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Dare We Hope?
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It would be marvellous if this could be put out before October and the ‘flu season, we can but hope that there’s going to be a breakthrough against this terrible illness
It would be marvellous if this could be put out before October and the ‘flu season, we can but hope that there’s going to be a breakthrough against this terrible illness
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08:02 Thu 16th Jul 2020
I have been tested positive for covid after a week spell in hospital for a heart problem. So far a cough has been the problem. Whenever I see any reports, especially tabloids, when they try to start false hopes of vaccines, the words to look for are:- could, would, may, maybe, undergoing, should, possibility, might, potential etc etc. They are just dangling carrots to sell their paper.
//NJ, if we live our daily lives as best we can but with no hope for the future then that's a pretty bleak outlook.//
Living our lives as we are at the moment presents a bleak future, mamy. Young people have been denied a huge chunk of their education (with no guarantee that they will return to school) and many people have already lost their jobs with many more to come. This virus will not be wiped out but nor will t wipe out all human life on Earth. In fact if it claims 0.05% of humans (around 700,000) I would be very surprised.
//There’s was talk of making it compulsory FF?//
Good luck to them with that. That said, they have scared half the population witless since March to such a degree that many of them are scared to go out of their front door (and the PM wonders why people are reluctant to return to work) and have softened up many more with their progressively intrusive “guidance”. Look on social media and you will find posts accusing those venturing out without a full biohaz suit as “granny killers”. It’s not hard to see why we’re in the state we’re in.
Living our lives as we are at the moment presents a bleak future, mamy. Young people have been denied a huge chunk of their education (with no guarantee that they will return to school) and many people have already lost their jobs with many more to come. This virus will not be wiped out but nor will t wipe out all human life on Earth. In fact if it claims 0.05% of humans (around 700,000) I would be very surprised.
//There’s was talk of making it compulsory FF?//
Good luck to them with that. That said, they have scared half the population witless since March to such a degree that many of them are scared to go out of their front door (and the PM wonders why people are reluctant to return to work) and have softened up many more with their progressively intrusive “guidance”. Look on social media and you will find posts accusing those venturing out without a full biohaz suit as “granny killers”. It’s not hard to see why we’re in the state we’re in.
//NJ, I simply don't believe that abandoning hope is the way to live,..//
I'm not abandoning hope. I never had any hope that an effective vaccine would be developed in a reasonable time frame and in fact I doubt one will be found at all. I based that belief on the fact that very few effective vaccines are developed against viruses and those that are found take many years to perfect.
With that in mind I decided that I am not going to live the remainder of my life paralysed with fear, afraid to step out of the house, fearful of coming 1.99m away from another human being and shunning everything that anybody else has touched. That most certainly is not the way to live. It's not what I do and it's not what I am going to do bearing in mind that there is roughly a 1 in 4,000 chance of me even encountering somebody with the virus, let alone me catching it from them.
I'm not abandoning hope. I never had any hope that an effective vaccine would be developed in a reasonable time frame and in fact I doubt one will be found at all. I based that belief on the fact that very few effective vaccines are developed against viruses and those that are found take many years to perfect.
With that in mind I decided that I am not going to live the remainder of my life paralysed with fear, afraid to step out of the house, fearful of coming 1.99m away from another human being and shunning everything that anybody else has touched. That most certainly is not the way to live. It's not what I do and it's not what I am going to do bearing in mind that there is roughly a 1 in 4,000 chance of me even encountering somebody with the virus, let alone me catching it from them.
From about 16,000 current infections, Corby. 66m ÷ 16,000 = 4,000 or thereabouts. Don't know where the 16k comes from. Seen it bandied about somewhere. Probably not too far adrift as the number of new cases over the last three weeks was 13k. I had heard it quoted at 1 in 2,000. In any event, long enough for me to decide it doesn't warrant life in a nuclear bunker.
The ONS state, "We estimate around 1 in 2,300 individuals within the community population in England had COVID-19 within the most recent week, from 6 July to 12 July 2020."
That's higher than 1 in 4,000 but the ONS figure makes the risks sound very unlikely.
However, that probability of 1 on 2,300 is based on a single event, if there are repeated events, the probability increases.
If the number infected remains constant at about 0.04% and you meet folk each day for a month, the probability of meeting an infected person during that time goes up to 1.35% or about 1 in 75.
That's higher than 1 in 4,000 but the ONS figure makes the risks sound very unlikely.
However, that probability of 1 on 2,300 is based on a single event, if there are repeated events, the probability increases.
If the number infected remains constant at about 0.04% and you meet folk each day for a month, the probability of meeting an infected person during that time goes up to 1.35% or about 1 in 75.
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