Michel Barnier Doing A Really Good Job ...

[bednobs]

of convincing remainers they made the wrong decision. I didnt vote as i fundamentally disagree with referenda but if i had have voted, it would have probably been remain. However, seeing MB on the news tonight made me think why on earth would we want to stay?

[Old_Geezer]

Good to discover that he's useful for something.

[Kromovaracun]

He's proved exactly what Remainers like Heseltine have been saying for ages: Britain has no leverage, is not an equal party and is completely at the mercy of the EU side, who have an obvious incentive against letting this go well.

This was obvious from the start and for me was one of the principal reasons that Brexit is a terrible idea: it puts the UK in a politically dominated position rather than taking a realist approach and advocating for our interests properly within the existing structures of geopolitics.

So he's not convinced me of any such thing.

[cassa333]

what makes us think we should have big world big stage politics?

[ToraToraTora]

we have leverage we ain't using it, I don't know why.

[Kromovaracun]

What leverage would that be?

[jno]

his job is protecting the interests of the EU, which he does seem to be doing well. Since the British are leaving, he can hardly be expected to do a good job for them as well.

[Jackdaw33]

//...it puts the UK in a politically dominated position rather than taking a realist approach and advocating for our interests properly within the existing structures of geopolitics. \\

Even I, inventive as I am, could not come up with such a load of verbal excreta.

[ToraToraTora]

this whole "transition" cobras is unnecessary. We should leave with no deal, end of. Of course we have leverage I'm not going to go over all the arguments again for this VB glee fest. Send Lord Farage over pronto. We keep sending soft as cack nancy boys over. We need barmpot and juncket's Aprils kicked and we sent the wrong lot. They have no power to push us into these so called deals at all. Tell you what kromo why don't you tell us why we are "helpless" eh?

[Zacs-Master]

Yay. Clicheman is back!

[ToraToraTora]

cassa: "what makes us think we should have big world big stage politics? " - standard anti British BS, why do you hate this country so much?

[Jackdaw33]

@TTT

I was puzzled for a time over your use of the word April. I know what you mean but I couldn't parse it. All I could think of was April showers/flowers, neither of which made any sense. Then a light bulb came on and I got to thinking April in Paris. Am I on the right track?

[jno]

lol TTT, cassa's just as feverish a brexiter as you are, but go ahead, sink your teeth into your own side, you might as well all get hydrophobia

[Kromovaracun]

//Tell you what kromo why don't you tell us why we are "helpless" eh?//

We have zero leverage. The EU are a far larger proportion of our economy than vice versa. The size of the EU economy is second only to the USA. It can absorb the loss of the UK without too much trouble. They have a very clear incentive to make this unpleasant - the priority there is the integrity of the single market. What have we got against that? Nothing, as far as I can tell.

If a hard Brexit happens, furthermore, virtually all of our feasible candidates for replacing that portion of our trade are in trading blocs with very similar rules for trading with outsiders as the EU does - i.e. very limited. About all we've got is a shaky verbal commitment from the USA - a country with a gigantic imbalance of economic power who have no reason whatever to give us a preferential trade deal. Everybody knows that we are desperate. That's the position we have put ourselves in.

[Jackdaw33]

You might be desperate, I'm not.

[ToraToraTora]

Kromo: We have zero leverage - so the EU does not need us as a customer and a contributor at all? Have you told the German Car makers? the French Cheese and wine makers?

JD: Yes April in Paris, aris.....

[ToraToraTora]

once they start having to fund their whole sorry show without us other nations will leave, in the end the EU will collapse. They are just trying to milk what they can now.

[Kromovaracun]

//Have you told the German Car makers? the French Cheese and wine makers? //

The much-forecasted rescue by German manufacturers has not happened, and shows no signs of happening. There is no evidence whatever that German lobbyists are coming to help us. I'm not sure French wine makers or cheesemakers have quite as much lobbying power.

Now why do you suppose that is?

Fundamentally, the reason that the car industry has been quiet is that the UK government has not been remotely clear what it wants. The German car industry is (obviously) only going to lobby for the kind of Brexit that allows them to trade extensively - they are not going to lobby for one that doesn't. That means a 'soft' Brexit or Norway model, which the UK government has to all intents and purposes disavowed. Why would they want to help us down the opposite route when it isn't in their interests? If anything their best hope is for the EU to stay harsh on us in the hope that we crack and go for a softer Brexit.

[Kromovaracun]

Also, our importance as a market is directly tied to our spending power. Which in turn is very closely linked to the value of our currency. There's no guarantee at all that hard Brexit would leave the UK's spending power intact.

[Old_Geezer]

No sensible industry throws away market share. There's no reason why only effective EU membership (which must be a non-starter as nothing really changes) or an existing inadequate practice, has to be the only options. That's what negotiations are supposed to be about, to create bespoke agreements to maximise benefit. EU industry simply seems cowed at present, but who knows what's going on behind the scenes.

It'd be foolish to assume that insisting on cutting off one's nose to spite one's face would result in the best outcome. EU industry doesn't stand to gain the freedom goal a leaving nation achieves, and which makes minor temporary economic disruption worthwhile. It only has potential loss by continuing to act the intransigent player in negotiations. But if by inactivity they allow issues for themselves, that's their own fault.

The UK government need not be more clear. Obviously they'd want a true trading block agreement which has low tariffs and no obligations to give control over unrelated national matters to outside power groups. It's about trade not diminishing one's nation to be a subset of a large block controlled by outsiders, and not even able to have full secure control of it's own borders. If the EU dropped the, "We're in control, you'll do as you're told", attitude then that'd be a good start.

[Kromovaracun]

//The UK government need not be more clear. //

Not if it doesn't want any allies, no. But it certainly does need to be clearer if it expects industry lobbyists to come to their rescue - they are simply not going to lift a finger to help a hard Brexit along, because it's not in their interests.