Has May Made A Grave Mis Calculation?

[youngmafbog]

And could JC's giveaways backfire on him if he is called on by the people to deliver?

May has taken the electorate for fools, in her pursuit of labour stronghold seats she has forsaken the fringe Tories who count in a GE. Not only the 'rob the pensioners and savers to pay the feckless, workshy and foreigners and all the trouble some bring', but she has now seen to be very wanting in her post of Home Secretary.

When I pointed out a few days back JC was in with a chance, I was howled down. I hope I am not correct but seems I may well be.

Will the last person out the country please turn out the light - if there are any left.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4543492/Corbyn-closes-just-two-weeks-go.html

[Old_Geezer]

To whom are the fringe Tories going to move their votes ?
These things are always a gamble. Win some, lose some.
That said she does seem to have drop the odd bombshell of late, but I still see her party picking up a few more seats than she had.

[Kromovaracun]

I would dearly love to be a fly on the wall in Tory HQ wondering where their 20-point lead went...

Much as I'd prefer Labour to win the election, I don't think you have anything to worry about ymb. Even if Labour were to suddenly overtake the Tories in the polls, vote % does not translate directly to control of parliament and polling is more or less irrelevant outside of swing seats anyway.

[Kromovaracun]

"To whom are the fringe Tories going to move their votes ? "

There is a chance they could go back to UKIP. UKIP mainly took votes from Labour at the last election, but their support mainly seems to have migrated to the Tories.

Perhaps a UKIP revival could be the best thing for Labour at the moment....

[mikey4444]

ymb....even I don't think that Labour is in with a chance of winning the GE.

Yes, Labour is catching up although its too little and too late.

But May has stumbled rater badly, with her attack on Pensioners, which resulted in a very swift U-Turn. This is the second U-Turn this year.

[ichkeria]

Labour are not going to win but the recent polls have been most intetesting. Generally electorates don't like opportunistic election calls and while May will come through I sincerely hope it is not the earlier predicted landslide. Her cynical attempt to hoover up both left and right deserves to fail

[-Talbot-]

May has been stupid with her manifesto ... she should have taken a leaf from the Labour manifesto and promised everyone a magical unicorn.

[youngmafbog]

It might surprise you but I hope she does not get a massive landslide victory.

I have send since she came to the fore, for me the jury is out on May. Verdict is not looking good at the moment.

[youngmafbog]

I disagree Talbot, all she needed to do was say she would review the care system, review overseas aid and fund the NHS. i.e. keep the status quo.

But she couldn't resist meddling.

[Kromovaracun]

Wouldn't it be hilarious if the conservative majority was effectively unchanged after the election?

God that would be delicious. How humiliating.

[youngmafbog]

Even as a staunch Tory I think I would smile at that!

[-Talbot-]

Not really if you are a Labour supporter, Krom.

They would probably be stuck with Jeremy for many more years

[youngmafbog]

I hadn't thought of that, so Labour not being annihilated means they will consign themselves to the wilderness for many years. Perhaps that is not so good either.

Can't win on this election!

[Kromovaracun]

To be honest even if Corbyn managed by some fluke to win this election I would still not be surprised if his party tried to launch another coup against him.

[jim360]

I think most people have this tendency to apply something like a 5-point correction factor in the Tories' favour when it comes to polling. So a 5-point lead is really a 10-point lead. I guess that's what I've been thinking anyway.

Still, it's been a remarkable change in fortunes for Labour, and if momentum (small m, not that stupid fringe movement) is a real thing then with another two weeks to go, who knows?

"It might surprise you but I hope she does not get a massive landslide victory."

Doesn't surprise me at all. You've been very vocal in the past about how much you value a strong opposition. Something I've always liked seeing, as opposed to those clamouring for effective one-party rule for the foreseeable future.

[agchristie]

Labour may well close the gap in terms of electoral seats but that doesn't necessarily translate into a strong and effective opposition.

Recent events perhaps have not put May and the Tories in the best light but it could signal a wake up call that the public will not settle for complacency.

The reality is that deep down Labour are still in turmoil.

[jim360]

Yes, granted -- still, a Labour party that actually is in the position to win elections, even if divided, is still stronger than a party that's united but with only 150 seats. So you could go either way on what's better.

The other thing to bear in mind is that Labour are severely hampered by being well behind in Scotland. It will depend on how things align but, roughly speaking, Labour needs more than a five-point lead nationally in order to be the largest party if the SNP hold on to (most of) their seats, and maybe a six or seven-point lead to hold a majority.

I'm not going to bother being any more precise than that because anyway there are still two weeks to go and a lot can happen, but I suppose the point is that Labour are still a long distance from victory, and still only in "damage limitation" at the moment.

[jno]

I don't see Labour winning, but May has only herself to blame for all this. Her platform is anything but strong and stable: say you don't like one of its legs and she'll panic and saw it off.

She is I think an opportunist - that's why she called the election in the first place, having promised not to, another U turn - and she makes up policy on the hoof. That's bad practice in campaigning for an election, but it's also bad practice in running the country. Brexiteers will have to hope she grows a spine.

[agchristie]

Another key area Jim is where I am in the north-east where the Tories are looking to make gains which were until recently unthinkable.

In my ward there is a feeling that the Lab MP may well be sent packing.

[Apariah]

It's fascinating, after a trinity of recent results all going against the polls that many still seem to take notice of a percentage system, when a) they have been wrong and b) We do not have a percentage based system.

[youngmafbog]

A percentage system is all we have as an indicator though AP. Polls are not done at 'seat' level, this is of course why they can so often be wrong.

What is does show is May needs to pull her finger out, show us she is a true Brexiteer and a true Tory. I dont want to be voting in a Bremoaning Liberal.