If the election was tomorrow, how would you vote?

[AB Editor]

 

This poll is closed.

If you were voting tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

• Conservative Party - 190 votes
• 64%
• Labour Party - 28 votes
• 9%
• UK Independence Party - 28 votes
• 9%
• Liberal Democrats - 23 votes
• 8%
• Scottish National Party - 15 votes
• 5%
• Green Party - 7 votes
• 2%
• Plaid Cymru - 5 votes
• 2%
• Ulster Unionist Party - 1 vote
• 0%
• Social Democratic & Labour Party - 1 vote
• 0%
• Sinn Féin - 0 vote
• 0%
• Democratic Unionist Party - 0 vote
• 0%

See final stats

Stats until: 18:12 Sat 21st Dec 2024 (Refreshed every 5 minutes)

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[Togo]

I wouldn't think many at all Garaman, based on previous AB polls. Incidentally, the AB polls have been a whole lot closer to the outcomes lately, than any of the "official" or recognised pollsters. Perhaps Ed is going to flog our prescience to the spin doctors and stock market wonks for a small fortune. :))

[ichkeria]

I didn't realise Natalie McGarry and Michelle Thomson were Independents! I can see why they might not want an election ...

[Jackdaw33]

They were elected as members of the SNP but both resigned the whip after investigations into irregularities. They are unlikely to be returned at this election.

[Togo]

If the AB poll turns out to be at all accurate it may be worth a punt on a Conservative majority of 150. :))

[Jackdaw33]

Certainly worth a punt on 100+.

[naomi24]

Conservative.

[Jackdaw33]

If the figures in this poll were faithfully replicated it would result in a notional Tory majority of 146. The working majority would be higher, bearing in mind that Sinn Féin do not take their seats and the Speaker and his two deputies do not vote. Also, on many issues the Tories could rely on the support of the DUP.

[jim360]

AB polling often overestimates the performance of the Tories and underestimates Labour... still, if it's consistent across the years then AB's own polling prediction for the coming election is a whopping 570+ seats on the figures above with, get this, three each for Labour and the Lib Dems (still none for UKIP though).

On the other hand, correcting by typical factors based on last polls v. national averages, I'm calling the 2017 results as follows (with thanks to Electoral Calculus):

Con: 460
Lab: 100
LibDem: 12
SNP: 56
UKIP: 0

Highly unscientific, of course, but it's looking grim for Labour if AB is anything to go by...

[ichkeria]

The latest Yougov poll has UKIP crashing to a paltry 7% . I reckon all ukippers must also be answerbankers :-)

[Jackdaw33]

I would love to think you were right, Jim, but even in my wildest dreams I cannot see the Tories getting 460 seats. I also doubt that the SNP can hold on to all their 56 seats. I would expect a small Labour revival north of the border and perhaps the Tories picking up the odd seat there.

[Berniecuddles2]

My option is not on there "wouldn't vote"

[jim360]

I'd love to think I was wrong, JD -- and I probably am. It's based on the idea that AB tends to overestimate right-wing support in the country by about 20-25% (ie final result = AB prediction/1.25 or thereabouts), which would then swing (mostly) back to Labour.

In fact even this correction factor appears wildly optimistic, and is based on the EU referendum. In previous elections the AB predictions are usually within 3 points or so of the final outcome (at least for the Tories; UKIP support on AB is wildly out from national levels). So on that basis, if this is a continuation of the same pattern then AB has got Tory support too high (surely!), but still might indicate that the party can pick up not that far from 50% of the national vote, and mostly at the expense of Labour.

It's wildly unscientific to be sure, because I can't say I've bothered to correct for, for example, the number of people who voted in each AB poll -- and maybe some left-wing AB members haven't been as active lately, skewing the numbers a bit. But I'm putting this out there, for what it's worth: AB predicts a Tory landslide that puts the results of 1997 to shame, even if you attempt to correct for the right-wing bias of most AB polls.

[jourdain2]

I hope you are wrong about the landslide, jim. I want the Tories to win a healthy majority because I want a strong face turning to face the EU negotiators, not one that is constantly glancing behind it's back. Too huge a majority is not, however, I.M.O. a good thing - leading to extremist attitudes creeping in at the edges. Totally unscientifically, I'm thinking about an overall majority of c.50. Safely workable - but capable of being overturned if anything went far too far in the future and some Tories rebelled. Probably wishful thinking. :)

[Jackdaw33]

I remember Thatcher's Foreign Secretary, Francis Pym, pontificating in 1983 that too big a majority was not a good thing. It wasn't for him; she sacked him the day after winning a 144 seat majority.

[jim360]

Six weeks is still a reasonable amount of time for things to change. Labour may yet mount a partial recovery, or the Lib Dems might just start to move towards doubling their vote share or some such.

At any rate, making predictions based on polling, especially an unscientific AB poll analysed unscientifically, is hardly something to take seriously. I suppose if you think the risk of a Tory supermajority of, say, 150+, is too high, you might want to consider voting for a different party/MP... (this is not a clever ruse to see Labour get elected after all -- honest!)

I'll be interested after the fact to see how AB's poll(s) compares to the result proper. In previous elections it's actually not been too bad, as long as you subtract three points from the Tories and (roughly) halve the UKIP vote share. Well within an acceptable margin of error for polls once you correct back for these systematic biases.

[cassa333]

I wonder why some people think AB isn't representative of the voting public because it appears there are more right wings here?

Do the left not come onto AB? Are they frightened in case they get a dose of reality or something?

Perhaps there is another AB type of site where it is mostly left wingers posting!!