Florida/Texas Today, Uk Tomorrow ?

[Canary42]

Boris, beware.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53205720

[fender62]

sad as it is, you cannot lockdown indefinitely here or in the states.

[Peter Pedant]

amongst all the neo aryan propaganda questions - I have to wade froo every dat
a proper one !
well done
No is tha answer

for a variety of clear reasons
1.we are post first wave and expecting another and are planning as to what to do. Fauci has said - this is not in the USA a second wave - they havent got thro the first one !
2.everyone expects central authority to exert power - lock down, partial lock down, shoot immigrants pyrexial or not if they "look hot" or whatever
3. Trump apparently is an economic president who doesnt think public health is his concern. shades of the thirties - FDR and so on ( who did think central govt had a role = coolidge didnt)

[Peter Pedant]

sorry pressed send
the curves are different

Pence has said "you cannot expect the land of the free to do things like lock down" and ewconomic activity is central

both of which are not in the London possies thinking

Arizona and Florida have exponential onset curves - quite spectac.
a lot of curves are like sleeping policemen but those two states the line goes off the top of the paper

and so I invite readers to agree that - different facts lead to different conclusions ( xc NJ who thinks it is all crip anyway and we should be like Sweden that did nothing and now has runaway probz)

[Peter Pedant]

// sad as it is, you cannot lockdown indefinitely here or in the states.//
well they didnt did they durrr
and you see the results

shrugging shoulders and pouting " well what CAN we do?" I suggest is NOT the answer

[ChingWan23]

God bless the world. We can't handle it.

[jim360]

At the risk of tempting fate, the situation in the UK may not be comparable to this. The US has rushed to ease lockdowns but it never really left the first wave (although it's complicated because different states have been affected differently).

On the other hand I've noticed a slight uptick in NHS England hospital death figures this week. I'm hoping it's just an anomaly rather than a sign of worse to come.

[woofgang]

jim I think I saw this last weeks uptick explained as an error in previous counts....now I know as I say this there will be mumbles of "they would say that wouldn't they" but I put it out there for what its worth.

[jim360]

I think that was a different part of it -- there were something like 150 deaths added to the total on Wednesday or some such. This is also data based on the last few days/week of Hospital deaths.

It may be nothing.

[ichkeria]

There seems to be a general trend that the number of deaths as a percentage of the number of hospital cases is falling.
I’m not a big fan of this government but I wholly support the easing of the lockdown measures because we cannot go on like this indefinitely. And I doubt if the lockdown would or even could be reimposed now, not on a national basis anyway

[Peter Pedant]

the case fatality ration ( not rate - there has to be a time factor for a rate) was an incredible 15% so I certainly hope it is going down

rows and rows of ventilated patients is NOT the cure-all they thought it wd be. they are reporting lung damage even in unventilated hospitalised patients but it is now known ( as ever) if it is permanent.

oh, Jim if you are reading - you figure ( as an armchair epidemiologist) on = you feature on .....


https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000jw02

as your figures were more accurate than the ministry's when you were plotting the numbers. "Arnchair epidemiologist" was used as an insult but since they got it Right more than the ministry - all the geeks are wearing that badge with pride. Naughty Neil (bonker, Ferguson) DIDN'T update his figures as they came in - and you did.
and then correctly reported to us that the figures seemed not to fit.

I cant believe the ministry had info coming in but was not incorporated into the models and therefore advice but that is what seemed to happen. [Ro far to low, doubling time far too long - oops]. "I didnt put it into the model as I was too busy bonking" - that cdnt have happened in 2020 innit?

[jim360]

This is one of those times when I kind of wish I could understand you more clearly. I *think* it's a compliment, although I have to say I'm not sure I deserve it if so. I didn't follow up yet on the stuff I was doing in March, April and May, although I looked back at what I wrote in May and it seems that my prediction for around 30,000 total hospital deaths in England (assuming only a single wave) was sadly quite accurate.

[Peter Pedant]

just read the script Jim
Your predictions were more accurate than the ministry's
god I write in English

yes you are right I didnt refer to the predictions you didnt make nor the ones you intended to do. might have done and write up but never got around to it (Jesus just take the compliment)

[jim360]

I suppose I was really hoping that I was going to be wrong.

[sanmac]

It seems like the people in Florida are not paying any attention to the situation: https://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/naples/?cam=naplespier

[fiveleaves]

Lockdown doesn't sit well with the American character. They have a strong work ethic as well as a strong play ethic.
All nations now have to find a way to live with Covid 19 until a suitable virus is found. Blanket lockdowns cant last until then so different solutions are needed. How about a world class track and trace system?

[New Judge]

However it turns out in the UK in the coming weeks and months one thing is certain - a lockdown like the one we are just about to emerge from, or indeed anything like it, is absolutely out of the question. In the first instance most of the population will ignore it as far as circulating goes (so longer as the weather is decent) but the secondly, if the government forcibly closes a huge swathe of the economy again it will see total economic collapse (or as near as makes no odds). People who believe that everything economically is hunky-dory needs to think again. Jobs are beginning to disappear by the thousand and if the hospitality industry is hamstrung by the "guidance" being issued to facilitate its reopening, jobs will disappear from that very important sector by the shedload too.

Error after error seems to have been made when dealing with this crisis. Even now, when the serious economic repercussions seem obvious for all (well, most) to see, the reopening of the economy under the conditions (sorry, "guidance") provided means that many outlets may be better off remaining closed. Many already have closed for good and many more are on the brink of doing so. A good few more will follow them if some of the ridiculous "guidance" is not ditched.

[youngmafbog]

Couldn't agree more NJ.

Let the worriers hide behind their sofa and the rest of us get on and try and rebuild for our children and grandchildren. This needs to be done with utmost haste before it is too late. By the end of the year I suspect millions will be on the old rock and roll with no chance of finding employment. Sad times ahead for some.