What Happens If Russia Wins?

[Untitled]

https://tinyurl.com/bdfhh8fc

richard kemp in the telegraph argues that ukraine has six months left... he says this is because ukraine has suffered losses which are too serious to overcome and because the recent western aid package has come too late principally because of resistance to it in the USA.

let's assume he's right... what happens if russia wins?

it would be a defeat to biden for sure... can we imagine trump and putin carving up eastern europe in a couple of years time?

was it a mistake to focus on unconditional victory?

what kind of fate will befall the ukranian people?

[Untitled]

one could argue from a very cynical point of view that the USA has done very well indeed out of this war.

NATO's purpose has been revived when it was wayward a few years ago

huge boost in weapons sales in europe

russia has suffered catastrophic losses both human and material and if they occupy ukraine will struggle for years to hold it. 

in the dark corridors of power one can imagine people in the state department feeling quite pleased about this situation.

[ToraToraTora]

give Vlad a ring, maybe he'll grant you asylum me old china!

[Untitled]

eh?

[Old_Geezer]

There will be secret support for the resistance and await the error of attacking a NATO member.

[ichkeria]

I can't read this (Corby?) but given it starts with the largely  factually inaccurate "It looks like, as in previous wars, Russia will have begun badly but finished well through sheer determination" I don't think it is worth debating too seriously.

However, the answer to your question is that if Russia eventually managed to prevail in Ukraine it would spell a very bleak future for Europe and for what is often called "the international rules-based order"

Which is why it won't be allowed to happen. Your remarks about Nato and the US are ridiculous. Nato 's purpose is to defend countries against aggression, mainly from Russia. Which is why countries have queued up to join it. So it's "good for business" in the way fires, car crashes and crime are good for the police and the emergency services.

[Untitled]

NATO is also an extension of US power that was going through something of a legitimacy crisis before the emergence of a credible threat... i am not suggesting that NATO has any responsibility for this threat but it has done very well out of the war. 

[douglas9401]

The military-industrial complex is, of course, a figment of the imagination. Armaments are created from unicorn poop, free of charge with no profits involved.

A rolling line of credit for odds and ends with the certainty that we'll all remain the best of friends ever after completes the picture.

Apparently

[jno]

I can read Untitled's link, Ichkeria; try again?

[ichkeria]

"but it has done very well out of the war. "

And thank goodness for that 

[davebro3]

Russia will take over part of E. Ukraine, go home to lick its wounds & think about another western incursion (or Putin will die & sanity will prevail). 

[douglas9401]

I doubt Vladimir is the last of the rabid adventurers.

[ichkeria]

Although this was was never about Russia's fear of NATO despite the claims of some, one offshoot of it has been to encourage two of Europe's foremost military powers in Finland and Sweden to join. Finland with its huge army and Sweden with its interesting conscription system. When you turn 19 in Sweden you get a letter and a medical form to fill in. But only the top so many hundred thousand or so are chosen and possibly as a result remarkably few drop out.

[ichkeria]

Russia's lost getting on for half a million dead or dead and wounded capturing less than 20 percent of Ukrainian territory and no further major cities in over two years. Even during the dark period of the last few months when Ukraine has been  running low on ammo, they have been advancing at a snails pace and continuing to lose upwards of 1000 personnel a day. So the idea they only need another 6 months to finish the job seems fanciful.

[Untitled]

i think richard kemp's argument is that russia can just about afford the losses it is suffering but ukraine cannot 

[ichkeria]

"I can read Untitled's link, Ichkeria; try again"

Yes thanks not sure why I couldn't before. It doesn't amount to much - a short piece basically summarising what we already know and no evidence provided that I can see for "six months".

In fact I'd take issue with the idea that further Russian successes would mean less aid - almost certainly the opposite. I think to their shame Ukraine's allies balked at the prospect of Russia's  defeat. But it's the prospect of her defeat which has caused  a rethink. And now there must be no turning away.The air supremacy thing really amounts to the unchallenged use of glide bombs along the front line to clear Ukraine's defence positions. With the prospect of NATO standard fighter planes arriving this summer (at last) that advantage will lessen as will  the missile threat as air defence systems are belatedly upgraded. The big issue is manpower but with better recruitment and training there's every prospect that Ukraine will still prevail in the long run. During which time it will beef up its own military industrial capability and eventually smarter will beat harder 

[tomus42]

If Russia wins - or more accurately is allowed to win, Putin will continue his campaign to restore the USSR.

The next target is likely to be Moldova and/or the baltic states.

Alot will depend on what happens in the US election in November. The MAGA party is quite openly pro Putin and anti NATO.

[William51]

 In my understanding of it, if Russia wins it will be after negotiations and they keep Eastern Ukraine. I think Putin will stop his aggression there because secretly he may want an end to the mess he started.

[Peter Pedant]

give Vlad a ring, maybe he'll grant you asylum me old china!

foo ! nothing that TTT writes has to make sense: it is just a vehicle to wheel out today's rhyming slang

[Peter Pedant]

The next target is likely to be Moldova and/or the baltic states.

THEY certainly think they are next in line ! Hungary thinks it is OK because it is pro russian - - ooowww!