Are We Entering A Crisis?

[Kromovaracun]

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/brexit-ireland-and-uk-agree-deal-on-border-but-dup-issues-warnings-on-terms-36377250.html

May has (allegedly) come to an agreement over NI which, according to a leaked draft, sees the province "maintaining regulatory alignment" (i.e. common market) with the Republic after Brexit.

In response, Arlene Foster - whose MPs are presently propping the government up - has stated that NI must leave the EU "on the same terms as the rest of the UK", and Nicola Sturgeon has on Twitter said that "If one part of the UK can retain regulatory alignment with the EU ... there is surely no good practical reason why others can't."

Is the UK about to enter a crisis?

[ToraToraTora]

No.

[emmie]

i sincerely don't think so...

[Jackdaw33]

If the silly mare hadn't called a totally unnecessary election she wouldn't have to rely on DUP support.

[Kromovaracun]

I have a feeling this will be a sticking point for the DUP, 3T... they could collapse the government over this. And even if they don't, the precedent will then be set for Scotland.

[jim360]

Well, it would be entertaining at least.

[ToraToraTora]

kroimo: no they could not. Withdrawal of support from the DUP will make it more difficult but they alone cannot do much. Even if the government is replaced the problem still remains.

[anneasquith]

Let's sit back and see .!!

[jim360]

Without the DUP the Tories are a minority government and could therefore be defeated on just about anything. That's why there was a deal with them in the first place -- because Theresa May (rightly) saw that a minority government in the present circumstances would be unstable and bad for the country.

But making the deal as it stood, ie as a fairly loose "confidence and supply" arrangement comes with the risk that the DUP can withdraw that confidence at any time in a way that a formal coalition would not realistically allow.

This certainly *could* lead to a crisis, although I suspect it won't. But it's risky, to say the least, to pursue a deal that the DUP aren't happy with.

[bainbrig]

A lot of English (sic) people have very little understanding of the border between the Irish republic and part of Ulster (the 'six' counties).

Currently, with free traffic of people and goods both ways, the almost unpoliceable border is no problem.

Post-Brexit, it will be like having the Channel Tunnel with no customs posts at either end - unless collectively we spend billions on some sort of physical barrier (plus a permanent border-policing force).

For my part, I wouldn't mind the fact that any foreigner who fancied it could go to the Irish Republic and then just waltz across the border into the United Kingdom (for instance), but I think the White Van Man (and his pals) would be up in their tatooed arms over it...

BB

[Kromovaracun]

//kroimo: no they could not. Withdrawal of support from the DUP will make it more difficult but they alone cannot do much.//

If the government loses its majority outright, it cannot survive a vote of no confidence - something which a number of Tory MPs are already reported to be considering. I think you're over-estimating the strength of the government's position.

[Jackdaw33]

Any vote of no confidence will be about May as leader, not the government.

[mikey4444]

On a side issue, I don't remember the border between NI and Eire being discussed at all, in the run up to the Referendum. Nobody wants a hard border to be in place, post Brexit.

[Kromovaracun]

Not "any" - a vote of no confidence can be an internal tory party affair (in which case, everyone fully expects the party to erupt into civil war) or it can be a parliamentary one (less likely but not impossible) in which the government is dismissed and a new election takes place.

[mikey4444]

Jack....the very last thing the Tory Party wants, or needs, is a Leadership election !

[jim360]

What about the motion "That this house has no confidence in Her Majesty's Government."? Pretty sure that would be about the government rather than May, JD...

[Jackdaw33]

I somehow cannot see the DUP handing the keys to Downing Street to Sinn Fein-loving Jezza.

[jim360]

You say that, but the SNP handed the keys to Thatcher in 1979...

Also, Corbyn won't be able to form a government without DUP and SNP and Lib Dem and Green and PC support, so it would lead to an early Election, which Corbyn has no guarantee of winning.

[bainbrig]

I see the Trumpery of telling a lie often enough and getting it believed (or was that some other enemy of Britain?) is alive and well on this website.

Jeremy Corbyn is no more pro-Sinn Fein than any other British politician who wanted to talk to Irish Republicans about ending the Troubles in the Six Counties, despite the nonsense promulgated by the likes of Jackdaw, and the Daily Mail.

BB

[ToraToraTora]

"If the government loses its majority outright, it cannot survive a vote of no confidence -" - yes but that would require all the opposition parties to vote for it and we end up with a general election and whoever wins that will have the same problems. Jezza may well have his eye on number 10 but he wont want to risk being a minority government with the same problems.

[mikey4444]

Bainbrig....well said. As I remember, it was John Major who played a large part in the run-up to the Good Friday agreement.