Third world war, conventional or nuclear?

[stevie_c2it]

Events over the last five years have thrown into focus the likely nature, causes and locations of the next global conflict.
In a time when both the western and Islamic cultures are viewing each other with a level of hostility and suspicion not experienced since the Crusades, it is unfortunately inevitably that events we have, and are witnessing may be the trigger.
Interestingly, though I believe Iraq will have played its part, I think the likely 'hot spot' is Iran. Currently the USA is opposed to Iran gaining nuclear weapons, but is not in a position to stop them by force. In addition the hard-line regime in Iran has made it clear that they believe Israel should be 'wiped from the map'. Given that the Iranians seem determined to pursue a uranium enrichment programme regardless of Western threats, and that Israel, with good justification, sees itself as the likely target, it is not surprising to learn that, the Americans have, over the last year, been supplying the Israelis with specialist weapons, 'bunker busters' in order for them to carry out a pre-emptive strike on these facilities, should it become necessary.
It requires little imagination to appreciate the outcome, and pick out the countries that would offer military support to either Iran or Israel. What I'm curious to ask AB'ers is whether they believe that Russia or China would take sides after such an event, or stay neutral, which I believe will determine if it is a war to be fought with conventional weapons or not.

[nedflanders]

Lets not forget how Israel got their nuclear capabilites, one of our previous governments had a large bit to do with it, although the US supply them with conventional weapons now, its was Britain who helped them develop and supplied materials to build nuclear weapons.

[Lonnie]

Doggy2, read my post again, In my second, which is the one you are referring to, there is no mention of any country, however, just for you, and you alone,

The country, or to be more precise, its leader. that called for Israel to be wiped off the face of the Earth, is Iran, Israel, to my knowledge, and please correct me if i'm wrong, has never said that any country, anywhere, should be wiped out.

Palestine, and agin. correct me if i'm wrong, has on its Manifesto, 'The destruction of Israel', again, Israel has nothing like it on their Manifesto.

Your still a bit new to the site, but you'll learn, read posts twice before answering, it save being emarassed.

[Doggy2]

Lonnie........ This is what you said:

"the difference is, Israel has never threatened to wipe another country off the face of the Earth, nor has it got the destruction of another country in its manifesto".

It is quite clear that you are referring to Iran's president and his comment and then the manifesto as there was no previous reference in regards to Palestine. If that's not what you meant it was obviously not clear in your post.

But common! Israelis do not exactly have a fantastic track record in the Middle East especially on human rights violations. Does Jenin masacre ring a bell or is it also part of "war on terror"? Surely you don't mean all palestinians are suicide bombers? Are you? And more relevant to the point what exactly gives Israel the right to interfere with Iran's nuclear technology when they have kept their own nuclear program secret for such a long time? Does anybody question their right to have these? Argue the case about Iran if you wish to do so but do it constructively no labelling! What leaders of countries say does not always translate into action in politics! And Iran knows the consequences for taking these drastic measures. What evidence is there that Iran will attack Israel except those comments? Or are we going round a vicious circle again?

And yes I'm new a bit new here, and I have read a few of your posts and do not feel I should go over them twice. I do find however your stance as a british born and bred, who happens to be jewish against Iran and all the other moslems not surprising in this case! Correct me if I am wrong if israelis have no love for palestinians then how do you expect palestinian and other arabs have love for Israel? I rest my case.

[Lonnie]

Ok Doggy2, I never said The Israeli's were saints, but you've made your point, i'll leave it at that for now, otherwise we'll be here for ever.

[Doggy2]

No Lonnie. Let there be no misunderstanding! I asked a question you replied. When I asked another question you made a statement. My last response was my reaction to your statement. I agree we let's call it off otherwise we will be here forever.

[Lonnie]

Doggy2, you won't leave it, will you, this now has no relation to the original question.

I stand by what I said in both my second and third post, Jennin is a fact, and is also history, what I posted is about the now, the Thread Question was about the future.

[Doggy2]

Lonnie...... I stand by what I said to you in all my posts! I have already given my opinion on this issue until you came along and side tracked me with the Palestine saga and the manifesto, which had nothing to do with the above thread unless you want to make that relevant here.

[Fish Kid]

I think Russia will sit on the sidelines - there is no way they can match US military conventionally, and they are reasonable enough to realise nuclear conflict will hurt us all (hence why the Cold War never escalated to this, say what you want about the Ruskkies, but they knew, as well as the Americans, that nuclear war would finish off everyone).

China - a sleeping giant who are biding their time. They'll not get involved as they are still developing, another 20 years from now I expect it'll be a different story.

Bear in mind the Americans have only been in their current position a very short period of time in terms of history, and nothing lasts forever...look at other empires, Roman for example.

I cannot see Israel sitting back though, realistically the only Arab nation of any threat to them is Iran, they know that and Iran knows that.

I'm just waiting to turn on the news one morning and see that they have bombed the proverbial sh1t out of Iranian nuclear/military sites.

Not that I'm supporting what Israel stands for (they could easily boost their PR by giving the Palestinians a break), but they know they are a target and will not sit back and wait for their opponents to come at them.

[Doggy2]

Fish Kid, first of all, I don't think Israel will have the stomach to attack Iran without the approval and tacit support of the americans militarily and financially for they are fully aware of a backlash and are too scared to risk it on their own. That's why the israelis are trying to get an international consensus to justify an attack with support from the other countries.

Secondly, if you are so eager to see Israel attack Iran then perhaps next time you should ask yourself why we are creating so many enemies in the East, who wish to attack us. It could be that we are creating these situations ourseleves by turning a blind eye on Israel when they commit so many crimes against humanity and continue with building illegal settlements in the occupied territories just to name a few.

Thirdly, I hate to tell you the obvious but since you have made it plain in your post I will remind you that Iran is not arab nation. Its people are not arab and speak a different language. A little history lesson about that part of the world might have helped.

[Fish Kid]

Doggy, I'm full aware of the history of the region, I've just spent 2 years working in Saudi, currently working in UAE. You are being slightly pedantic...Iran is a mix of cultures, Arabs, Persians, Jews etc..., but to keep you happy we'll call them 'Middle Eastern'.

There is a lot of concern in the region about the Iranian influence out here, it's showing in Bahrain in a worrying way, Saudi are not comfortable and UAE stay out of it as much as possible but nobody wants to see them get nuclear energy due to risk of leaks which could impact UAE very easily.

I was not condoning Israels policies, just pointing out that they know they are a target in this region and they will not sit back and wait to be attacked. They currently have a strong military advantage, and (in my opinion) will not let that be erroded.

Israel are not too concerned by international opinion - they've ignored UN resolutions for many years, and whatever they do, they'll still receive support form the US (most of who have no real idea of what goes on out here).

If you read and understood my post, I said I was not supporting Israel, and I'm certianly not eager for them to attack Iran as that will not be in my best interests being a westerner in the Middle East.

I just think that Isreal realise that they are in a very dangerous situation, and they will not sit back and hope for diplomatic solution.

[Doggy2]

Fish Kid, you made your point although I don't think your notion of Iraninas being jews, arabs and persians is correct. At least I don't think I'm being pedantic by a margin. Arabs only constitute 2.5%-3% of the population mainly based in the South West of the country namely in a city called Ahwaz. As for jews most of the 250,000 jews that lived in Iran before the revolution emigrated to America and Israel. This leaves Iran with other Ethnic minorities such as kurds and turks which make up around 20%-25% of the population and the rest are persians. But I'm happy to go with your revised version of the terminology to describe Iranians as "Middle Eastern".

Anyhow, I did not mean to pick on you but when I read in your post "I'm just waiting to turn on the news one morning and....", it seemed that you are keen for israelis to attack that Iran. On the other hand, when you later say that you are not "eager for Israel to attack Iran as that will not be in my best interests being a westerner in the Middle East", I find those comments contradictory. Are you in favour of an attack by israelis or not?

I fully agree with you on the notion that americans have no idea on what is going on in that part of the world. Maybe that's because they (the americans) view the Middle East through a spectacle that is manufactured by the Israel and that often gives a biased picture of events. You will often find that this would make the israeli govenment the parasites of american foreign policies in the middle East.

[Fish Kid]

Not contradictory at all...I said 'waiting to turn on the news...' I did not say it is osmething I'd like to see, more that it is something I expect to happen.

I'd rather not see an attack by the Israelis, but I really think it is against the regions interests to see a bunch if nutters in Iran getting nuclear weapons. UN is useless - if a nation disagrees they ignore them, so I expect it will end up with military action as I doubt Iran will back down.

[Doggy2]

Fair enough. Personally, I don't see any attack by Israel on Iran will take place without any sorts of reprisals from Iraninan government and their influence. Israelis and americans know this very well.

Furthermore, it will destabilize the region and will cause further tension in the Middle East. If there's is any solution to this crisis, it is only by allowing strict measures in place to only allow Iran enrichment of uranium for civilian purposes as the government claims and not an atomic bomb. But with currentclimate and threats to refer Iran for a possible sanction I don't see how.