Day 500 …

[ichkeria]

… of Russia’s war in Ukraine since Feb 24 last year will be marked by the latest US announcement of weapons for Ukraine. This package is expected, finally, to include
DPICMs, cluster munitions munitions.
Although the delivery of long range missiles is still in the balance.
This as Russia appears to have gravitated to a different terror tactic of hitting civilian areas in cities less well protected by air defence. Notably Sumy and Lviv most recently.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/06/world/europe/ukraine-cluster-munitions.html

[ichkeria]

Day 500 being Saturday 8 July I should have added

[Bobbisox1]

Awful ich, how that man still yields power over his people !!!!
I hope they eventually rise up against him soon

[New Judge]

//I hope they eventually rise up against him soon//

It would make no difference because if he is toppled, there are fifty, of exactly the same ilk, eager to take his place.

[Bobbisox1]

Yes sadly that’s true NJ

[ichkeria]

I think the hope is tho that with Putin gone the war would also stop.
It’s totally unsustainable for them and Prigozhin laid bare the lies behind it shortly before his “mutiny”
So don’t expect any contrition, but they really do need an excuse to stop it fairly soon

[ichkeria]

The people will never rise up. Don’t forget that up until as late as the 19th century Russia was a society based on masters and slaves and arguably nit a lot has changed since. Power changes by arrangement or internal mutiny.
That’ll happen again

[Khandro]

I don't think they will, or should, negotiate. Hostilities would stop, which in itself would be good, but the Russians, whoever is in charge, will draw the talks out endlessly, & they would still be holding almost as much of Ukrainian territory as they were 500 days ago, but with the infrastructure of the country decimated.

[ichkeria]

Yes there’s no question of any negotiation.
Lessons are learned from 2014 and 2015 when Minsk 1 and 2 saw agreements which were consistently violated by the Russians. As indeed had been the Sarkozy arrangement in Georgia earlier.
Putin is trapped though by his own idiotic strategy of “annexing” four regions none of which are entirely in Russia’s control. So he can’t really give up.

[tomus42]

If Putin goes the war will end, irrespective of how many scumbag wannabe dictators are waiting to take his place.

None of them will want to inherit his godawful mess, and will take the opportunity to blame it all on Putin, get the sanctions lifted and carry on dictating on peace.

[ichkeria]

This evening Ukraine’s deputy defence minister reported that Russian forces in Bakhmut are now trapped. Ukrainian forces are believed to have fire control over all the supply routes into the city.
She also declared that Ukraine-Russian losses are at the ratio 1:5.3

[ichkeria]

Confirmed:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news?psdata=11_3_T8_4CMp9_10_TCD11__CK12_14_15_
Great news.
Corbyn and co will be on the March no doubt

[ichkeria]

Here’s the proper link

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-66134663

[Khandro]

ichi; I wonder if this cluster bomb news is not really to make the Ruskies nervous that they will be facing them rather them being actually put into use, (or if they even exist) ?

It would seem to me not a very sensible weapon to be used by an advancing army, which having fired them ahead, would then have to negotiate through the scattered ones, which are effectively personnel landmines.

[William51]

The Russians are *** in targeting civilian areas, i wish more than ever Russia gets beaten.

[ichkeria]

The failure rate for these munitions is evidently at maximum 2 per cent.
They are themselves useful for clearing enemy mines, which has to be done anyway (tho you can’t just rely on DPICM for that).
So they’ll certainly use them.
And by the way it’s not that Ukraine is short of artillery shells as Biden stated. Not if the US is also sending extra heavy artillery!

[Khandro]

^^ I think everyone is hoping too much for a swift advance & an end to the killing & destruction, but I think the reality will be a long slow slog, that is unless Putin is dethroned - a lot of wishful thinking going on there also.

[ichkeria]

The Russian army must be nearing breaking point. The elite branches of their army are routed. They are desperately putting reserves into the front line to hold back the Ukrainian advance whereas the vast majority of Ukraine’s counter attacking force has not been used yet.
Ukraine is held back really by the mines and some desperate defence by front line troops but once that gives way …
What’s also unfortunate is that Ukraine could also do with better air power, longer-range ground-launched missiles and even more heavy armour.
But they are getting helicopters and anti ship missiles as well as AA air defence missiles

[Khandro]

'Mr Zelenskyy has - perhaps inadvertently - created an "air of expectation" in the West of a swift and decisive victory.

Russia has established hundreds of kilometres of layered defences, including anti-tank ditches, "dragon's teeth" defensive barricades, and mines.

These are all surmountable, but creating clear corridors through minefields simply funnels attacking forces into predictable channels, which can have deadly consequences. As chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff General Mark Milley advised, the Ukrainian offensive will be "slow, and it will be bloody".'

Sky

[ichkeria]

The dragons teeth are a joke as I mentioned before
The “layered defences” sound formidable but are in effect nothing of the sort. There’s one primary defensive line and that’s effectively it.
The problem the Russians have as I’ve said often enough before is that they simply don’t have the manpower to defend a 600 mile defensive line effectively. So they have to keep moving their forces to cover the latest prove by Ukraine. And gradually those moving forces are getting taken out by precision weapons. As are their logistics. It’s not a sustainable state of affairs for them

[Khandro]

ichi: You always get full marks for patriotism & optimism. :0)