Should We Stop Paying Russia For Its Oil And Gas?

[ichkeria]

Sorry no specific link but it’s something I was wondering and it appears to be an idea gaining some traction?
Let the money sit waiting to be collected at some future time.
If Russia really wants to they can still cut it off but it might get around the fact that Hungary and Germany in particular seem determined to veto a boycott.

[wolf63]

There are other issues that the media havenot yet highlighted. This is but one of them.

[ichkeria]

It’s certainly been raised that Russia might nationalise foreign aircraft.

[wolf63]

That could have serious repercussions in the long term.

There must be a remedy to the situation, maybe diplomacy and negotiation will work. Whatever happens Russia has proved that it is not to be trusted.

[Ellipsis]

> Should We Stop Paying Russia For Its Oil And Gas?

If we take Chelsea Football Club as an example of what we can do with a Russian individual's assets, then why wouldn't we do the same with the entire Russian state?

On the other hand, the recent releases from Iran show how states can behave when we don't pay our legitimate bills.

[Gromit]

The EU can’t .
Especially Germany.
Too many Krauts would freeze to death.
Though there are moves to get Saudi, Iranian and Venezuela supplies to Europe instead of Russian stuff.

[Gromit]

Russian air travel is fecked. Big time.

Half of Russian planes are leased from EU countries, and banking sanctions means they cannot pay. Same for spare parts and personnel.
Without domestic travel, their inland distribution and logistics break down.
Normal Ruskies will soon fell the adverse problems very soon.

[jno]

they're feeling it already, Gromit

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/23/were-going-back-to-a-ussr-long-queues-return-for-russian-shoppers-as-sanctions-bite

(though I think all these propaganda-lite stories need to be taken with a grain of salt; who knows if it's the same everywhere?)

[1ozzy]

Only if you can source your energy requirements from elsewhere.

[Gromit]

Demand for oil and gas is at its peak in winter. As summer approaches demand will fall. If alternate supplies can be ramped up over the next 8 months then Germany can indeed stop importing and paying Russia.

Simply stealing the fuel is not an option, especially from a pipeline. Russia would simply stop pumping it, and Germany and its economy would be severely harmed.

[jno]

Russia has warned of cuts to oil exports while they do some repairs in the Black Sea

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-warns-sharp-caspian-pipeline-oil-export-drop-after-storm-2022-03-22/

[sandra4444]

Even with the income from oil, Russia are suffering big time right now. But you just won't hear about it to much.

When this war started, Putin threatened to cut oil supplies if any support was given to Ukraine.
That's one bluff down the pan.

[ichkeria]

Indeed.
We need to stop being so fearful of Russian threats.
Tho the prospect of them cutting off the gas was always unlikely given they'd suffer even more.
The idea isn't that they would not receive the money at all.
Just not yet :-)

[Gromit]

The Nuclear deal with Iran needs to be prioritised, and 1 million barrels a day could be produced from there.
Saudi Arabia are running under capacity, and could also produce an additional 1 million barrels a day. But it is not clear if they will do so.
The US could relax its sanctions on Venezuela and exempt oil from the ban on exports.
In theory we can find alternate supply than from Russia. There just has to be the will and resolve to do it.

[jno]

might their response be "Certainly you can pay tomorrow, but we are introducing late payment fees today"?

[Gromit]

ichkeria
Why would anyone supply goods, if they were not being paid for it?
Stopping supply is as simple as turning of the tap and stop pumping it. The result would be a recession similar to the mid 1970s, and no one wants that.

[ichkeria]

No, they probably would not.
I realise there is obviously a good chance they would stop supplying.

[sandra4444]

Its good to have confidence, but being over confident can sometimes be very dangerous.

Putin went into this war full of confidence, why? because there was little or no backlash from the last few years of his operations elsewhere.
Putin and the rest of his bullies have been shocked by the response from the rest of the world.

Putin's made some big holes in Ukraine with his bombs, but the biggest hole that's be made is in Russia, in all sorts of variations.
The longer this war continues, the bigger the hole Putin will dig himself.

I've said many times on here, bullies never stop, until you stop them, in whatever way you can.
The oil pressure may drop, but the sanction pressure should carry on increasing along with weapons for the Ukrainians.

[sevenOP]

Who is the "we" here ?

A complex web of future markets,fixed contracts, primary buyers, secondary buyers... , speculators,transporters, refineries, distributors, before it gets near us 'wee people' at the receiving end.

More 'race to the bottom ' doubling down, due to the West imposed diplomatic taboo.

[Togo]

Sorry to divert Ich. I know you have things that are of more concern perhaps ... but did you know that France, despite an EU ban on exports to Russia and an arms embargo, after the annexation of the Crimea, has exported state of the art military equipment worth 152 Million Euros to Russia? Since 2015 the French have granted 76, yep 76, special licences to Russia, allowing them to ignore EU directives, and to allow France to sell technology and equipment that has allowed Putin to upgrade and re-deploy equipment that is now being used in Ukraine and may well yet be used against the EU itself. The upgrades were for planes, tanks, and helicoptersand included thermal image cameras for tanks and infra red detectors for fighter aircraft and attach helicopters. France enriches itself at the expense of its allies once again. Ever likely Micron was eager to scuttle over to Putin's bunker. Probably trying to thwart any exposé of his duplicity. Don't believe the French when they offer support or aid. It is only a screen for what they really do.

[ichkeria]

Thanks Togo

Despite being a Francophile I don’t really trust them on this.
Macron would do well to stop phoning Putin and phone the folks who are supposed to be expediting the arms to Ukraine.
The definition of madness, that you keep repeating the same futile gestures, aptly sums up these calls.
I’m suspicious of those who would “stop the war”
This is a war that needs to be won, not “stopped”. Hard as it is at the moment for the civilians