Who Will Be The Conservatives' Leader/prime Minister In 3 Months Time?

[Gromit]

1. David Cameron
2. Boris Johnson
3. Theresa May
4. George Osborne
5. Michael Gove

[naomi24]

Who can say? Who do you think will be Conservative Leader/Prime Minister in three months time?

[ToraToraTora]

Cameron, he'll go at the end of 2017 to give the new man a run up. Not that it'll matter much there's no real opposition.

[jourdain2]

David is a no-no, as is George. Theresa does not come over as another Margaret - rather more as a dislikeable harridan. This leaves Boris or Michael. Michael Gove does not seek power - but I think it may be forced upon him. Obvious answer is Boris, of course-- but I'm really not sure that that will happen. It may not be 3 months, but 'faut de mieux', I would go for a reluctant Gove, unless any other candidate offers.

My nightmare is a coalition of Green, Conservatives,Labour, Ukip and Uncle Tom Cobbleigh and all....

[naomi24]

Jourdain, //My nightmare is a coalition of Green, Conservatives,Labour, Ukip and Uncle Tom Cobbleigh and all.... //

That would take a General Election - and that isn't going to happen for a few years.

[Gromit]

TTT,
Cameron has stated he will not seek a second term in 2020. 3 years seems an awfully long lead in for the next man or woman.
Farage said he would stand down as leader if UKIP were unsuccessful in the General Election. They halved their number of MOs, but he renaged, so Cameron could also stay on.

[Gromit]

MPs

[ToraToraTora]

Bit of strange question gromit, what is the significance of 3 months? Dave has said he'll not fight another GE, the referendum vote will have no effect on the leadership. Dave will go in time to give, probably Boris, a decent run up at giving Labour a kicking.

[ToraToraTora]

yes perhaps 2017 is a bit early maybe May 2018.

[Hopkirk]

Maybe we will get a Jim Hacker pushed into the top position (for those of you old enough to remember 'Yes Minister')

- perhaps Philip Hammond.

[Hopkirk]

TTT, if Dave loses the referendum he will resign that day, surely?

[Jackdaw33]

// The referendum vote will have no effect on the leadership.\\

Really? Wouldn't be surprised if Boris were PM in three weeks' time, let alone three months'.

[naomi24]

Gromit, Farage didn't renege. He resigned and his resignation was rejected.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32696505

[ToraToraTora]

he won't resign if he loses the referendum, he might if it was Tory party policy to remain but it's a free vote. The party will allow him to stay until he decides to go.

[Hopkirk]

Actually there is a substantial group of Tory MPs want him to go even if he wins.

I predict his resignation within minutes of the 'Out' win announcement.

[Jackdaw33]

Win or lose, the knives are out, and with good reason. We are talking weeks here, not months.

[naomi24]

Jackdaw/Hopkirk, be careful what you wish for. Just saying....

[Jackdaw33]

I am careful. Goodbye, Dave, hello Boris!

[naomi24]

If the vote goes his way, probably.

[Khandro]

Hopkirk; Jim Hacker was completely controlled by the mandarins, who are always there whoever comes and goes.

[Gromit]

// what is the significance of 3 months? //

Win or lose the referendum, Cameron is in trouble. The time to replace/vote no confidence in their leader is the Party Conference in 3 months time. A stalking horse candidate, or Boris going for it, either could result in a leadership change sooner, rather than later.

Cameron is not much liked by the parliamentary party, members or voters. The Tories can be lethal when they know they have a toxic leader.