Government Scientists’ Statement Today...

[Gromit2]

...warned of 1,500,000 new corona cases a month, and 6000 deaths

Why were we told that ?

[-SharonA-]

To frighten you!!!

[TrevorThePug]

To deflect attention from the PMs Italian jaunt to his Russian paymaster.

[Peter Pedant]

Hmm looks as tho my vizeet to Castle Barnard is off

if you look at the new cases graph it looks as tho ( exp ) it is gonna speed off the top of the paper.

why didnt they estimate a mortality of 15% - a million cases and 150 000 deaths? - embarassment probably

[Peter Pedant]

heard and seen the broadcast

doubling every 7 days or week as the doctors call it
NOT 2,6,8 how do we appreciate !
but 2,4,8,16 .....

the govt scientists are very conscious of finkers like NJ - whose constant refrain, is - it didnt happen like they said it would and that shows irretrievably that modelling is always crap and never to be believed

[you know like if you are speeding towards a wall and are gonna crash in it and DDDIIIIIEEEEEE ! and you brake then it shows brakes are crap because the crash didnt happen]/

there must be a time that everyone has had it and so it cant go on forever. In fact the curve must therefore turn at some point. That is around 60% have had an infection and we are at 6%. That means to me that the theory about herd immunity is crap but hey still on AB there are people espousing it like it is moses' tablets of stone. free finkers I call them

as the egg heads say - - - it is up to us
we play now - - - and DDDIIIIEEEE! later

[New Judge]

//the govt scientists are very conscious of finkers like NJ - whose constant refrain, is - it didnt happen like they said it would and that shows irretrievably that modelling is always crap and never to be believed//

Please don't keep attributing rubbish like that to me, Peter. Certainly I've criticised scientific modelling on here - especially that of Prof Fergusson, though I think with some justification. But I've never made such an incoherent statement along the lines you suggest.

I appreciate your quirky sense of humour but constantly spouting the same nonsensical rubbish and attributing it to me because I don't share your view is wearing a bit thin. If you want people to take notice of you you'll have to do a little better.

[Old_Geezer]

No doubt they'll be analysing their prediction when the result comes in.

[Gromit2]

OG,

There early predictions were VERY wide of the mark. They said 8,000 might die, and we are now at 40,000+

[Old_Geezer]

They probably didn't take into account sending the infected back to the old folk "care" homes. How wide of the mark were they taking that into consideration ?

[Gromit2]

OG

If a tipster tells you a horse will come first, and it comes last, you don’t trust them again.
Everybody seems to be winging it at the moment. I don’t think anyone knows, so any predictions are suspect.

[woofgang]

Gromit "They" (actually Sir Patrick) didn't say that. He said (and I remember his face when he said it) that if we were lucky we would keep the deaths down to 20,000. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/stories-52419218

[Deskdiary]

Vallance twice said the numbers were “not a predication” he also said the numbers were an “example scenario”.

Another example scenario is that the numbers will be a tiny fraction of the scaremongering example given.

[eve1974]

Any idea what time boris or Whitty are making their announcement today (tues)?

[Neveracrossword]

Eve, the Telegraph said that Boris was expected to address the nation at 8 pm.

[youngmafbog]

Gromit (or Gromit2) will only ever use the most outlandish predictions and stats seems, like others, to get off on it.

These two jokers need reigning in. They knew very well how some would take the figures no matter how they described them (as DD has said above)

[dannyk13]

I don't know whether or not they were exaggerating but look what is happening in Spain and France where cases are mounting exponentially.

[youngmafbog]

Stop looking at cases Danny, they dont mean a thing on their own. Look at the wider picture.

[dannyk13]

ymb //Stop looking at cases Danny,//
It is from the cases that you get hospitalisation and deaths.The more cases the more chances of that.

[Old_Geezer]

But at different proportions. Which is why cases is not a good measure of the issue. They are expected to soar as we all catch cov.

[Gromit2]

Daily Mail, 27th March

// A paper by Imperial College London has predicted that if the country follows the same trajectory as China did, it could see between 4,700 and 7,100 deaths.
The study estimated that the true death figure would be around 5,700 - the figure is considerably lower than the 20,000 warned about in the doomsday scenario paper which convinced the Government to tighten up its efforts to stop the virus. //

File under WRONG.

[Peter Pedant]

file under the same place as

Trump: Covid will all fade away and we will saaaaay - what was that? it'll go - - it'll go

deaths above 200 000 - what - yeah really