted your ballot paper in the box. Return to the desk and tell staff what has happened. They'll be able to cancel your ballot paper and issue you with a new one.//
Xeronema...I can't answer your question other than to say the representatives of the Parties concerned are part of the vetting procedure, after the Ballot paper is identified.
It is they, together with Election Officials, that decide what happens to the papers. From what the brothers have told me, almost all of those papers were awarded to the 2nd Party, as long as it was perfectly clear as to what the voters really meant. Where it wasn't clear, and nobody could agree, the Ballot papers was put into the "spoiled papers" pile. Actually, its these "spoiled papers" that are of interest where a second or third count is needed.
Ballot papers that were not used and were marked "spoiled" were the ones where idiots had put comments on the ballot paper. One that my friends remembered very clearly from last night was one where someone had voted Tory and then proceeded to write crude and scatalogical comments about another candidate. Another that comes to kind is where someone had placed a large bogie, instead of a cross !
It is they, together with Election Officials, that decide what happens to the papers. From what the brothers have told me, almost all of those papers were awarded to the 2nd Party, as long as it was perfectly clear as to what the voters really meant. Where it wasn't clear, and nobody could agree, the Ballot papers was put into the "spoiled papers" pile. Actually, its these "spoiled papers" that are of interest where a second or third count is needed.
Ballot papers that were not used and were marked "spoiled" were the ones where idiots had put comments on the ballot paper. One that my friends remembered very clearly from last night was one where someone had voted Tory and then proceeded to write crude and scatalogical comments about another candidate. Another that comes to kind is where someone had placed a large bogie, instead of a cross !
I think that polls are generally trustworthy up to uncertainties. The problem lately is that they are becoming a huge part of the story. A poll in early September gave the Yes vote to Scottish Independence a lead, making those who wanted Scotland to stay part of the UK sit up and take notice and then go and vote. And for the last three weeks the talk especially from the Tories has been filled with how inevitable the SNP's victory in Scotland was, so in a hung parliament they would wield massive influence, so watch out England! With that message being shouted for weeks on end perhaps it is no wonder that enough people listened. It's possible that the Tory victory represents people scared into voting for them for fear of the prediction coming true.
The polls weren't necessarily wrong; but the nature of a prediction is that if you are aware of it then it changes the narrative. The thing that needs to change the most about polls, then, is for them to become less of the story themselves.
The polls weren't necessarily wrong; but the nature of a prediction is that if you are aware of it then it changes the narrative. The thing that needs to change the most about polls, then, is for them to become less of the story themselves.
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