Economy Not As Bad As Feared ...

[sunny-dave]

... well that's a surprise - but actually entirely predictable to many of us.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/dec/01/uk-factory-orders-hit-four-year-high

I can hear the wails of anguish as the remainers look for reasons to just call this 'a blip', instead of admitting that they have perhaps over-egged the "we're all doomed" pudding.

[ToraToraTora]

no doubt the anti British will be along soon to tell us why we are all kazi bound!

[jim360]

something something haven't left yet something something

[emmie]

just what we need some good news..

[youngmafbog]

something something it will all collapse after the referendum I believe was the first message.

Moved on now I guess has it jim?

[jim360]

My understanding was always that the economic models for Brexit were generally based on the idea that we would start the process for leaving on June 24th, ie instant triggering of Article 50. That didn't happen. The date for comparison between predictions and actuality therefore seems to me to be "Brexit Day", ie from the end of March 2019. Even then I doubt the worst predictions of Project Fear will come true, because the exit will (presumably) have been better-managed on both sides. Except possibly in the event of a "No Deal", but despite the rhetoric from May et al I'm sure they have no intention of allowing that to happen.

But it doesn't matter to me much either way. I didn't base my decision on economic factors in the short-term, and I doubt most Leave Voters did either. I didn't subscribe to the "we're all doomed" hypothesis in the first place, and I never have done.

[youngmafbog]

The problem is no one knows what else will come along that could make it good or bad. So predictions of doom are just as useless as predictions of all golden light and sunny days.

[douglas9401]

Jim, I think I might get a t-shirt printed up with that 16:10 front and back. :-D

[jim360]

Quite.

Maybe it's a personal bias but I take a fairly dim view of most economic predictions anyway. Or, at the very least, they tend to come with rather larger uncertainties than they are given credit for.

Brexit *could* have turned out awfully but I don't think it was ever really likely to.

[youngmafbog]

Things that tend to affect the economy badly are usually a perfect storm of a number of issues, not one. Also those issues tend to be not confined to one country.

[hereIam]

I never took any notice anyway, it's all just scaremongering ...

[naomi24]

Jim, // I didn't subscribe to the "we're all doomed" hypothesis in the first place, and I never have done. //

You could have fooled me! In fact you did fool me!

[jim360]

Well, it's easily done :P

In all seriousness I think you were mistaking pessimism for fatalism. I don't deny that I think Brexit is a mistake, and that we would have been better off as a whole staying in the EU. But I have never -- ever -- thought that it would lead to some sort of total collapse.

[naomi24]

Jim, //Well, it's easily done :P //

Indeed. You do have a tendency to waffle. ;o)

[jim360]

I don't understand how, in all of the many posts I have made, (and I have made several, on this site and elsewhere (not that you can be expected to have read those outside the confines of AB)) you could possibly, based on what you have read, drawn such an impression, that I certainly do not intend to have ever given in my time here, either previously or in the future.

[naomi24]

Jim, I can’t comment on what you’ve said elsewhere on the internet – I don’t use any other site – but the impression I’ve gained from what you’ve said here on the subject is one of you wandering through life with a big black rain cloud hovering permanently above your head, convinced that unspeakable doom is about to befall you. Seriously.

[jim360]

It's so sweet that you think I care what your impression of me is enough for you to think it worth sharing.

[Deskdiary]

I have no idea how many people on this site work in the City (I do work in the City - and at 8.26pm am still in the office), but guess what - there's no fear here at all. In 15 minutes or so I'm meeting friends in The Lamb in Leadenhall Market, and they will have no fear either.

What is abundantly clear is the people who were predicting financial armageddon, generally, and many on this site, either have no grasp of what is actually happening, or choose to wilfully ignore that we have an incredibly robust economy, and an economy that is predicted to continue to be robust. They can post as many Guardian links as they like, but the fact is the people that matter, i.e, the people that know what they are talking about, have no real fear for the future.

[EDDIE51]

The firm two of my sons work for is putting on extra shifts, overtime and has cancelled the Christmas shut down. Why ?
Because they export 75% of what they make to Volkswagen in Germany. They are getting as far ahead with orders as possible so as to have as much stock as possible already exported and stored Germany before we leave the EU and probably have to pay export tariffs on it.
There is a competing company in Germany who supply the same product but are slightly more expensive at present, that will reverse if we leave the EU without a deal as seems inevitable now.
You know what VW will do if buying from the UK becomes more expensive than buying from Germany. They are not going to pay more to buy from the UK when the same product is cheaper in their home company.

[New Judge]

I would suggest that the strategy followed by your sons' company is flawed, Eddie.

However many widgets they make for VW now and wherever they are stored, eventually they will run out. If your fears are realised and they no longer have a market in Germany, what then? Instead of concentrating their efforts into making excess widgets they should diversify and seek new markets outside the EU. All business will need to adapt to the post-Brexit circumstances that prevail.

[tonyav]

The company that I work for has had the best year ( turnover / profits )this year since the company was founded.