Bleak Omnicron Prediction

[Gromit]

Hope this is wrong.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/11/omicron-covid-variant-could-cause-75000-deaths-in-england-by-end-of-april-say-scientists

Possible 75,000 deaths by April.

[fender62]

i doubt it, newspaper sensationalism fear is the mind killer...

[LadyCG]

Load of piffle. No one has died from this variant so far so why should they start now.

[dannyk13]

Scientist advisors have been wrong before so let's hope that they are wrong again.

[douglas9401]

Actually killing folk or 'within 28 days of a positive goalposts move'?

[aelmpvw]

i haven't read any evidence that the omicron variant is particularly deadly?

[Gromit]

// Scientist advisors have been wrong before //

They certainly have…

// The paper by Imperial College London last week predicted that if the country follows the same trajectory as China did, it could see between 4,700 and 7,100 deaths. //

Deaths Figure currently 146,255.

[jim360]

This seems like an absolute worst-case scenario, since it would require a 500+ average daily death toll, ie over four times current rates and sustained; or, more realistically, a peak in excess of 1000 deaths at some point in or around January/February. Given that even two doses of a vaccine are partially effective against Omicron, and that a booster seems to be successful, then as long as the booster programme proceeds apace then I'd suggest a more likely toll is half this figure.

I don't think scientists are unaware of this, either. This is presumably the extreme projection out of a number of scenarios considered, and by definition the extreme projections are less likely.

[Teapots1]

Now it may be ,or it may not be. But for sure a lever to try and pull more people in for a vaccine. An opportunity not to be missed by government. In a nutshell scare tactics.

[LadyCG]

Firstly, China lied through their bat-eating teeth about the number of deaths they had and secondly that was a different variant to this one.

[Gromit]

aelmpvw

// i haven't read any evidence that the omicron variant is particularly deadly? //

Did you read the link ?

// “These are early estimates, but they do suggest that, overall, Omicron is outcompeting Delta rapidly by evading vaccines to a substantial degree.
“If current trends continue, then Omicron may represent half of UK cases by the end of December.” //

[anneasquith]

It’s a prediction. Best thing to do is a) hope the prediction is wrong.
b) Ensure you are fully vaccinated .

[Stickybottle]

If I were unvaccinated right now I would be very very fearful and would make minimal contact with anyone

[jim360]

I note that the article argues, in agreement with my post, that this is in fact towards the pessimistic end of the range, and that closer to 25,000 deaths might be expected in a more optimistic scenario.

[ToraToraTora]

I don't see how it can be close to right. Most of us are vaccinated and even to the unvaccinated Omicron is no worse than the common cold. I'm going to bookmark this post a revisit at the end of April.

[Teapots1]

Well they did say some time back that it wouldn't be a problem to tweak vaccines to order, obviously this takes time, but I dread to think how many vaccines our body can hold up to within a 12 month period.

[ToraToraTora]

for future reference from gov site, deaths within 28 days of positive test: 146,255

[tiggerblue10]

Isn't omicron more of a problem with children now? Children under 12 aren't being vaccinated so I'm concerned about little Tigs catching it during the last week of school. He's 11.

[Teapots1]

Tigg, they did say that it seemed to be the case in Africa, but I don't think its been confirmed to be the case in the UK. But again with so much info coming from here and there, along with different opinions you just don't know what to take for real.

[THECORBYLOON]

"Omicron is no worse than the common cold"

Do you have a link to confirmed proof of that claim?

[naomi24]

I watched a report of this on the lunchtime news which basically said they know very little about it but still those who know very little about it predicted enormous numbers could die and the NHS become overwhelmed.

Shameful, irresponsible scaremongering - in my opinion. If they don’t know they should shut up until they do.