Over 100,000 New Cases Today

[lankeela]

could it just be that there are so many more people taking tests than there were before and we really had this many previously without knowing about them?

[goodgoalie]

The figures for the daily new cases have always been almost meaningless. Unless we're told how many tests in total were taken it's impossible to make meaningful comparisons.

They should always tell us what the percentage of positive cases is - but they never do.

[bobbinwales]

Weve done that before. Cases have doubted but test numbers haven't. There is a link of course but more people are being tested by PCRs mainly because they have symptoms or have been in contact with people who have. Maybe we were just undercounting previpusly to a greater degree

[pixie374]

It's obviously risen and rising since the first days, as viruses do. Hopefully, this one might be less destructive, and we can stop focusing on it. Numbers aren't important, if something is mild enough.

[bobbinwales]

//Unless we're told how many tests in total were taken it's impossible to make meaningful comparisons.//
Am puzzled as to why this point keeps being made. The numbers of tests is published every day

[New Judge]

Test numbers have increased from (very roughly) one million a day at the beginning of December to (equally very roughly) 1.5 million now. In the same period the percentage testing positive has increased from (again rough figures) 4.25% to 5.5%. So the number of tests undertaken has certainly influenced the number of positive results but the percentage of positives has certainly increased. If the number of tests had remained stable at around one million I imagine there would be around 65-70,000 positives.

[pixie374]

I don't think that would help, gg, you could do a daily (or more) negative test for a year. But a positive lasts 3 months.

[bobbinwales]

Looks like we agree on this newjudge.
Am unclear though on the basis of these figures.... is it just PCRs? How do they know how many LFTs are done as there not logged are they?

[New Judge]

//The numbers of tests is published every day//

Yes they are. But not at the same time and not in the same place. How many times have you heard the BBC announce that infections have gone up by 10,000 but the number of tests has gone up by 200,000? (Numbers just for illustration only). The answer is never and to quote solely the number of cases is meaningless when that number is determined from tests and the number of tests is not quoted alongside. Most people don't do digging and they just look at the headlines. But as you rightly say, we've done this before.

[ParsleyDumpling]

You can log a LFT result on the .gov website, whether people do is a different matter.

[bobbinwales]

I get mine here everyday.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

[pixie374]

In workplaces, negative LFTs aren't recorded, but positives are confirmed by PCR, if that helps.

[bobbinwales]

Exactly PD. Do people who do regular LFTs really bother to report negatives. I think generally not ... but does anyone know whether the figures are just PRCs or LFTs

[bobbinwales]

sorry pixie, crossed with yours

[New Judge]

//Am unclear though on the basis of these figures.... is it just PCRs? How do they know how many LFTs are done as there not logged are they?//

The only details I have seen are here, bob:

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/metrics/doc/newVirusTestsByPublishDate#tests-processed

[pixie374]

No worries. My sister and I, and most homecarers i know are doing lfts at least twice a week. None are officially recorded. Same in residential homes... just positive ones are double-checked by a PCR.

[bobbinwales]

Thanks NJ. Clear as mud isnt it. My guess is they just use lab results from PCRs. The LFT results data is too unreliable , them kits are handed out freely in schools in some workplaces and in some shopping centres and theres no check that your submitting any result at all or check as to whether your telling the truth

[Peter Pedant]

bobbin is rockin
yes we have done this to death before
but in the spirit of TTT and Brexit
let us do it all over again
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

it says ( scroll down) 1.5m

and yes even trump ( bless!) said: starp testing and there will be no covid! - - can you spot the flaw in that argument

and I cant tell you the per cent or ratio ( or as NJ wd say, rate)

but the absolute numbers are relevant as there is an absolute no of beds and ITU beds available

phew done it - - good night !

[Spicerack]

If there isn't a bed shortage/crisis in the NHS this year, it'll be the first winter in at least 20 years there hasn't been.

[Stickybottle]

pixie374
In workplaces, negative LFTs aren't recorded, but positives are confirmed by PCR, if that helps

Wrong
Everyone is being encouraged to report positive and negative LFTs on the government website in order to assist the database
It is up to the individual whether or not they choose to record them
I record my LFT’s on the government website

[THECORBYLOON]

Only LFD/LFT results in England are recorded as part of the positive cases in the UK official stats not the other nations.

"Cases definition

COVID-19 cases are identified by taking specimens from people and testing them for the SARS-CoV-2 virus. If the test is positive this is referred to as a case. Some positive rapid lateral flow test results are confirmed with lab-based polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests taken within 72 hours. If the PCR test results are negative, these are no longer reported as confirmed cases. If a person has more than one positive test, they are only counted as one case for all nations with the exception of Wales. Cases data includes all positive lab-confirmed polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test results plus, in England, positive rapid lateral flow tests that are not followed by a negative PCR test taken within 72 hours."

"England
A positive case is someone with at least one confirmed positive test from a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test, rapid lateral flow test or loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) test. Positive rapid lateral flow test results can be confirmed with PCR tests taken within 72 hours. If the PCR test results are negative, these are not reported as cases.

Northern Ireland
A positive case is someone who has received a positive polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test result. If someone tests positive via a rapid lateral flow test, they must take a confirmatory PCR test. Positive rapid lateral flow tests are therefore not included in the figures for positive cases for Northern Ireland.

Scotland
A positive case is someone with at least one confirmed positive polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test result. The number of rapid lateral flow test positive results are not included in daily case counts.

Wales
A positive case is someone who has received a positive polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test result. If someone tests positive via a rapid lateral flow test, they are advised to take a confirmatory PCR test, so positive rapid lateral flow tests are not included in the figures for positive cases for Wales.

Confirmed cases for Wales are calculated using six-week episode periods, with individuals who are tested multiple times in that period only being counted once. Any tests that occur more than six weeks after the initial test will trigger a new testing period."

From https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/metrics/doc/newCasesByPublishDate