A Nice Villa On The Shore Of Lake Geneva And A Bulging Swiss Bank Account.

[sandyRoe]

Would Assad and his cronies be readier to go if provisions for a safe and secure retirement were in place? As things are, they know if they don't hang together and continue to fight they'll assuredly hang separately.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/19/world/middleeast/syria-talks-isis.html

[Svejk]

If he was motivated by such considerations could he not have abandoned his people to your Islamist friends a long time ago?

[sandyRoe]

Leaving aside the issue of whether I have 'Islamic friends'or not, the point of my question still stands. Assad and his cronies will fight like cornered rats because they have nowhere else to go. Well, apart from Putin's Russia.

[Svejk]

Now that absolutely everything is going his way, the US (and presumably UK) are no longer clamouring for his head. Indeed now, he can remain as President, but would he stop killing the terrorists we train and arm. Amazing how Russian missile systems have improved his standing with the western world.

[Svejk]

Cornered rats? In the week he has established no fly zones for US and presumably allied aircraft. No Sandy, the tide has well and truly turned and the end is nigh for your friends. And now they're scrabbling around trying to save their pet terrorists.

[Svejk]

Cornered rats? In the week he has established no fly zones for US and presumably allied aircraft. No Sandy, the tide has well and truly turned and the end is nigh for your friends. And now they're scrabbling around trying to save their pet terrorists.

[ichkeria]

Russia doesn't want Assad to go - either to Lake Geneva (some hope) or more likely the same suburb of Moscow that houses Ukrainian ex-president Yanukovych - unless they can be sure that he will leave behind a regime that is willing to allow them to keep Tartus as their Mediterranean naval base.
That is what it will come down to in the end.
There seems - in fact there is - little or no prospect of Assad and his family winning a democratic election in Syria, with or without the participation of the vastly growing Syrian diaspora. It is inconceivable that he would ever be involved in such elections, if only for practical purposes. What would work, presumably, would be a deal where Russia was persuaded that a post-Assad Syria would not be inimical to it, in which case they could take him to Moscow and a new start could be made.
Saying that there can be no solution involving Assad is not a bargaining position, it is simply a reality.

[Khandro]

The Alawites are loyal to him and he is loyal to them, if he were to run away and they were to lay down their arms, in the present circumstances they would be slaughtered to a man.

[ichkeria]

And in any case, who would have him?
Not Russia, as I pointed out above. They don't give a damn about him unless he can deliver a loyal Syria. Which he'd struggle to do from Barvikha or wherever

[Zacs-Master]

Sandy, your OP demonstrates that you have no idea how such people as Assad's minds work. They're not the type to retire to the seaside. It's power or nothing.

[ichkeria]

I've no doubt personally that Assad would up and leave with his immediate family tomorrow if he could.
And he will, eventually, when he has no choice.
In a fair world he'd stand trial for war crimes, but I daresay that will never happen

[Svejk]

A little video for Sandy and Ichi to peruse. What should have been a major news story but strangely wasn't.
It depicts the murderous tyrant Assad's forces subjugating the people of Homs after they had enjoyed freedom under the benevolent rule of your 'friendly rebels'.

[Khandro]

Well, he is a highly qualified London-trained eye-surgeon, so I guess he and his lovely Acton-raised wife could manage to eek out an existence somewhere in the world.

[ichkeria]

I wonder if the reason some people are in denial about Mr Assad is the fact that he speaks English and looks more like a council health inspector :-)
Certainly doesn't have Saddam's comedy moustache for example ...

[Zacs-Master]

Yeah, he's kinda cuddly for a megalomaniac, genocidal dictator.

[Svejk]

The people of Syria seem to like him well enough. The non-Islamist people, that is.

[ichkeria]

"A little video for Sandy and Ichi to peruse. What should have been a major news story but strangely wasn't.
It depicts the murderous tyrant Assad's forces subjugating the people of Homs after they had enjoyed freedom under the benevolent rule of your 'friendly rebels'. "

And that isn't the Syrian state news agency by any chance :-)
Mind you I am sure they are glad if it means they aren't going to be barrel bombed any more. And they can be sure there'll be no revenge massacring, kidnappings, that sort of thing...
As I said in the other thread, the ordinary people are desperate for an end to fighting.

[sandyRoe]

Didn't the French offer Baby Doc Duvalier sanctuary and the Americans give Marcos a home? And the Saudis helped Ide Amin.
Not all dictators cry, 'Give me power or give me death!'.

[ichkeria]

"The people of Syria seem to like him well enough. The non-Islamist people, that is. "

With respect svejk, I suggest you read up on the Syrian conflict. The problem in Syria is essentially Shia/Alawite v Sunni, not Council Health Inspector v Mad Abdul :-)

[Svejk]

They're desperate to see the back of your, Saudi Arabia and Turkey's friends.

[Svejk]

know a bit mI ore about it than you, ichi.