Yougov Now Says Hung Parliament

[scooping]

Blimey

[naomi24]

^ :o)

[Togo]

http://home.bt.com/news/uk-news/in-graphic-poll-of-polls-with-seven-days-to-go-11364184479593

Haha Answer removed? Missed that. Bit early.

[jim360]

It wasn't anything exciting, just someone posting in the wrong thread.

Thanks for the link. Annoyingly it doesn't disclose its specific polling sources and methods, which is a pity, because I bet it includes that poll from YouGov that predicted a Hung Parliament, and that you dismissed as a "farce" earlier. As I've explained that YouGov poll was still an outlier, so not conclusive in itself, but it wasn't a farce; any more than this one is.

As Mikey points out, another polling averages tracker gives the Tories a larger majority still -- although that majority has been in virtual freefall for the last week or so.

Polls can't be ignored or embraced just because they say what you want to hear. They're all as important as each other.

[Togo]

Twas Poll of polls.

[Old_Geezer]

Gut feeling is that the hung prediction will prove incorrect. I've no reason to doubt the stats process and their black arts, but it still disagreed with other predictions and no prediction method's perfect.

Some newspapers are suggesting a Labour SNP alliance. That should sway a lot of Labour voters to rethink. The United Kingdom has already split up far too​ much over recent decades without some major party planning to make it worse by granting/promising further concessions in order to grab power for one term. Especially one where they imply they'll grant the EU whatever it takes in order to get zero tariffs, effectively wanting a one way deal and an "exit" on paper only.

[mikey4444]

OG....I can't help feeling that Labour may be making a mistake, if they reject an alliance with the SNP.

Whatever happens south of the Border, the SNP is still likely to be in the ascendant on June 9th. I suspect that whatever Labour says in private, the grass roots are already planning some kind on pact, if the opportunity arises.

[EDDIE51]

mikey, both Labour and the SNP now say they will consider a coalition to keep out the Tories
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/02/nicola-sturgeon-suggests-snp-would-prop-labour-minority-government/
Add that to the reports that May's popularity has 'plummeted ' in the last 24 hours
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-poll-latest-theresa-may-approval-ratings-2017-drop-majority-leadership-survey-a7769361.html
and it is looking worse by the hour for the Tories!

[Jackdaw33]

I cannot imagine a hung parliament. Apart from the NW, NE and London the map of England is swathed in blue, with the odd splash of red. Any gains Labour may make are likely to be at the expense of the SNP, which will not affect the outcome.

[jim360]

Turns out that this was the best prediction of all in the end. Who'd'a thunk it?

The final analysis correctly predicted 632/650 seats (with most of the wrong ones being in Scotland, where YouGov overestimated the performance of the SNP), and even called Canterbury correctly.

Turns out that if you have enough data then you can make pretty accurate predictions after all...