What's Happenned To Nochange Uk?

[ToraToraTora]

https://news.sky.com/story/nigel-farages-brexit-party-polling-higher-than-labour-and-tories-combined-before-eu-elections-11717553
I'd have thought they'd attract the remoaners in droves like BP has attracted the Brexiteers.

[Old_Geezer]

The remoaners have main parties to vote for.

[naomi24]

They were dead in the water from the beginning.

[Spicerack]

Ukip are polling higher than Nochange.
It must have dawned on them by now that they've flushed their gravy train down the toilet.

[ichkeria]

A yougov poll in today’s Times has (look away now Tory voters)
BP: 34%
Labour: 16
Lib Dem: 15
Green: 11
Con: 10
Change UK: 5
Others or none including UKIP: 9

That looks as though it’s the Lib Dems with their simple slogan and recent poll successes who are attracting most of the anti-Brexit vote.
A crude analysis of who might vote best in a referendum based on that suggests a 52-48 split for Remain, which is broadly in line with opinion polls over the last year, assuming most residual Labour and maybe half Tory (tho impossible to say with them) would vote Remain again.
As I said in another post the anti Brexit vote goes in different directions, tho supporters of the Brexit Party should bear in mind that while Farage unites people who already committed to Brexit, he’s s rank turn off for many others.

[ToraToraTora]

good point OG but I thought they'd attract remainers because we are told they are no less angry than the brexiteers over the brexit fiasco.

[naomi24]

//the Lib Dems with their simple slogan…//

Incredible that people don’t recognise that the simple slogan confirms that they are anything but democratic. Never was there a more inappropriately named political party.

[Old_Geezer]

I'd have thought that some of the main party votes would be leave and others remain. I find it hard to imagine Remain on 52% looking at those figures. Even if in the unlikely event that ALL, Liberal, Labour, Green, and Change votes are remain ones, that's only 47%, and one is then trying to get another 4% from Tory and UKIP.

[ichkeria]

My “crude analysis” is based on:
34 + 4 Lab + 5 Con + 3 UKIP (as it turns out) = 46
12 Lab + 15 LD + 11 Green + 5 Con + 5 CUK = 48
With 6 unaccounted for which I’ve awarded 4-2 to Remain to make up for a possible generous allocation to the other side from the “main” parties :-)
The original question tho about Change UK is possibly answered above it tho; the Lib Dems, like the Brexit Party, have a much clearer message on this.

[dannyk13]

Ich, your maths doesn't stack,m up as you are presuming that all labour are for remaining etc.

[jim360]

No he isn't: if you look again, ich split the Labour vote 12:4 in favour of remain, and Tories evenly (5:5).

I mean, the analysis may still be flawed -- although every poll I have seen lately suggests that there are at least as many, and usually slightly more, remain voters than leave voters -- but not in the way you've stated.

[naomi24]

Polls, schmolls. Hang on to your hats!

[jim360]

Polls are quite useful if you know how to use them properly. At the moment, for example, it tells us that the Brexit Party is doing rather well because it's basically picking up about half of the Tory vote, but very little from elsewhere (at the moment, and excluding UKIP). At the European Elections this will presumably be enough, but if anyone wanted the Brexit Party to actually *do* anything, rather than merely be a receptacle for Leave voters' anger, then it won't be.

But this was about Change UK, and I guess the answer to the question is that (a) Remainers have other, longer-established parties to go to, and that's where they are going, and (b) some of them aren't moving at all: dyed-in-the-wool Labour and Tory voters who didn't vote Leave just aren't shifting.

[Spicerack]

Every poll I saw last week had the Cucks on 2%. I wonder what happened for them to increase by 150%?
Sozzleberry getting booed on Question Time, I suppose.

[naomi24]

//it's basically picking up about half of the Tory vote, but very little from elsewhere//

That’s not what I hear … but then I’m only listening to dyed in the wool Tory and Labour voters who voted Leave - and Remainers from both parties who are sick of the lies. Dismayed would be a good word.

[jim360]

// Every poll I saw last week had Change UK on 2%. I wonder what happened for them to increase by 150%? //

Random variation, probably. Or a slightly different question being asked? Eg in YouGov's latest poll, Change UK is on 2% in Westminster Voting Intention, but 5% in the EU Parliament elections. Brexit Party almost doubles itself, actually, going from 18% to 34% respectively between those two different questions.

[jim360]

The same poll I've cited suggests that the Brexit Party is picking up about 7% (12%) of the Labour vote share depending on whether it's Westminster or European (bracketed) elections they asked about. In comparison they are getting about 33% (62%) of the Tory voters in 2017. Maybe 7% is only "very little" subjectively, but certainly it's true that the vast majority of Brexit Party supporters currently are Tory/UKIP voters.

[naomi24]

Despite the spin there is no doubt that several million Labour voters voted ‘Leave’ and in the EU elections their views on Brexit will, in my opinion, influence their choice of MEP. Whilst they, like Tory voters, will probably revert to type in a General Election, on this issue there’s every likelihood that they will register their disgust/disillusionment with current UK politicians just as Tory voters will. This result of these elections will, I hope, result in lessons being learned … but given the arrogance of the majority of our representatives who are making every effort to deny democracy in blatantly thwarting the result of the referendum, I’m not holding my breath on that one.

[cassa333]

I lost faith in polls.

All I know is that The Brexit Party has my vote and will continue to until we have a proper Brexit.

[jim360]

// Despite the spin there is no doubt that several million Labour voters voted ‘Leave’... //

What spin? I think it's generally accepted that about a third of Labour supporters (so maybe 3-4 million or so) voted Leave. But as of yet they haven't gone over to the Brexit Party. Maybe this will change come May 23rd, but until then polls are the clearest sign we can get about which people are supporting Farage's new party.

[naomi24]

//I think it's generally accepted that about a third of Labour supporters (so maybe 3-4 million or so) voted Leave. But as of yet they haven't gone over to the Brexit Party. //

Most of them haven't been asked.