Corbyn V Jrm?

[Kromovaracun]

According to Conservative Home, Jacob Rees Mogg has emerged as the favourite among Tory grassroots as the next leader.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/05/jacob-rees-mogg-emerges-favourite-succeed-theresa-may/

Obviously, grassroots support is not as important in the Conservative party as it is in Labour. But does this make him a serious contender or do you still consider him a joke?

In the un/likely event of a Rees Mogg leadership entering a face off with Corbyn, who do you think would win?

[ladybirder]

For Krom

[jno]

we don't do Corbyn v JRM contests in Britain, only party v party; it's the parties who elect the leaders. A pedantic point, I suppose, but I don't think the clash of ideologies you suggest can ever take the personal form you suggest.

[Kromovaracun]

The last election was heavily personalised though. So was the one before it.

[ToraToraTora]

kromo, no one on either side gives a rats plaster about civil partnerships and all that old pony. Fear not they won't waste any time on it.

[Kromovaracun]

Great so if someone did try to remove them, nobody would care either way.

I can't say I find that reassuring.

[jim360]

I think TTT's nailed the description of the 2017 election. One other thing that marked it is how the meteoric rise of Labour wasn't really associated with a corresponding fall in Tory support, which stayed more or less the same, in the low 40s, right through the polls and into the election. It wasn't really a Tory collapse, but a failure to win former UKIP voters (and the younger voters) that cost Theresa May her majority. Still a stupid election to call and a disastrous campaign, but I don't think it would have taken many swing votes for it to have instead been the biggest Tory win since 1983, so... fine margins!

I don't know what this means for the next election, though. Labour have an opportunity now to actually unite around a clearly successful and electable leader, whereas in the run-up to 2017 they were a party in disarray, while the coming years will see the fallout from Brexit. If May does a good job, she wins (by a landslide). If she doesn't, then Corbyn will almost certainly beat whatever the Tories have to offer, because General Elections offer the only realistic opportunity to hold the incumbent government to account.

[Quizmonster]

Tory grassroots, eh? Weren't they the very people whom Lord Feldman - largely supported by his pal, David Cameron - described as (quote) "swivel-eyed loons" a few years ago? If their current wishes came true, it truly would be a case of the inmates taking over the asylum!

[New Judge]

“In my own not-too-limited experience, grassroots members of the Conservative party tend to be far worse people than the average person on the street,…”

What do you mean by “worse”, Kromo (which by itself implies they are all bad)? Do you mean that they express more strongly their views, which happen not to accord with yours? Furthermore, what on earth makes you even consider that your civil partnership would not be recognised, whoever (of those likely to do so) was the Prime Minister? When was the last time that you can recall (in peacetime) when fundamental rights (especially on an issue that few people care particular about, one way or another) were taken away from individuals on the say so of a Prime Minister of the UK? And reading your post at 10:52 (which I won’t repeat because it’s rather lengthy) I think you need to take some anti-paranoia pills :-)

“TTT....I think you grossly underestimate how successful Labour was in June. They came close to winning...”

Mikey, Mikey, Mikey:

Labour: 262 seats
Conservatives: 317 seats

Or to put it another way:

Labour: 262 seats
The Rest: 388 seats

Just how close to winning is that?

[ichkeria]

Tory party members are just as out of step with ordinary people as are Labour party members.
It's impossible to say who will win the next election at the moment, but it's a fair bet that Labour would, partly because the party got a huge shot in the arm from the last election and there are a lot of younger people now on the register. And also because we'll have had, effectively, 3 Tory govts in a row (4 if you count the May era as separate from the Cameron one, which I think you can) and generally speaking the electorate tend to want to chuck out the ruling party after that long. We don't know how much blood there will be on the carpet in the two main parties by the next election either over Brexit. Having Rees Mogg or David Davis at the helm would not I think cause labour too many sleepless night.

[ichkeria]

I forgot to add, that come 2022 it is also not imposssible that there will be a fair amount of Brexit fallout (which is one reason why it is hard to see Davis at the helm) and guess which party is likely to get the blame for that.
The last election also saw the public start the process of punishing the tories for austerity, something hich even most tories predicted would happen back in 2010, but which somehow seemed to get forgotten about, as allegedly we were all keen to see our living standards and services nosedive in the interests of sound housekeeping.

[Kromovaracun]

It's not to do with views. I don't mind disagreement. When I say "worse", I'm talking about people who are rude, boorish, entitled, manipulative, and deliberately aggressive - e.g. calling people "f@ggots" or "p00fs" or "w0gs" to their faces for some contrived "I'm using my free speech" effect. I've had a lot of contact with CP members (albeit mostly of my own age, I'll admit, so maybe those people grow up to fine upstanding moral citizens), and that kind of thing is overwhelmingly what I've encountered.

Also I used "tend to" for a reason, because obviously not every single last member of the Conservative party is a terrible person. But it's a relatively small party in terms of membership and at the grassroots it seems to be flypaper for nasties.

[Kromovaracun]

Not "grow up to become", "go on to become".

I'm making lots of typos today. Maybe it's my cold :/

[Old_Geezer]

I don't know enough about JRM to be able to judge how good a PM he might prove to be, but when I hear him speak I'm tending to nod agreement so he can't be too bad for a Tory. I see no reason to replace May at present, even knowing the bad judgement she's made on some issues. But if the party did make a change they could probably do a lot worse.

As for a face off against Corbyn, I'm unsure that's relevant. As long as Labour insists on trying to derail Brexit they aren't fit for government. (That said I'm still unconvinced thst they've dropped the idea that each citizen must carry papers to prove themselves legitimate, so until they prove they understand the concept of a free society once again, they have issues appearing electable anyway.)

[ToraToraTora]

jim: "I think TTT's nailed the description of the 2017 election" - thank you, mikey seems unimpressed!

[Kromovaracun]

Re: the suggestions I'm being 'paranoid'... well, I'll accept it only insofar as the likelihood of JRM becoming leader of the Conservative party seem to be very slim. I'm not sure my fears would be irrational if that actually happened.

I know the analogy isn't perfect, but bear with me. Imagine if an up-and-comer in the governing party went around saying that they were fundamentally opposed to the concept of heterosexual marriage to the extent of not agreeing it should be legal. Would you feel reassured by people on the internet telling you, "it's alright, most people don't care about it one way or another"?

I'd suggest you might not - because (if true) it would mean that if we did get a leader who tried to enact that conviction, most people would be indifferent.

[mikey4444]

NJ..........close enough to make sure that Mrs May had to brown nose the bowler-hatted bigots, aka the DUP....with public funds.

[ichkeria]

"As long as Labour insists on trying to derail Brexit they aren't fit for government."

That is your opinion as a supporter of Brexit, OG.
As I said before, not everyone is as obsessed with Brexit as we are.
It is a shame tho that people cannot see that there is more than one way to skin the Brexit cat. There is such a thing as not wanting to "derail Brexit" but also not agreeing with the government's approach to it

[New Judge]

"...because obviously not every single last member of the Conservative party is a terrible person."

That's refreshing to learn.

[Togo]

So what you are saying Kromo, is that if Jezza "bell" were to be elected with a majority, he could hunt down the non labour support with his Pavlovian pack and hound them, using the dangerous dogs act, with impunity?

[Togo]

//Also I used "tend to" for a reason,//

You have already told us.