What Is Your Prediction?

[ichkeria]

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/06/06/uk/boris-johnson-vote-of-confidence-uk-prime-minister-intl/index.html

[Zacs-Master]

Boris to win, with a small majority.

[naomi24]

If a vote happens I predict he will survive it - and I further predict that his critics will carry on sucking lemons.

[Zacs-Master]

I think we’re past the ‘if’ stage.

[ichkeria]

18.00 hours this evening

[naomi24]

Yes, I've subsequently seen Danny's post elsewhere. I couldn't open your link, ich.

[Redhelen72]

He will win with a very small majority and instead of stepping down he will continue to run the government thinking himself capable of doing the job.

[davebro]

I think Theresa May got 200 for / 117 against. I expect Boris to do similar.

[ichkeria]

I actually think he might lose: partly because it seems a lot of MPs are cross at a perception they’re being coerced into an early vote by the PM. And I think there must be a feeling that this is going to run and run until the PM goes. So best to hasten the process.
What he does have on his side is the fact that these days so many MPs are in government in one form or another: I think I saw a figure of 140, which is huge and IMO rather unsatisfactory.
Personally, I don’t mind either way but I suspect it’s the beginning of the end

[naomi24]

Fools all.

[gulliver1]

Bet Theresa May is laughing her socks off.
Bet I know what she will vote for. lol

[naomi24]

Indeed, Gulliver, She never could be trusted to do the right thing.

[rockyracoon]

Ooh. Toughie. Is it a secret ballot? If it is, I think he might be ousted. If not, I think he’ll survive another day.

[Bobbisox1]

I think he’ll survive it

[THECORBYLOON]

I've seen links saying he need win only a simple majority of those voting to-night in order to win and others that he needs to get half the number of Tory MPs plus one.

I've looked for the 1922 Committee rules for confirmation but not found anything.

[Kardashev]

a simple majority will be enough but It's largely irrelevant because the damage is done by just having the vote.

[Buenchico]

TCL:
Tom Quinn, from the Department of Government at the University of Essex, explains the rules in some detail here:
https://www.essex.ac.uk/blog/posts/2022/01/24/how-to-oust-a-tory-leader-the-rules-explained

[Ken4155]

Johnson will most likely see this one out - with a few votes to spare - but he'll have to do some major aris-licking today at these meetings he's having.

[youngmafbog]

As I wrote on another thread I suspect only about 30% will vote against him at this point but he will limp on as a lame duck PM.

He has to go, but he wont not even if he wins by only one vote.

Johnson only has himself to blame, he has wasted a golden opportunity by allowing his unelected wife to influence policy to the detriment of the country and the Party.

[FatticusInch]

Back-benchers know that with Johnson at the helm they’ll be battling for their political futures.
If he’s gone within 3 months they’ll believe they have a slim chance at the next general election.
Tory PM’s historically rarely survive these votes more than a few months.
He’s finished.

[Buenchico]

My own view is that if Tory MPs were asked to vote solely upon who they wish to see as PM, Boris would win easily.

However I suspect that many/most of them will be thinking ahead to the next election, with the real question in their minds actually being "Do we stand much hope of winning if Boris is still PM?". Even some of Boris's biggest fans might vote against him if that's the way that they're thinking, so I think that he might well lose the vote.