Are Remainers Reconsidering?

[Khandro]

So it would seem according to the latest, rather large, survey. Perhaps seeing the shenanigans by the EU side of the negotiations, the realization is dawning of what the 'Community' really is; a far-reaching piece of self-serving institutional folly.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/08/11/remain-voters-now-back-taking-control-borders-leaving-ecj-paying/

[Zacs-Master]

Not me sunshine.

[jim360]

3,000 people (answering six questions each) not 20,000 -- to be fair to the Telegraph, they were quoting Buzzfeed on that who also got it wrong.

[dannyk13]

According to the Mail 3,293 people were polled of whom 53% preferred a hard Brexit.

[Old_Geezer]

Remainers who believe in democracy, and so accept the vote to leave, may well feel that if we are leaving then the border control should be returned to us, jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice ended and we should pay little or nothing to leave a club.

[Old_Geezer]

That's encouraging danny. So the public realises that if we leave for specific reasons it's important that we don't concede those same reasons and get out on paper only ?

[jim360]

Like all statistics, the devil's in the interpretation. A great deal of the data points seem to indicate that the average Remain and Leave voter is only really separated by one issue: whether or not EU citizens must all leave or can all stay. And even on that, there's a surprisingly high number of Remain voters who wouldn't be totally opposed to kicking all EU citizens out.

No, I think this shows a far more worrying picture: total indifference.

[gulliver1]

No! I think those that voted leave are reconsidering, we need a second referendum right now! Why are the dedicated leavers worried about a second Ref?.

[mikey4444]

I see no evidence that those that voted to Remain are in anyway likely to change their minds....if anything, its the Leavers that are more likely to be having second thoughts.

[donny48]

I voted to remain but it was quite clear that the result would be acted on.
If we had another referendum and it still said leave must we then say " best of five", it was a democratic decision, I don't agree with it but will always defend the right to have an opinion different to mine.

[dannyk13]

Mikey, it was Remainers that were interviewed not Brexiteers.

[jim360]

There's another question I have -- that I don't know the answer to -- about the survey. Was there ever a "No Brexit please" option offered? If not, then the Remainers in the survey may be just choosing between two things they don't like. If so, why hasn't it been reported?

In practice the "No Brexit please" option probably isn't an option, but still, if you want to understand Remainers' views it could play a part. I do suspect that a large part of the Remain vote has adopted a "sigh... let's just get on with it" attitude, but I'm not sure I'd interpret that as support for Leaving as opposed to grudging acceptance.

[Khandro]

HaHa, as expected, there's something wrong with the poll

[jim360]

That is not what I said. I did say that there's something wrong with the Telegraph's reporting of it -- because there is, they got the sample size wrong -- and I did want to see more details of the poll itself.

[Togo]

//Like all statistics, the devil's in the interpretation.//

Worth keeping that as a reminder Jim. Plenty of opportunity for re-use methinks. (&_*)

[Togo]

Does the EU have all it's "eggs" in one basket case??

[jim360]

I suppose I can also add to that that I think there's something wrong with your interpretation of it. A good deal of the data points are not all that far removed from 50% support for various positions, plus or minus 5 percentage points -- but without the full details, to be published later this year, I can't say I understand the meaning of this relative flatlining. IN particular on the future trade deal, then it seems that "no-one has a clue what they want" is as good an interpretation as any. OPtions as diametrically opposed as "few barriers and no tariffs" and "all the barriers and tariffs you can get" have essentially the same support level (among leave voters it's 52% and 47%-ish respectively).

https://www.buzzfeed.com/jamesball/remain-and-leave-voters-are-surprisingly-united-on-backing?utm_term=.foL6VO7Mb#.ibK6RwKQO

[jim360]

"Worth keeping that as a reminder Jim. Plenty of opportunity for re-use methinks."

Oh, absolutely. I do my best to interpret them as cleanly and honestly as I can but I'm aware that I'll fail sometimes. Quote me on this whenever you think I'm getting it wrong in future and I'll happily reconsider.

[ichkeria]

Nope

[Garaman]

No, I don't think there is anything in that survey to say they are reconsidering. Unless I have missed it, they don't appear to have been asked if they would still rather remain. They were asked what they think leaving should mean, which is quite different.

[Khandro]

They corrected themselves and the Telegraph is not to blame;

'CORRECTION
August 11, 2017, at 6:17 p.m.

The researchers collected six data points each from 3,293 people, resulting in a dataset of 19,758 choices. An earlier version of this story misstated that the researchers surveyed 20,000 people.'

Still 20,000 choices on a wide range of issues isn't to be sniffed at, wouldn't you say?