Labour Won Peterborough

[Spicerack]

Big turn up for the books.

[youngmafbog]

I think we should have a second vote as it was so close :-J

[jim360]

A surprise, to be sure. But a welcome one...

[Gromit]

Brexit (and the Greens and LibDems) did well in the EU elections because the voting system is different and the constituencies are larger.
In General and by-elections, the constituencies have been gerrymandered over many decades to favour Labour or the Conservatives, and the winners takes all counting method makes it a lot harder for small parties to do well.
The result for the Brexit Party was very very good, especially when you consider that the process is stacked against them.

[Ken4155]

Just heard Farage's reaction to the result. He says that his party are "pretty buoyed by the result". Then again, what else could he say. Protest votes have their place, but bins being emptied on time will always win out.

[agchristie]

//Briefing the BP candidate would be nowhere near enough. //

To expand on that a little,the BP candidate ought to have been able to look at the weaknesses in the local issues and put forth a more convincing argument than the Labour Party.

I cannot imagine that despite the name 'Brexit Party' that the strategy was devoted entirely to one issue.

The local candidate would need to be fully prepared to have an answer to any queries on local issues.

[ichkeria]

I don’t think the Brexit Party had many candidates who are up to more than talking about Brexit.
I heard one of them in Any Questions a few weeks ago and he was embarrassingly awful on any subject other than ...

[Ken4155]

They are seen by many as 'one trick ponies'. Then again, the clue is in the name. Is it not?

[vetuste_ennemi]

//VE - you don't need to have any issues to get a postal vote. Though I'm sure you knew that.//

No, I didn't, Mamya. My wife had a postal vote in her last years because of her illness. And I posted her vote, but didn't choose her candidate.

[agchristie]

Ich,Lisa Forbes campaigned on a 'message of hope' and pledged to tackle fly-tipping and ask for more resources for police and schools.

Any other candidate should be able to do that and more.It's not difficult is it?

[youngmafbog]

Forbes appears to have campaigned like a Councillor, and on council topics.

Not sure that would cut the mustard for me, it did work but would it in another. I suspect not. Like I say, it's all about the data you collect. Tories, Libs and Labour have had decades to collect it.

[agchristie]

Forbes has lived in Cambs for over 30 years which I suppose is always a plus despite her recent tweet gaffe.

The seat was there for the taking last night and the opportunity was missed.

There will be much tougher nuts to crack and one has to wonder that allowing Labour in this instance to increase their majority does not bode well for NF in the short or medium term I reckon.

[jim360]

Well, I mean, increasing the majority feels a little misleading. Labour got 31% of the vote this time, and 48% last time, so really this represents huge swings away from the two main parties. I still wouldn't want to be in Labour's shoes in a GE, with Brexit Party and, yes, the Lib Dems (albeit not in Peterborough) breathing down my neck.

[ichkeria]

"Ich,Lisa Forbes campaigned on a 'message of hope' and pledged to tackle fly-tipping and ask for more resources for police and schools.

Any other candidate should be able to do that and more.It's not difficult is it? "

That is not what the Brexit Party is about though. Plainly.

[vetuste_ennemi]

I'm depressed by the populace not having sent the sipped off message.

[naomi24]

//I'm depressed by the populace not having sent the sipped off message. //

Me too. I fully expect the electorate to revert pretty much to its political allegiances in a general election but this is not only an alarming choice, it's an opportunity missed.

[agchristie]

Jim,that may be so regarding the swing percentages but given that a GE is more than about local issues,the BP is essentially all about one big issue but is that enough?

As has been mentioned,where manifestos are concerned the BP have a massive amount of work to do in all areas.

Should Labour be that afraid where the BP are concerned? I'm not so sure.

The Labour Party have enough of their own more problematic issues to contend with and we all know what they are.

[jim360]

I've made no such endorsement, ve.

[agchristie]

Ich //That is not what the Brexit Party is about though. Plainly.//

Obviously not but the BP's 'message of hope' should nullify Labour's and any BP candidate should be able to express a view on any local issues.

Is Forbes a better listener? More reliable? More charismatic?

[jim360]

I think what we'll see before too long is that the Brexit Party is, despite people's claims to the contrary, mostly made up of angry Tory voters. So they'll do well in seats that were strongly Tory, and less well -- although maybe several strong second places -- in seats that were either Labour strongholds or Labour/Tory marginals.

I mean, the other factor here is that time is still likely to play into the Brexit Party's hands. It will be very difficult -- if not impossible -- for the new PM to lead the UK out of the EU this year, and even if they do then there's still years of work to be done to actually sort things out.

[agchristie]

//I mean, the other factor here is that time is still likely to play into the Brexit Party's hands...//

Not if Labour (and the Conservatives) got their own acts together and tackled their in-house problems.