Dreadful Day For Russia

[ichkeria]

Massive drone attacks in their territory.

Government troops put to flight in Belgorod in clashes with rebel militia.

An IL 76 crashes another Su-27 downed - in Russia 

And the first significant military aid from the US since December 

Tide turning? Well maybe maybe not ...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68541911

[davebro3]

One single death could end this terrible war. 

[Khandro]

^^ Well maybe he won't get re-elected, (& pigs might soon fly)

[naomi24]

//Tide turning? Well maybe maybe not ...//

 

I don't think so.  At this rate I think this war is unwinnable.

[ichkeria]

Ryazan oil refinery targeted this morning. If there is a "tide" in Russia's favour just now it is a temporary one.

On the aid, the ATACMs missiles I mentioned in the Macron thread would be a huge asset if true. The 300 million from the US was er, trumped, though by a package of 340m from Denmark. Let no one say Europe is standing idly by.

[ichkeria]

Rod Laver was a true great also although he was past his peak when I remember him 

[ichkeria]

Lol Sorry 

Maybe he'll lob Putin out of power 

[Ellipsis]

What the deuce! 

[Khandro]

'Putin warns the West: Russia is ready for nuclear war' Reuters

Though he adds the proviso, 'technically' ready. Well so are eight other counties technically ready. As he doesn't have a button on his desk to press, he might be mad enough to order it, but would the military be mad enough to do it knowing that it would mean instant suicide for both them and their families?  

[Peter Pedant]

Rod Laver was a true great also although he was past his peak when I remember him 

last man to win wmbldeon in straight sets 1962 - I havent checked and

in the middle of "You can nart be serious " McEnroe he commented that the most any player said ws " are you sure?"

[Peter Pedant]

I don't think so.  At this rate I think this war is unwinnable.

winnable for Ukraine is just to drive the invaders out....

Remember Trump said - Ukraine they  speak russian right, then they're russian....

Orban has commented that Trump will just cut off aid to Ukriane the day he becomes president but then DIDNT say, and Hungary is next - which I thought was rather obvious

[Old_Geezer]

It wouldn't be seen as possibly unwinnable if weaponry allowing the invaded to strike at the heart of the invader, was made available to them. Attrition at the front is just a long drawn out loss for both sides. Destroying vital resources, supply lines, and cutting off & demoralising the enemy would work better.

[Khandro]

I don't think Trump would simply cut off weapons, that would lead to a bloodbath of epic proportions. He would get both sides together, probably personally, and hammer out a settlement, just like he would if it was a business deal.

There cannot be a 'winner', both sides have lost so much already.

[ichkeria]

There is no way on earth Trump will "hammer out" any settlement. It isn't that sort of dispute. I suspect that he will not abandon Ukraine though, and the US will continue to support them, although it may be that Ukraine's allies will have to make up as much as possible until a change of administration.

This war will not end with a negotiated settlement unless there is a change of regime in Russia.

[davebro3]

Unless he is stopped militarily (or dies) I don't think Putin will give up until Russian troops are in Kyiv & a puppet government installed. He doesn't care how many Russian soldiers die - he has lots.

[ichkeria]

Many are wondering if a mass mobilisation will be called after the "election".

The problems and risks for him doing that are not trivial I'd say.

But fundamentally yes, Putin will not give up unless he is removed from power. Which will happen if things should get too difficult for him.

[Khandro]

I think Putin would accept a settlement, the question is to what terms would he acquiesce. 

Ideology sucks, he can't put the Russian Empire back together. No fallen empire from the Roman to the British has ever been re-established, time for Realpolitik.

[ichkeria]

For one thing Ukraine would mit offer him one.

For another no one trusts him to stick to anything. He had be de abided by any agreement he ever signed. When he walked away from the Black Sea grain corridor arrangement Ukraine just said "Fine: we'll bomb your ships and carry on" with the result more grain is now getting through than it did under the deeply flawed agreement which Russia had constantly obstructed. 

[Khandro]

When push comes to shove etc. it will have to be compromise. Some territory in the east will become Russian, Crimea too, but under conditions monitored by the UN and maybe NATO.  

i.e. Elon Musk's plan of a couple of years ago.

Either that or a continued war of attrition until Ukraine is devastated, which would be no advantage to anyone.

[ichkeria]

Elon Musk's "plan" as I recall involved elections  in occupied areas of Ukraine on them joining Russia. About as sensible as had someone suggested elections in Nazi or indeed Soviet occupied areas of eg Poland in 1940. 
I don't know when people will grasp the fact that this is NOT a territorial dispute about a bit of Ukraine here and a bit there, Putin wants the lot and then some more. And "agreement" would merely be temporarily damming the until they renewed hostilities at some time in the nearish future. Now is the time  to destroy Putin while we have the chance. One thing is certain: Ukraine will not stop