Your Predictions On Brexit

[fender62]

will parliamnet pass any deal, can we leave without a deal, or does it have to be voted on.
how does it actually work..

[Old_Geezer]

Parliament won't pass anything like Brexit, it has too many massive egos wanting to stop the people's decision. Either the government finds a way to pass it without parliament sticking it's oar in, or parliament needs to be on it's hols when the deadline passes.

[ichkeria]

So you support the deal then after all OG?

[jim360]

It's neither possible nor desirable to ignore Parliament in this matter. Forcing through the sort of exit OG wants in the manner he desires (ie, government bypassing Parliament) will simply not happen, unless the party in question wants to destroy itself and the country with it.

Still, having ruled that out, I have no real idea what will actually happen next. The most likely outcome, I think, is that Parliament ends up capitulating to the inevitable and voting through the Withdrawal Agreement in more or less its current form, but with the proviso that the question be put to the people for a second referendum.

[Calicogirl]

As I said to start with...
Not.
Going.
To.
Happen.

[dannyk13]

Jim, if no deal is struck then, by default,we leave on 31st October.

[jim360]

Yes, dannyk, but since neither side wants that to happen -- or, at least, anyone who says they do is either posturing or recklessly irresponsible -- then we'll just have a repeat of the drama of March 29th and April 23rd.

[dannyk13]

Jim, I think that will depend on who becomes PM.

[Calicogirl]

Well let's see who has the fewest knives lodged in their backs when this Tory Leader Circus is resolved, but i'm still betting we never leave.

[dannyk13]

Calico, unless there is a change in the law( A50 was enacted into law) then is no option, we will leave.

[jim360]

It won't depend on who's PM, though: If a PM is chosen who wants No Deal, then they'll lose the support of the Commons and be forced to call an election (and forced to request an extension from the EU). It's simply not an option that can be taken seriously, default or not. And if the EU threatens to force us out with No Deal then Parliament would instead force a revocation of Article 50 notification.

[Calicogirl]

Article 50 would be the easiest thing in the world to revoke though Danny, that's really not an obstacle.

[pixie374]

If we don't have a beneficial deal by that time, then the only possible option should be no deal.

[mushroom25]

//but with the proviso that the question be put to the people for a second referendum. //
"the question..."

er, what question Jim? do you really believe there's any chance of parliament agreeing any wording, without either side accusing the other of trying to split the vote?

[dannyk13]

Calico, to revoke Article 50 would require an act of Parliament and there would not be time to get it passed before 31st October.

[pixie374]

A second referendum would be entirely pointless while ignoring the first. Unless we ignore all referendums equally... is that the plan?

[JimF]

October 2019 - UK leaves EU with no deal and the Brexit Party folds, its job done.

November 2019 - general election which Labour wins but not with an absolute majority, so forms coalition with Greens. Lib Dems and Tories consigned to temporary wilderness.

2020 - Scotland wins independence and is fast-tracked back into the EU, adopts the Euro and begins unprecedented period of population growth and prosperity.

2020 / 2021 - ROI and NI reunite, taking NI immediately back into the EU.

2021-25 - rUK enters biggest recession in world history.

[mushroom25]

plus there will need to be a deferral of at least 22 weeks to accommodate another vote - what's the chance of the EU agreeing to that when there's no guarantee of "the right answer" at the end of it?

[TonyV]

I think EU has already said there will be no extension so 31st of October it is come what may (no pun intended) deal or no deal (perhaps Noel Edmunds can help out)

[baza]

If the EU wants to let us leave then why do we just not go ? We did the art.50 bit, tried weak negotiations and now being stuffed by remainers, time to go I think.

[mushroom25]

//2020 / 2021 - ROI and NI reunite,//

JimF, do you really think that's realistic? Ian Paisley may be gone but his ghost casts a long shadow, and already I can hear it being speechless with rage......