How Will This Impact On Us In The Future

[emmie]

with low fertility rates across much of the world.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-46118103

[emmie]

Except for some countries who have high fertility rates, notably across Africa, Asia.

[Old_Geezer]

Not so much high fertility, more low planning/control.

[Zacs-Master]

Have you read down to the bit where it says 'What will the impact be?' ?

[emmie]

no planning/control you mean.

[emmie]

i read some of it, but thought you might like to
fill me in, and get your viewpoints.

[Old_Geezer]

There is an overwhelming need for a remarkable global decline in the number of children women are having, say anyone with any sense. Resources are limited, as is the planet's ability to cope the waste animals, especially humans, produce. We need more that one planet to maintain the existing population at a decently high lifestyle. Maybe some kind of correction is occurring to reduce present population sizes.

[Zacs-Master]

I don't think there's anyone on here more qualified than Dr Leeson or Prof Murray to give a more accurate prediction than the ones on the BBC website, emmie.

[ToraToraTora]

it's good isn't it? No shortage of people.

[Old_Geezer]

"He thinks workplaces are going to have to change and even the idea of retiring at 68, the current maximum in the UK, will be unsustainable."
This is nonsense. There is only a problem if insufficient folk of working age exist and are employed. But we've not had 100% employment. There are those surplus to working requirements already, thus the dole queue. It's the typical case of assuming one thing means another without thinking it through. We can be an age heavy society and still carry on. And with fewer unemployed younger folk.

[Zacs-Master]

Not necessarily, Tora, for the reasons given in the para 'What will the impact be?

[emmie]

zacs fair enough. I thought that with Europe, and many other parts of the world falling fertility rates will mean fewer babies born and that means an ageing population, who will look after them. And doesn't this affect our economy ultimately.

[Zacs-Master]

That's more or less what the two eminent people conclude, emmie. The only 'up' side is less strain on our resources but, you will note the reports conclude that the population isn't changing. And if the mean is becoming older, more strain will be put on healthcare and heating / cooling (as older people are more vulnerable to extremes of temperature).

[ToraToraTora]

"He thinks workplaces are going to have to change and even the idea of retiring at 68, the current maximum in the UK, will be unsustainable. " - I'd like to see that statement justified. When I was 14 the world population was approx half what it is now and men retired at 65. I know there are other factors but I can't see how having less children is anything other than a good thing.

[Zacs-Master]

Tora, it means that there will be fewer working age people, unless they raise the retirement age, meaning that the GDP of affected countries will fall.

Have a read of this:
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/346/6209/587

[Rockrose]

//Except for some countries who have high fertility rates, notably across Africa, Asia.//
These also have higher infant deaths

[emmie]

RR
i understand that, the mortality rates are high.

[Kromovaracun]

Fundamentally if the planet is to remain habitable, there need to be fewer people, and this is the least disruptive way of achieving that.

[emmie]

but won't it impact on our economy, more older people, ageing population, strain on the NHS, social services.

[Zacs-Master]

That's not the biggest thing economically, emmie. Every country runs an enormous debt against borrowing. If there are less working age people, the GDP falls meaning the debt is less serviceable. Pension pots become severely affected (depleted) and so the elderly are a greater burden on society through benefits. It's quite a viscous circle.

[fender62]

high fertility rates in wrong parts of the world, i do not think africa needs more children, less in fact and less again, perhaps then they could sustain themselves, muslim countries included..even more so
especially pakistan, as they seem to breed a lot religious fanatics..
thinking of asia bibi.