ChatterBank0 min ago
Greece?
38 Answers
well the fiscal deadline came and went, and nothing happened.
Greece didn't pay, and Mr Tsipras is still negotiating with his creditors.
http://
I guess the world waits now for the referendum - although I'm not entirely sure what it's for or what it will achieve.
What's next?
Greece didn't pay, and Mr Tsipras is still negotiating with his creditors.
http://
I guess the world waits now for the referendum - although I'm not entirely sure what it's for or what it will achieve.
What's next?
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Nothing was expected to happen immediately.
It seems plain that the Greek government was gambling on the EU and the banks not countenancing a Greek exit from the EU under any circumstances.
It seems plain now that that was a miscalculation, and they are now blinking first.
The referendum is supposedly on accepting the terms of the country's creditors. But things may have moved on by Sunday. In which case the referendum might be called off, or it might be that the government will ask people to vote "yes" instead of "no" . Asking for the latter originally was a seemingly crazy thing to do. The problem they have is that if things stay as they are and the Greeks vote "Yes" then really Tsipras would have to resign.
(That would be a problem for him, but probably a great relief to most sensible people)
I suspect that somehow a fudged compromise will be reached. Greece won't leave the Euro, but that will only be because its government will have had to make compromises, which looks like it is already happening.
It seems plain that the Greek government was gambling on the EU and the banks not countenancing a Greek exit from the EU under any circumstances.
It seems plain now that that was a miscalculation, and they are now blinking first.
The referendum is supposedly on accepting the terms of the country's creditors. But things may have moved on by Sunday. In which case the referendum might be called off, or it might be that the government will ask people to vote "yes" instead of "no" . Asking for the latter originally was a seemingly crazy thing to do. The problem they have is that if things stay as they are and the Greeks vote "Yes" then really Tsipras would have to resign.
(That would be a problem for him, but probably a great relief to most sensible people)
I suspect that somehow a fudged compromise will be reached. Greece won't leave the Euro, but that will only be because its government will have had to make compromises, which looks like it is already happening.
no matter what, the eussr doesnt want greece out, it will keep them in one way or another...theyre as desperate as if not not more so than the bubbles...and even if greece did go back to the drachma and left the eussr, they would get dragged back in at a later date....the eussr wont rest until it has every country in europe under its total control, that is their ultimate position and aim, by hook or by crook...thats the nature of all empire builders past present and in the future.
I see no reason why Greece should not leave the Euro but stay in the EU, that is probably the best for them. It would be extremely foolish of them to stay in the Euro to be honest, a basket case economy labelled at junk status (with only a population of 11m) tied to Europe's Powerhouse - just not workable.
Who knows what will actually happen though, either way it will not be good for the Greeks.
Who knows what will actually happen though, either way it will not be good for the Greeks.
This whole saga exposes the pitiful state of the media in informing its consumers: Sensational headlines (generalisation), Zero details.
The talks to reach agreement were abandoned after the last Greek proposal where the situation was :
the primary budget surplus till 2022 was agree upon,but the method on how the Greek govt would get to those budget surpluses was not deemed credible by 'imf ecb eec' ('troika') ie Greece suggested corporate tax rise from 26% to 29%/troika only wanted it rise to 28%, Greece suggested a one-off 1% tax on corporations of 12% of net income troika NO,,Greece wanted not to decrease pension expenditure as much as trioka wanted , Greece did not increase VAT/consumption tax to degree troika wanted.
So negotiations were abandoned and a bailout which would have been be used primarily, if not exclusively, to pay Greece's creditors - the IMF ECB and the other member states of the eurozone
There is no basis in law or under european treaties to exclude someone from EURO peremtorily ,the Greek govt are not putting a no vote forward as leaving the euro, but a refusal to accept the diktats of the troika. ( but of course it would not be the first time government's did not adhere to the internation treaties they signed when it suited them when they are defending the interests of capitalists.)
The talks to reach agreement were abandoned after the last Greek proposal where the situation was :
the primary budget surplus till 2022 was agree upon,but the method on how the Greek govt would get to those budget surpluses was not deemed credible by 'imf ecb eec' ('troika') ie Greece suggested corporate tax rise from 26% to 29%/troika only wanted it rise to 28%, Greece suggested a one-off 1% tax on corporations of 12% of net income troika NO,,Greece wanted not to decrease pension expenditure as much as trioka wanted , Greece did not increase VAT/consumption tax to degree troika wanted.
So negotiations were abandoned and a bailout which would have been be used primarily, if not exclusively, to pay Greece's creditors - the IMF ECB and the other member states of the eurozone
There is no basis in law or under european treaties to exclude someone from EURO peremtorily ,the Greek govt are not putting a no vote forward as leaving the euro, but a refusal to accept the diktats of the troika. ( but of course it would not be the first time government's did not adhere to the internation treaties they signed when it suited them when they are defending the interests of capitalists.)
No there certainly is no basis in the treaties to expel a nation from using the euro. However that will not be necessary because of the simple fact that Greece will not have any euros to use. No other nation or private corporation is going to trade with either the Greek government or any company based in Greece. The Greeks have very little to sell and need to import many essentials and quite simply they will not have the hard currency to do so.
In a similar way there is nothing in any of the treaties which provides for a constant supply of cash to be shipped from the countries that have it to one that does not. The EU and the ECB has imposed conditions before this courtesy can continue and the Greek government has refused to agree to those conditions.
Greece should never have joined (or indeed have been allowed to join) the euro. Having done so they should have left the euro in a controlled fashion about three years ago. The end game here (which, if it doesn't happen now will happen sooner or later) is that the Greek government will have no cash to pay its (over staffed and inefficient) public sector. They will have to issue promisory notes (or new Drachmas) instead. These will be traded as cash in Greece but will be of no value elsewhere. They will then need to establish their new Drachmas as a currency which can be traded internationally and these will be worth, in real terms, considerably less than the euros they replaced.
In a similar way there is nothing in any of the treaties which provides for a constant supply of cash to be shipped from the countries that have it to one that does not. The EU and the ECB has imposed conditions before this courtesy can continue and the Greek government has refused to agree to those conditions.
Greece should never have joined (or indeed have been allowed to join) the euro. Having done so they should have left the euro in a controlled fashion about three years ago. The end game here (which, if it doesn't happen now will happen sooner or later) is that the Greek government will have no cash to pay its (over staffed and inefficient) public sector. They will have to issue promisory notes (or new Drachmas) instead. These will be traded as cash in Greece but will be of no value elsewhere. They will then need to establish their new Drachmas as a currency which can be traded internationally and these will be worth, in real terms, considerably less than the euros they replaced.
Quite so, baz. And the same people who allowed it are now imposing strict conditions on Greece before they lend them any more money. One way or another I imagine the Tsipras government will fall and the EU will once again have deposed a democratically elected government which it does not like.
I'm not sure what the Greek government's next move will be should the referendum be cancelled. (In fact I'm not sure what their next move will be if it is held, other than to imagine Tsipras and his mates will resign in the event of a "Yes" vote). In that event (which is a strong possibility after the Greeks have faced a week with their banks shut) I imagine the EU will instal a "caretaker" government.
I'm not sure what the Greek government's next move will be should the referendum be cancelled. (In fact I'm not sure what their next move will be if it is held, other than to imagine Tsipras and his mates will resign in the event of a "Yes" vote). In that event (which is a strong possibility after the Greeks have faced a week with their banks shut) I imagine the EU will instal a "caretaker" government.
Of course, jno, that's the ideal scenario. It is in nobody's interest for Greece (or any nation for that matter) to be beholden to the EU/IMF forever and a day. And that's what will follow if Greece remains in the euro. Greece needs to accept that it is not a big player, revert to using a sensible currency appropriate to its economy and over which it has full control, devalue considerably (in line with its economy) and encourage people to buy its goods and services.
But that's precisely what the Euromaniacs are afraid of.
But that's precisely what the Euromaniacs are afraid of.
bazwillrun>//"Greece should never have joined (or indeed have been allowed to join) the euro "... but NJ most of us know why they were allowed and did... //
New Judge>"Quite so, baz."
Would you both explain who "they" were and what "they" did? ...for those of us not in the know please.
New Judge, your first post promotes your usual 'courtesy' of Capitalism, with any mitigating circumstances conveniently ignored.
New Judge>"Quite so, baz."
Would you both explain who "they" were and what "they" did? ...for those of us not in the know please.
New Judge, your first post promotes your usual 'courtesy' of Capitalism, with any mitigating circumstances conveniently ignored.
Most economists I've heard seem to think a reversion to an old currency or the introduction of some new one would be so catastrophically painful that it is simply a non-starter.
Greece will certainly not leave the EU: no one wants that.
It will be fudged, sorted or whatever.
Greece certainly should not have been allowed to join the euro it's true, but they're in now. And the only way they will leave is if they are ejected, which may happen but as observed above I think it's unlikely
Greece will certainly not leave the EU: no one wants that.
It will be fudged, sorted or whatever.
Greece certainly should not have been allowed to join the euro it's true, but they're in now. And the only way they will leave is if they are ejected, which may happen but as observed above I think it's unlikely
"They" are who I term the "Euromaniacs". Collectively the individuals and institutions who are determined to see the EU as a single nation state (which is usually known as "the European Project" – not my term) and will pursue that aim regardless of the consequences for the individual nations or the 500m or so people who live in them.
What they have done (as far as this issue is concerned) is to devise and introduce a single currency which is clearly not fit for purpose (a fact that they were adequately warned of before the euro’s introduction) because they know that central control of a nation’s currency effectively provides almost total control. And so it has been with Greece. They allowed Greece to join when it was clearly not a qualifying nation. They have tried to impose their will upon a nation stuck with the use of the currency with threats of dire consequences should they not fall into line. “They” have already deposed one Greek Prime Minister. In 2011 George Papandreou had the temerity to propose a referendum on issues very similar (though four years less serious) to those faced by Greece now. He was swiftly usurped in what can only be described as a coup. The Euromaniacs despise national electorates being given a say on how their countries are run. They despise referendums and when they are held but produce the “wrong” answer they are held again…and again. This is at the heart of the latest breakdown. Juncker says he feels “betrayed” by the Greek government reverting to a referendum.
I believe the Greeks have been complicit in their plight but the root cause of their problems is their membership of the euro. “They” allowed (and even encouraged) that when it was clearly in nobody’s long-term interests. But such is the EU. Individuals’ interests must not be allowed to derail the project no matter how much impoverishment ensues.
I’m afraid I don’t understand your last paragraph, SevenOP. I don’t know what it is I have to mitigate.
What they have done (as far as this issue is concerned) is to devise and introduce a single currency which is clearly not fit for purpose (a fact that they were adequately warned of before the euro’s introduction) because they know that central control of a nation’s currency effectively provides almost total control. And so it has been with Greece. They allowed Greece to join when it was clearly not a qualifying nation. They have tried to impose their will upon a nation stuck with the use of the currency with threats of dire consequences should they not fall into line. “They” have already deposed one Greek Prime Minister. In 2011 George Papandreou had the temerity to propose a referendum on issues very similar (though four years less serious) to those faced by Greece now. He was swiftly usurped in what can only be described as a coup. The Euromaniacs despise national electorates being given a say on how their countries are run. They despise referendums and when they are held but produce the “wrong” answer they are held again…and again. This is at the heart of the latest breakdown. Juncker says he feels “betrayed” by the Greek government reverting to a referendum.
I believe the Greeks have been complicit in their plight but the root cause of their problems is their membership of the euro. “They” allowed (and even encouraged) that when it was clearly in nobody’s long-term interests. But such is the EU. Individuals’ interests must not be allowed to derail the project no matter how much impoverishment ensues.
I’m afraid I don’t understand your last paragraph, SevenOP. I don’t know what it is I have to mitigate.
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