Thank you to Jeff Taylor for repeating what he read in the Telegraph. That saves me the need to buy that 'paper, although their crossword is my favourite among the dailies.
I will say immediately that I am in favour of remaining in the EU, so that anyone with a visceral objection can click away from this post now. All of my arguments have been expressed before, and I have no gift of augury to make statements of guaranteed truth. Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to preface every sentence for the rest of my post with the words "I believe ..." as it will save my typing finger.
Many people feel that the current EU is different to the organisation we joined way back in the 1970s. That does not surprise me one bit. The police now record interviews, schools do not use corporal punishment, very few people have doorstep milk deliveries, Donovan and Black Sabbath no longer provide new songs as the soundtrack to my leisure time, cars have seat belts, people who think that a pack of dogs accompanying a bunch of people on horseback taking on a single fox in mortal combat have to pretend they no longer do it, there are slightly more than three TV channels. It is what we call progress, and so far the UK has played a vital part in shaping the development of the EU. So important, in fact, that other members have accepted that we do not agree with them on every single point and have agreed a Thatcher-negotiated rebate and opt-outs on Schengen and the Euro, as they have made concessions to other members. Hardly the actions of a bullying autocrat.
The world has changed in other ways, too, and we face significant trading deficits with countries that were way behind us a few decades ago. China produces far more steel than it uses, for example, so is happy to dump it on other nations in the same way that some High Street shops have semi-permanent sales. The United States is currently on the brink of a significant trade war and would be happy to offload the produce China is no longer willing to buy from them. Some developing countries manufacture shoddy goods masquerading as trusted brands, including pharmaceutical items. A large trading bloc is better able to stand up to bullies and police the counterfeiters than a single nation, sharing the cost of enforcement methods.
The EU is the biggest trading bloc in the world. Other nations fear it, for reasons far removed from the anxieties of many UK citizens. They need to do business with the EU; it is too powerful and too diverse to ignore. Presidents of various other large nations are willing to resort to underhand methods to weaken its position by, for instance, advising prime ministers of member states to leave without negotiating a deal, hinting that they feel such affinity with us that they would put aside their own interests as a favour when it is clear that their priority is an arrangement with the bigger players. Another president might think it prudent to fund clandestine attempts to undermine UK democracy by subtler means: social media campaigns, cyber warfare, illegal funding of political campaigns.
While the size and influence of the EU needs to be highlighted, it is probably wise to consider the size and influence of the UK too. It is true that a significant portion of our overseas trade is with the EU, but that is slightly misleading. 'The EU' actually accounts for a tiny fraction of our business. The bulk of it is instead with Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Greece, Austria, ... A change in our relationship with the EU as a whole would hurt the UK far more than it would any of those individual states. Naturally we will continue to trade with them, and with the other nations around the world with whom the EU has negotiated deals on favourable terms, but these sales and purchases would be subject to new rules, tariffs and taxes.
Oops! Word limit approaching. New box needed.