Sir Jeremy Farrar Says The Uk Could Be The Worst Country In Europe For Deaths Through The C19 Virus

[Bobbisox1]

I’d like to ask, WHY?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-52261857/coronavirus-uk-likely-to-be-worst-affected-country-in-europe

[pixie374]

Denser population? We have lots of people, and less space.

[Bobbisox1]

Yes I suppose that’s come back to bite us on the bums now Pixie

[jim360]

A good deal of what Pixie says is likely to be at play, along with an apparent failure to make the most of the extra time we had. It was constantly emphasised earlier that we were "three or four weeks behind Italy", and it's therefore surprising and more than a little troubling, to see that we're maybe a week or two away from being ahead of them in terms of total deaths.

[Bobbisox1]

It really is Jim

[jim360]

Probably closer to two weeks, I should say. The one week estimate is careless on my part, I'm still a bit tired and forgot that Italy's death total is going to grow at the same time as ours.

[Bobbisox1]

I was about to say and we’re a lot smaller than Italy, but I don’t think we are ?

[Peter Pedant]

because you havent accessed any of the modelling sites suggested by Jimbo, FF and myself - to which I notice you have contributed

here is one here
https://www.youxtube.com/watch?v=m6Hr69JH_wA
removed the x in youtube and it will play.
Least turgid of some pretty icky products on offer
The NHS training one is available if you search Zhukov epidemiology in the you tube -

Total number of the dead is the area under the curve
your question in modelling goes down to - "if you flatten the sombrero curve do you also make the area smaller?"

answer yes - then some lives will be saved
answer no - they would have died anyway but sooner

and I hope a pure maff man who has seen the viddies and understands the equations can answer that
FF, Jim are you out there ?

[Gromit]

That seems to be the current school of thought.

// A US institute that predicted deaths from Covid-19 in the UK would be the highest in Europe at 66,000 has revised down its forecasts as a result of new data.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, based at the University of Washington in Seattle, now predicts 37,494 deaths in the UK by 4 August, although it said the figure could be between 26,000 and 62,500.

Despite the lower figure, it still predicts the UK will have the highest death toll in Europe. //

The short version why?
The UK Government were slow to impose isolation and travel bans, when the rest of Europe had already done it.
Also, must countries that have successfully contained the virus did so by testing many people, and tracing who they had been in contact with. None of that has been done here, which is why Germany (a country of similar population) has less than 3,000 deaths, and the UK has nearly 10,000.

[Bobbisox1]

If only I could follow your mind set PP ,SIGHHH

[Bobbisox1]

Thanks Gromit

[Gromit]

When the Government were still going for ‘Herd Immunity’ (everyone getting it) and Boris said ‘we might have to just take it on the chin’ (bet he wished he’d not said that), most of our European neighbours had introduced lockdown. We did that 16 days later by which time the virus had spread unrestrained.

[Peter Pedant]

so long as the admission curve has a turning point - then you can estimate the area under the curve and get a total

altho with my built in lag-ometer I thought we were level pegging with Italy in terms of time - so you just need to do a bit of twiddling

Italy Pop 55m and we are 60
but the disease in Italy is very stratified - up t north
and that can be incorporated into the 'standard' model - see the oxford viddie

[Peter Pedant]

the viddies are er 'good' Bobby

[ichkeria]

On the other hand the more people who have it the more the immunity will also spread
I am puzzled by the huge discrepancy in figures.
The third world has so far got off very lightly thank goodness

[fiction-factory]

>The third world has so far got off very lightly thank goodness

I think we'll find out whether that is actually the true position later. I saw some stats for some countries which were unbelievably low- can't remember if Congo or Sudan or somewhere like that

[shoota]

Are those countries who did their best to avoid a big hit (early lockdowns etc) more likely to get a second wave?

[fiction-factory]

I will watch your youtube video PP later if I get chance but I'm not sure it's anything I can influence or do anything about even if I understand all the models

[Peter Pedant]

// When the Government were still going for ‘Herd Immunity’ (everyone getting it)//

yes a politician cant get it right all the time - and when they do they turn out to be - - - tony Bliar
maladroit and clumsy - a bit like Matt H a few days ago

on the models cited already that no one wishes to watch, it would be 60% ( measles 95% ) Herd immunity for the epidemic to die out on its won.- we werent testing.
so there was a chorus on AB of we didnt know diddly squat.

But of those tested with signs, the positive rate was 10%
so it was OK to conclude the rate in the population was not greater than 10%
and erm that is nowhere near 60%

today it is running at 20% - so we have some way to go and the scientists were paid to know that sort of thing

[Gromit]

Ich,

I too keep looking at the figures, but they don’t seem to follow a logical pattern.

The southern hemisphere is pretty poor and do less international travel, and do far less international business.
I fear the ticking time-bomb is India. When it eventually hits there, many will die, because health services are very poor.

[jim360]

Low case reports also have a lot to do with testing. The US currently has the highest number of confirmed cases, which has a lot to do with the massive increase in testing there in the last three weeks or so. Testing rates in Africa right now are simply too low to understand the true spread of the disease there. But I'd be worried that it will start to explode there, too. It may only be in May that it starts to take off there.