Does Putin Believe It?

[ichkeria]

Apologies for starting yet another thread on Russia, but I didn't want to hijack the previous one which is more about "us and them"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68596231

In this link it suggests that the "88%" will give Putin great confidence as well as sending a signal however flawed, that he's the man in power. But I wondered if he actually believes it? It occurred to me that we may well do. After all he was apparently led to believe he'd conquer Ukraine in days when in reality his disastrous war still drags on.

If (and it's a big if) that is the case, when he may well be in for another nasty shock. There is every chance that the full-scale war he unleashed in 2022 has precluded any chance of his retirement, which had prevouosly been mooted. As long as he stays in power it is less likely that anyone internally will come for him and blame him for it.

[naomi24]

I don't doubt for one moment that he believes it.  Mad as a hatter!

[ToraToraTora]

He must know it's a contrived result but that's what dictators do they use any device to stay in power.

[youngmafbog]

I doubt he cares.  He has the power and thats it for him.

I'm not so sure about the mad bit though, he is just simply an evil tyrant IMHO.

[sandyRoe]

I doubt if he believes it.  But he must know, with the direction he's steered his country, there'll be no easy retirement for him.

He's got a tiger by the tail.

[youngmafbog]

Well Sandy, Live by the sword .....

[Untitled]

i doubt very much that putin believes anything at all

[youngmafbog]

Except in himself.

He is a narcissistic meglamaniac.

Our problem is how to deal with him.  He wont stop at Ukraine most likely take a shot at Latvia or Lithuania to see what NATO does.

Sadly I suspect it will be NATO boots on the ground within 2 years one way or another, lets hope we are prepared.

[Untitled]

my impression was always that putin is simply a figurehead for the cabal of oligarchs who actually own and control most of russia.  even if he died tomorrow (which i would celebrate) the root cause would remain... 

[tomus42]

I don't think he believes it at all.

[ToraToraTora]

15:17 nope, read Bill Browder's book red notice. Early on one of the Oligarchs was thrown in jail. The others went to Putin and said what do we have to do to not be thrown in jail? He said he wanted half of everything, not for Russia but for himself personally. Putin is a super oligarch worth more than all off them combined. Almost certainly the richest man ever to have lived. Read that book it's a real page turner.

[jno]

I don't think he's mad, he knows what he's doing but has for the time being got in over his head with Ukraine. The invasion wasn't irrational - the West had waved through his seizure of the Crimea, to its shame - and it's still not a done deal that Russia will lose.

The West has already got distracted by events in the Middle East; a little upheaval over Taiwan, say, and it's going to have a lot of trouble prioritising.

[jourdain2]

I rather agree with Untitled at 15.17.  This fake election gives him grounds to expand conscription and, in effect, do any thing he chooses in the name of 'the people have spoken'.  He may think that he is, on an equal scale, dealing with them and feathering his own nest whilst promoting 'Mother Russia' - but I think that he may find that if he is unsatisfactory he will be replaceable.  Unfortunately he will probably bring the world to war first.

[jourdain2]

^^^ youngmafbog - I agree  that there will be NATO boots on the ground.  I think it will be in about a year myself.  No, we are  not ready - but we never have been, have we?  Always short-sighted politicians.

[ichkeria]

Looking at his face at that appalling rally in Moscow yesterday I'd say he believes it all right: he looked like a man who'd pulled a fast one and knows it: I still think election officials will have given him a false account of the  figures because those unprecedented queues at midday Sunday not to menton the attacks on polling stations were a sign of displeasure and unrest. So I think he is a deeply troubled man. Even if the worst of it is probably being kept from him. I'd love to see the actual figures: famously a leaked report a few years ago revealed the true result of the "referendum" in Crimea despite the lawlessness then and intimidation.  

[ichkeria]

Nato "boots on the ground" in Ukraine? I can't see it myself sadly. I can see a huge effort by Europe and hopefully the US to assist in any way short of that: the best way to defeat Russia is to force them to withdraw as Ukraine as so far successfully done around Kyiv, Kharkiv and Kherson. So training, weapons supply and maybe some more special forces in some capacity. We aren't going to see French and Finnish troops in the trenches alongside Ukrainians IMO

[ichkeria]

"I'd say he believes it all right:"

Doh! I meant "doesn't believe it"!

[naomi24]

I think you're endowing hiim with rationality he doesn't possess.  He's a megalomaniac - full of his own importance. 

[ichkeria]

Indeed, but he is rational to the extent that he probably understands that remaining in power is his only chance of survival. And yet despite the negative headlines about US aid, ammunition shortages, and Trump etc, this really is a war he absolutely cannot win. As someone said above he probably really is one of the richest men that ever lived. Russia is a country governed not by politicians bit by a mafia-style crime syndicate. And like all godfathers he is vulnerable to the people who feel his continued presence threatens their interests.

[Peter Pedant]

oh, he believes he is the only possible person to lead Russia out of the Ukraine fiasco

the re-incorporation of Ukraine ( lucky souls!) back into the russo=space, he thinks is a god given duty. ( Patriarch told him so, etc).

[Peter Pedant]

As someone said above he probably really is one of the richest men that ever lived.

hmm bit of a mis-quote - he said to TRUMP I will make you the richest man in the world if you give me a free hand in the East, and trump said, its a deal