A Fellow Aber Thinks Brexit Has Been A Success…

[Gromit]

Where I live voted Brexit, but I am not hearing hearing happy people.

The voters are disappointed, can't see any good results, and a lot of travel inconveniences.

Maybe I am just TROB.

anyone out therethink Brexit has been a rip roaring success ?

[ToraToraTora]

hymie: "If Brexit has already cost each household £1,000 (and we only left in 2021) by simple maths, over an 80 year lifetime it will run into many times that." - even if I accept your ridiculous numbers that does not mean that they will be constant forever does it? Do try and think it through me old china.

[douglas9401]

Ridiculous numbers?

 

"ToraToraTora

If some asked me to pay £10k to leave the EUSSR I would have, a mere bag? bargain (if it's true)"

[Hymie]

Another lefty 5C organisation (the Office for Budget Responsibility) said that the post-Brexit trading relationship between the UK and EU, as set out in the ‘Trade and Cooperation Agreement’ (TCA) that came into effect on 1 January 2021, will reduce long-run productivity by 4 per cent relative to remaining in the EU.

[gulliver1]

TTT 10.57 "If they charge us 10% we'll do the same, we are not as helpless as you 5Cers seem to think" The people who live in the EU Ain't going to buy electric cars from the UK and pay a tarrif when they can get equally as good and even better cars in the EU are they TTT. Think about it then consult your fellow pupils in class 5c and see what they think.

[royfromaus]

If Brexit has already cost each household £1,000 (and we only left in 2021) by simple maths, over an 80 year lifetime it will run into many times that.

 

Ah, so it's bullcarp you have made up.

Seek help, Hymie...for your own mental wellbeing, seek help

[ToraToraTora]

"The people who live in the EUSSR Ain't going to buy electric cars from the UK and pay a tarrif when they can get equally as good and even better cars in the EUSSR are they TTT."

The people who live in the UK Ain't going to buy electric cars from the EUSSR and pay a tarrif when they can get equally as good and even better cars in the UK are they Gulliver?

Works both ways me old china.

[Bobbisox1]

TTT, after his running to the Mods and Spare, why on earth do you bother answering him,he'll just get you into trouble 

[ToraToraTora]

I don't know bobbie I suppose it's a forlorn hope that he may have a penny drop moment occasionally!

[gulliver1]

12.08 hahaha lol.

[Bobbisox1]

Never gunna happen Tora, just don't bother with him is the way forward 

[Hymie]

Any of you who read my Brexit posts will know that most cite a source of some lefty 5C organisations/publications such as The Bank of England, The Financial Times, The Torygraph, The Office for Budget Responsibility, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the London School of Economics etc.

Whereas those pointing out my posts are complete nonsense – are just that, complete nonsense.  They cannot even find some right wing source, refuting the lefty 5C organisation pronouncements.

[ynnafymmi]

Im not usually in agreement with Hymie and all his racist nonsense he usually posts,but on Brexit i am fully in agreement with him....and no,im not being sarcastic.

[JDavis]

'I can't believe those that expected changes straight away, it'll take more than 7 years (for Brexit to work)'. Why 7 years? Don't remember hearing that before the vote.

[Bobbisox1]

JDavis , no time limit was ever given before the vote, I didn't say that 

[JDavis]

Bobbi,

The PM assured us that we had all those oven-ready deals. Was thatnot the case then?

[Old_Geezer]

As mentioned umpteen times, there was an oven ready deal, but the EU continuously refused to buy it and put it in the oven.

 

As the old proverb says, you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make them drink.

[gulliver1]

15.08 An oven ready deal.........Cooked up by Boris....

....Was bound to end up  Burnt...

[JDavis]

OG,

So the 'oven-ready' deal wasn't actually agreed then?

[New Judge]

That lefty 5C organisation (the Bank of England) says Brexit has cost every household in the UK £1,000.

This claim, which you keep repeating, came from Jonathan Haskell, a member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee. He said that ‘the sharp reduction after the Brexit referendum has dealt a £1000 blow to each UK household’. He claims that the productivity penalty caused by a huge drop in capital spending since the 2016 referendum has led the UK economy to be £29 billion smaller than it would otherwise have been. When asked, he explained how he reached this conclusion. He said that business investment has ‘flatlined since the referendum in 2016’ and he estimated how much higher it would be today if it had continued to grow at historic rates. 

There's lots more criticism I could add to his claim (though not in 4,000 characters). However, to be brief, it is clear that his analysis was based on assumptions rather than hard evidence. His calculation is conditional. He is saying that if business investment had grown at a faster rate than it actually did, then most people in the UK would be better off. This was not, however, how his conclusions were reported. The BBC headline for instance was “Brexit hit UK investment by £29 billion says Bank of England Policymaker”. The BBC quoted Haskell as saying that ‘a wave of investment stopped in its tracks following the 2016 vote’ and that ‘the UK had suffered much more of a productivity slowdown because of Brexit’.  Fourteen paragraphs into its online account the BBC says that Haskell “referred to a calculation to show what the UK economy could have looked like if it has continued growing at the rate it had been before the referendum compared to what it is currently growing at”. This is the only mention of conditionality. Most of the reports, both online and on its TV news, presented Haskell’s conclusion as fact rather than supposition. A supposition that you have swallowed as a fact, hook, line and sinker.

Even more than that, even if his supposition was correct (which it might or might not be but nobody knows since it is based on assumptions) the calculation to show that it has cost every household £1,000 is pathetically simplistic. All he did was took the supposed hit to GDP and divided it by the number of households. But changes in GDP do not influence household wealth in that way. A loss of GDP does not necessarily impose a loss of income or capital on every individual. But I’m sure you know all this (or at least should do if you are bandying these “facts” about).

So let’s put this nonsense to bed. It is a simplistic scenario (we can’t have anything too complex for the people you believe are stupid enough to swallow this rubbish) constructed by an individual in a prominent position within an institution that was vehemently opposed to Brexit. An institution that will do everything within its considerable power and influence to discredit the decision of the electorate.

Nobody is £1,000 worse off as a result of Brexit; not by this calculation nor by any other likely to stand up to five minutes’ scrutiny. 

[New Judge]

Come 1 January next year (thanks to Brexit) UK manufactured electric cars exported to the EU will be subject to a 10% tariff (unless some agreement otherwise is made before hand).

What's the other half?

The other half is that the EU will come to an agreement on this. Their usual strategy of allowing matters to go to the wire will prevail. These proposed tariffs, which involve “rules of origin” for component parts (which are part of the EU’s protectionist strategy)  will simply open the door to cheap Chinese vehicles being imported to the EU and the UK. Neither the EU nor the UK currently has the capacity to produce all the components of electric vehicles (particularly the batteries) and something will give. So as usual, nothing to see here (except alarmist nonsense).