With the polls showing that UKIP is already on the rise again under the excellent interim leadership of Steve Crowther, which can only continue with Nigel at the helm, what will be the consequences of a strong third party?
Well getting a bloody nose from "just a noisy voice" is all he needs to be able to deliver isn't it!
How many times does it need to be pointed out he got (more or less) what he aimed for without the big party machines that Labour and Conservative. So he is not irrelevant. He is very current because the cause he was involved in is very much in the fore so you are attacking him BECAUSE of his relevance.
It beggars belief that people are so scared of him and what he can achieve outside of Westminster they have to belittle the influence he had and to a small but growing degree still has.
Stop panicking. He is unlikely to be PM and UKIP is unlikely to bring an opposition about for many years, if at all. All you are doing is feeding into a the fear he will again be able to trounce everyone from the 'sidelines' of being a nobody.
Cassa....I am certainly not "scared of him" He has done his job, which I and many others have admitted. But he has now gone back to being a figure of fun. Nothing wrong with that....he always made me laugh.
But if he were to make a come-back, in what function would that be ?
UKIP is dead in the water. His only chance is to beg re-admittance to the Tory Party, as I have already said.
Farage has more influence now than he's ever had. In 2010 he was the leader of a fairly obscure party which did not command much public attention. He is now a prime time radio show host, has personal connections to the president of the United States and enjoys a huge public following. Furthermore, given the government's extraordinarily weak position in parliament, his ability to cause trouble on the right of the Conservative party is considerably enhanced on what it was in 2015. He's a very intelligent strategist and opportunist and he has deftly used political chaos to increase his position. I think those of us who consider ourselves on the centre/left (myself included) have learned the hard way not to dismiss him (even if his party is effectively an irrelevant husk without him).
I would be rather surprised if he returned to UKIP because I think his decision to leave when he did was inspired and highly calculated, and has served him very well. He's obviously making those noises for a reason though, so it's probable that he will return.
The latest poll I can find is an IPSOS/Moridated 21st September. This is the result:
CON 40% (-1)
LAB 44% (+2)
LDEM 9% (nc)
UKIP 2% (-1)
Fieldwork was over the weekend and changes are from July.
-1% is not my definition of 'on the rise again'.
UKIP will never be a strong third Party. They were never even a strong 5th Party.
UKIP were never a a credible option at the polls when Farage was leader last time, so there is no reason to suppose it will be any different if he returns.
They are good to see how the main parties are going (not always accurate mind you but an indicator) and in truth the also rans (lib dem, UKIP) politically are non entities.
Look at influence instead. Farage has had more influence on this one subject than the vast majority of our elected MPs. As has been pointed out he has the ear of the president of the USA, he has media coverage and is popular (albeit not political) with the public.
Mikey you are frightened of him. You name call and belittle him at every opportunity and that is an indicator of your fright.
You know what I was having a think just now (no laughing at the back please) and agree with a commentator, who I can't remember their name, that said the Labour Party members and hierarchy have for a very long time called the Torys the nasty party. They come up with some pretty vile names for Conservative MPs that have done some great things for this country. Even when they died.
Some of these people are themselves so vile they can't even bring themselves to properly name the people they are slagging off. They come up with disgusting names that I am sure they wouldn't want their mothers, wives and daughters called but it's all right because they are making a political point.
The conservatives make the hard decisions based on the crud left behind by the Labour Party Labour and is considered the nasty party because of it.
But if we are talking Nasty I am looking Labour and any of their devotees who are so petty and devoid of conscience that they have to resort to vile and childish name calling square in the face and saying YOU are the nasty party.
You can believe that Farage is going to come over the horizon on his white charger and save us all from a fate worse than death if you like, but it isn't going to happen any time soon, or at all for that matter, as others have said, not just me.
Whoever came up with that horrendous calumny "the Nasty Party" must be a really loathsome individual. As you say, they must be "petty and devoid of conscience that they have to resort to vile and childish name calling".
You know what I am going to do. I'm going to google it, to see who first called the Conservatives 'the Nasty Party, and then I am going to name and shame the vile traitor.
I think Labour must feel particularly scared, for the simple reason that large numbers of them first went to UKIP before returning to Labour. With Nigel back and Labour farting about over Brexit they will return, and those marginal seats will take on a new complexion.
Khandro......we don't know for sure how many people changed from voting Labour, to voting UKIP, as all ballots are secret ballots, but it would be safe to presume that some did at least.
In 2015, there were 3,881,099 votes cast for UKIP.
In 2017, that dropped to 594,068.
In other words, the UKIP votes collapsed.
Just as its impossible to know exactly how many people changed from voting UKIP, back to voting Labour, its exactly the same with natural Tory voters.