ChatterBank2 mins ago
Two Hurricanes In Rapid Succession.
First Houston bore the brunt, now islands in the Caribbean are being battered by the elements.
Could these storms be a consequence of global warming or are two in close proximity not really as unusual as they might first seem?
Could these storms be a consequence of global warming or are two in close proximity not really as unusual as they might first seem?
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//there are people on here who thinks that's a myth . //
No they dont, that is a myth peddled by people like you.
Now if you had put global warming caused by mankind then you may be nearer the mark.
Has this got something to do with the ever changing Earth? Yes, more than likely although it is hurricane season and records only go back 180 years.
No they dont, that is a myth peddled by people like you.
Now if you had put global warming caused by mankind then you may be nearer the mark.
Has this got something to do with the ever changing Earth? Yes, more than likely although it is hurricane season and records only go back 180 years.
'tis the hurricane season, whch officially runs from June 1 to November 30. (I was once rash enough to go out on a small boat on the Caribbean on June 1 and sure enough an almighty storm blew up and the motor broke down.)
As to having two so close together, I'm wondering if the first might unsettle the atmosphere enough, if it's a big one, to encourage a second one to form; but only a meteorogist would know the answer to that, and all we have on AB are doctors, builders and Tory supporters.
I seem to recall Haiti was hit three or four times in a year once, about 10 years ago.
As to having two so close together, I'm wondering if the first might unsettle the atmosphere enough, if it's a big one, to encourage a second one to form; but only a meteorogist would know the answer to that, and all we have on AB are doctors, builders and Tory supporters.
I seem to recall Haiti was hit three or four times in a year once, about 10 years ago.
could this be a consequence....
yes it could be - nothing wrong with that conclusion
the issue is time-series analysis and deciding what the numbers generated mean.
I think an easier problem is: you know that buses in London go round in at least pairs. What is the chance of having three come along - and what chance is it that all three have been hijacked by al qaeda? - even if someone says - 30%
you are left with the question - 30% of what ?
Listen to the silence sandy - the silence
no one discussing it at all - altho I must say I wonder
yes it could be - nothing wrong with that conclusion
the issue is time-series analysis and deciding what the numbers generated mean.
I think an easier problem is: you know that buses in London go round in at least pairs. What is the chance of having three come along - and what chance is it that all three have been hijacked by al qaeda? - even if someone says - 30%
you are left with the question - 30% of what ?
Listen to the silence sandy - the silence
no one discussing it at all - altho I must say I wonder
It's very difficult to disentangle the effects just due to random weather conditions, and the extra effects that may be expected from climate change (man-made or otherwise). I think it's suspected that the water in the Atlantic is warmer than usual, driving particularly powerful storms. Harvey led to record rainfall and Irma has record wind speeds (at least, for a Hurricane this far east), and these records may not be coincidental, but there's more than a little reason to be hesitant about blaming (man-made) climate change for that. If the records continued to tumble, or if storms of this intensity remained as frequent, then there'd be a case for it. But after one season you have to strike a note of caution, because otherwise you could be mixing up weather and climate.
ah alba how kind of you to ask
Now in London there are these big big red lorries and we call them buses. and You wait around for one and one may come.
And it you wait long enough ( like a day) one will almost certainly come along
and another time --- three buses will come along together
one two three ( buses )
and one two hurricanes.....
a clump - together and you may wonder if this clumping is common at all. That is if it happens every day - every week or every year or hardly at all.
or you may not ( as mystic meg might say)
and do you see that the chance of having one two three buses in quick succession is kinda like having one two hurricanes in quick succession ?
No you dont - that is because you think of a bus as a red lorry and a hurricane as a wild windy thing with lots of rain.....
( it is their occurrence in quick succession that I was alluding to)
Now in London there are these big big red lorries and we call them buses. and You wait around for one and one may come.
And it you wait long enough ( like a day) one will almost certainly come along
and another time --- three buses will come along together
one two three ( buses )
and one two hurricanes.....
a clump - together and you may wonder if this clumping is common at all. That is if it happens every day - every week or every year or hardly at all.
or you may not ( as mystic meg might say)
and do you see that the chance of having one two three buses in quick succession is kinda like having one two hurricanes in quick succession ?
No you dont - that is because you think of a bus as a red lorry and a hurricane as a wild windy thing with lots of rain.....
( it is their occurrence in quick succession that I was alluding to)
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