Is This How It Starts?

[ToraToraTora]

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-russia-tensions-moscows-alleged-plan-for-fake-attack-to-justify-invasion-is-shocking-evidence-of-its-aggression-warns-truss-12532225
....they say the first casualty of war is the truth. I wouldn't put it past Putin.

[Gromit]

Truss and the US say they have evidence of a fake attack to justify an invasion.
So show us the evidence.
Otherwise I will tend not to believe them.

You may remember the US and UK said they had evidence of Weapons of Mass Destruction to justify our invasion of Iraq. When the evidence was revealed, it was utter garbage.

So if the Russians are planning something, tell us and show the evidence.

Not holding my breath.

[ToraToraTora]

the problem is that Putin has gone so far that he'll have to do something to save face. Yes lets see the evidence but this does sound like the sort of thing Putin would do. We need to give him a way to back down and save face, like Kennedy did in 1962.

[jim360]

Plenty of precedent for this sort of thing, sadly:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mukden_Incident

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gleiwitz_incident

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shelling_of_Mainila

If Russia indeed plans to invade Ukraine, they might well try this. As to "show us the evidence" -- any such evidence will have been obtained by covert means, so I doubt the US would want to explain how they got it.

[ichkeria]

It’s absolutely how it might start Tora.
I haven’t studied Jim’s links yet but I know of several occasions where they’ve already done something very similar for propaganda purposes
In one occupied town in Donbas they faked a story - with pictures - of how Ukrainian forces had tortured a small boy to death. Something that was shown to be incorrect.
As I’ve said before the tactic by the West here is to try to stay one step ahead of such activity by exposing it in advance

[dannyk13]

Gromit//they have evidence of a fake attack//
Not strictly true.They said that they had intelligence reports that Russia was planning this ruse.They made this public in order to foil this.

[ichkeria]

Exactly

[ToraToraTora]

right, yes I see ich, it seems we discovered what they are planning, clearly in such a way that we cannot show our proof and sources but by going public Putin knows we know! Hopefully that'll be enough to stop it.

[jim360]

I highly doubt it'll be enough to stop it, if indeed that's what Putin et al planned. The only people they'd have been looking to convince by this anyway are Russians, or specifically those already supportive of Putin, who aren't going to be put off by Western "lies" that it was all propaganda.

[ichkeria]

I'm not so sure:
there's a propaganda "win" for Putin here, as I mentioned elsewhere.
Play toy soldiers, keep people guessing and then at the end of it all (if there is an "end" turn round and say "look I'm a good boy. I never did anything. Its all warmongering by the West.
But better that than him actually doing it.

[ToraToraTora]

Yes, he could easily stick to his current, "we're just doing exercises" line.

[Gromit]

I have no doubt that Russia would like to capture Ukraine.
I doubt that we have any credible evidence of how they will do that.
The line we are getting from the US and Truss is not deter the Russians, it is for US and UK public consumption. Propaganda, to assert our authority, and to Justify our annual £40Billion spend on the military.

[ToraToraTora]

40bn, we spend 3 times that on WSS!

[dannyk13]

Gromit//The line we are getting from the US and Truss is not deter the Russians,//
Of course it is.

[ichkeria]

That is rubbish, Gromit
The line being taken by the West is 100% for the Russians.

Even you admit that Russia would like to "capture" Ukraine.
But only if it was at no cost to them, which plainly it would be. A massive cost and they could never do it. It's about destabilisation, whether through implied threats of further military incursions, and/or more subtle methods.

[Gromit]

Putin probably has no idea who Liz Truss is, never mind listens to anything she says.
The idea that Russia will use a bogus excuse to invade is undoubtedly correct. They have done it before (as have the West).
But I don’t believe that Truss knows the plan or that there is any evidence to support it. It is sabre rattling, posturing.
Whatever Truss says will fall on deaf ears in the Kremlin, so it must be for us to hear.

[Gromit]

// £40bn, we spend 3 times that on WSS! //

And your point is what exactly ?

[ichkeria]

No
Putin knows we know. Whether or not he knows who Liz Truss is doesn't matter

It stand to reason that if you are going to pull some trick, it's less effective/attractive if it's been exposed beforehand.

[ToraToraTora]

gromit: "And your point is what exactly ? " - that defence is very cheap.

[Gromit]

The Ukrainian authorities are aware that the notorious Wagner Group, a private military mercenary outfit are at work in Ukraine. And so does US intelligence and the Foreign Office.
If a conflict starts, they will be behind it.

[youngmafbog]

Very few people know the truth, and it certainly isnt any of us (unless anyone here works for MI6?)