ChatterBank0 min ago
Cure Vs Disease Part 2
30 Answers
Following on from Tora’s post, I read the following article from the NY Times magazine the other day. It has some very interesting points made by various luminaries. I was going to tag it into an answer on Tora’s thread but felt it was worth of its own post. Hope that’s OK with everyone.
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How much more naive the suggestion that Covid wouldn't have a major impact on excess deaths given the latest release of ONS statistics, showing a 60% increase in deaths in the week ending April 3rd -- and that when we hadn't even got close to the peak.
Yes, it's right that I can't *know* what would have happened if the world had just carried on as usual. But I can be reasonably confident that it would have been, and still could be, brutal. It stands to reason that something that's caused a huge excess in deaths recorded would continue to do so for some time, across the world, and in large numbers. We're at 120,000 now but that's only the deaths we *know* to have been caused by or related to Covid-19, which therefore represents an undercounting of the true figures, and only an incomplete picture because we still have months to go yet.
10 million deaths minimum, in that context and assuming no response whatsoever, seems frankly ludicrously optimistic more than anything else.
Yes, it's right that I can't *know* what would have happened if the world had just carried on as usual. But I can be reasonably confident that it would have been, and still could be, brutal. It stands to reason that something that's caused a huge excess in deaths recorded would continue to do so for some time, across the world, and in large numbers. We're at 120,000 now but that's only the deaths we *know* to have been caused by or related to Covid-19, which therefore represents an undercounting of the true figures, and only an incomplete picture because we still have months to go yet.
10 million deaths minimum, in that context and assuming no response whatsoever, seems frankly ludicrously optimistic more than anything else.
Approximately 5-6 million people die every month across the world. If the excess death rate is say 50% (ONS suggests 60% at present for UK) then that would mean an extra 2.5 - 3 million a month, so could easily reach 10 million by the end of this year- possibly by summer if it takes hold in India and Africa. Imagine what the figures would be without any sort of lockdown
Yes, maybe internal flights are still allowed- our trains are still running here for example- but I think cargo and private flights may account for some of it. It wouldn't surprise me though if nothing much had changed in US- some state officials in some states seemed to have very little knowledge of Covid a couple of weeks ago
Very interesting article:
https:/
https:/
well it is nice to see people well sort of groping rather than just blaarting
I am sure that the posts wont be cleared/deleted as I cant understand them and presumably the ed cant either. But who can tell - my Prince Harry frou-frou got skewered for some reason
just a few points to depress
the life saving bit cd be measured in QALYs - quality adjusted life years - but what is the cost of lockdown measured in - £ - qualy not suitable
or pounds per qualy ?
This analysis which is not new. It is useful for comparing two courses of action, It is never useful for 'shall we do this or not' question. The do-nothing - spend-nothing and therefore cost nothing option always wins.
the mortality of Covid 1.5%
nope - if only it was
in dear old blighty 15%
only a variation of 10x or 900%
oo - er Mrs ! oh you mean the mortality of covid SHOULD be 1.5% - well yeah go for it !
let us assume 30% get it
well it is going to be a long wait -we are hovering at 1% - only a variation of 30x 0r 2900%
and I didnt read the rest of the long entry
but thanks
I am sure that the posts wont be cleared/deleted as I cant understand them and presumably the ed cant either. But who can tell - my Prince Harry frou-frou got skewered for some reason
just a few points to depress
the life saving bit cd be measured in QALYs - quality adjusted life years - but what is the cost of lockdown measured in - £ - qualy not suitable
or pounds per qualy ?
This analysis which is not new. It is useful for comparing two courses of action, It is never useful for 'shall we do this or not' question. The do-nothing - spend-nothing and therefore cost nothing option always wins.
the mortality of Covid 1.5%
nope - if only it was
in dear old blighty 15%
only a variation of 10x or 900%
oo - er Mrs ! oh you mean the mortality of covid SHOULD be 1.5% - well yeah go for it !
let us assume 30% get it
well it is going to be a long wait -we are hovering at 1% - only a variation of 30x 0r 2900%
and I didnt read the rest of the long entry
but thanks
