The Big Eu Reality Check.....on Tv Last Night....

[ToraToraTora]

Nick Robinson, started by telling us that no politicians were on the show and it would indeed be a reality check, impartial in every way. He then unloaded half and hour of pro EU propaganda! PMSL!

[Bertrum]

Its a reoccurring problem like these threads

[naomi24]

grasscarp, haha! A side effect of a surfeit of politics perhaps?

[jim360]

It does make a difference to the question about how representative of the UK as a whole AB is, no? If you say "at the last General Election [AB] was representative of the nation's feelings," then that *has* to include margins, because a slight Tory win (actual) and a massive Tory win (AB predicted) are very different feelings. The numbers matter.

[Ellipsis]

Fill in the gap:

General Election: AB predicts big Tory win, actual result small Tory win
EU Referendum: AB predicts big Brexit win, actual result ???

I think that's the point that's trying to be made ... but a bit of a non-sequitur if you ask me.

It will soon be all over! Not. I can't imagine an outcome that we'll never hear the end of.

[naomi24]

Ellipsis, for what it's worth I think the ABers have got this one wrong.

[jim360]

I'm only trying to make the point that AB exaggerates the representation of the right, and also exaggerates the level of support for Brexit. In both cases the numerical evidence for this is pretty substantial.

In the long run it may not make much difference to what follows if Leave wins by one vote or one million. Either outcome should see us leave the EU.

[Zacs-Master]

ooooh you scientists.....always got some technical detail on which to wriggle out of being wrong aintcha?

[jim360]

Eh? Not really... I can't see a point I've been wrong in this thread. The claim I've been trying to refute is that AB represents the UK because it predicted a Tory Majority... as far as I can see I've succeeded, or at least the evidence I've provided to refute it ought to be successful.

[naomi24]

Jim, // I've been trying to refute is that AB represents the UK because it predicted a Tory Majority...//

The suggestion isn’t that AB is representative of the UK – simply that on the occasion of the last General Election it was in that they correctly predicted the winner. I don't think their prediction will be correct this time.