Can Labour Keep These Seats?

[ToraToraTora]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38689401
Stoke should be an easy one but nothing is certain.

[mikey4444]

TTT...we won't have long to wait...23rd Feb.

[ichkeria]

Stoke probably, Copeland could be very interesting.

Put it this way, if Stoke goes belly-up Corbyn would have to go, so I guess I should be hoping they lose :-)

[Gromit]

I fancy a UKIP in in Stoke. But they never do.

[Orderlimit]

Labour will pay hard for their huge failures. They are out. What happened in Scotland is happening now in England. Good riddance (Useless)

[Gromit]

Orderlimit,

Scottish voters replaced one social democratic party (Labour) with another social democratic party (SNP). It was a very easy and natural change for the voters.
In England there is no natural replacement. Labour voters will be centre left, so far right UKIP are an unlikely change.

[Orderlimit]

Lets see gromit

[mikey4444]

orderlimit....what happened in Scotland was that the SNP swept all before it, Labour, Tory and LibDem. Not just Labour.

Are you suggesting that the SNP will win both of these by-Elections ?

[Orderlimit]

No, i'm suggesting Labour have failed and will pay the price for that failure. Let us see what happens

[mikey4444]

Yes, let us see what happens next month.

It might be useful at this stage, to give the scores on the doors, as they stand at present :::

Stoke :::

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stoke-on-Trent_Central_by-election,_2017#2015_result

Copeland :::

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copeland_by-election,_2017#2015_result

[Jackdaw33]

Well I for one would be uneasy as a Labour candidate in either seat with the Tories riding so high in the polls.

[Orderlimit]

We now have a real class PM, which we haven't had for at least 20 years ^

[Gromit]

// We now have a real class PM //

The jury is still out on May. Far too early to crown her a success.

[mushroom25]

said Mr Reed in his resignation letter:-
"This by-election is about the Tory government's dangerous proposals for the NHS,"

errrrr.... excuse me mr reed but no it isn't. it's about about having to consult the electorate, because you chose to desert your sinking ship of a party to take an allegedly better job at sellafield.

[jourdain2]

I agree with gromit that the jury is still out on May. Bit by bit, however, she is winning me over. I think that Labour should be very worried about Stoke. If the Tories could bring themselves to speak to UKIP and give them a clear run in Stoke in return for a clear run in Copeland, then Mrs. May would be assured of 2 more votes to support activating Article 50. Makes sense, see if they do it.

[Gromit]

The previous Tory leader and Prime Minister was terrible, so May is always going to be better. Whether better is much of an improvement remains to be seen.

Labour are vunerable in both these by-elections.

I cannot see the Tories ever forming any kind of pact woth UKIP with regard not fielding candidates. The Tory leadership has always been scared of UKIP because they are a nearer alternative for voters than Labour. They would never stand down a candidate to help UKIP win a seat.

[ABerrant]

"what happened in Scotland was that the SNP swept all before it, Labour, Tory and LibDem. Not just Labour."

The Tories were unaffected - they retained their single seat.

It took two generations (from 1955 to 1997) for Scottish Conservatives to be 'swept' away from a majority of seats to token (or nil) representation.

It took nine months (from before the Scottish Independence Referendum to the 2015 General Election) for Scottish Labour to suffer the same.

[mikey4444]

Now that Farage has got a job with Fox News, I suppose he won't be standing in either by-Election. After so many attempts ( 7/8 I reckon) he has given up. His replacement as UKIP Leader, Paul Nuttall, is rumoured to be considering standing in Stoke, although there is some confusion over this.

Imagine.....confusion and UKIP used in the same sentence !

[naomi24]

Mikey, //Paul Nuttall, is rumoured to be considering standing in Stoke, although there is some confusion over this. //

I think you're confused. Your own link posted at 18:26 Fri confirms that Paul Nuttall is standing.

[Gromit]

I reckon if Farage had been the UKIP candidate in Stoke, it would have been a foregone conclusion win for them.
Sometimes it is a matter of timing, and unluckily for Farage, this highly promising seat has come too late for him.

[THECORBYLOON]

The UKIP candidate is yet to be confirmed by UKIP.