Pessimism

[brionon]

Why does the BBC tell us how many have died from the Pig 'Flu but don't tell us what the survival chances are ? NO MENTION of Survivors.

[naomi24]

They have said that the two English people are recovering well, so I presume they'll survive.

[Gromit]

In each of the eight countries that has swine flu, more people have died in road traffic accidents, during the past week than have died from this stain of flu.

Cars are responsible for 1.2 million deaths worldwide every year. Are we worried?

[NiceCupOfTea]

152 dead in Mexico so far. 27 confirmed cases. Presuming the others weren't Swine Flu, what on earth did they die of, and isn't that illness far more scary? Or is it normal for people to die of flu in Mexico? In which case, why are so many dying of something that isn't the deadly Swine Flu and therefore so much more curable? Why aren't we helping that country?

[Twenty20]

109,955,205 survivors - population of Mexico minus the 159 who died. Fairly low odds.

[jake-the-peg]

That's because it's very difficult to get.

A lot of people will have got this and recoverred on their own.

Some days ago the fatalities against reported cases stood at around 5%.

But those are mostly cases that actually got medical help and in a country like Mexico that could be quite a small number.

The ratio is more likely to be 1% or half a percent or lower.

However if a million people in the UK were to catch it and even 0.1% died, that'd still be 1,000 deaths.

[brionon]

Gromit
Good one,mate !!

[Gromit]

However if a million people in the UK were to catch it and even 0.1% died, that'd still be 1,000 deaths.

Or just a third of the 3000 that die annually on UK roads.

[LeMarchand]

NO MENTION of Survivors.

They're probably not allowed to publicise their own programmes, and even if they were it would be in bad taste.

;o)

[youngmafbog]

Dont like vehicles then Gromit. How do you get to your cofffe shop in Isington then?

It si true however that, at present, numbers are small. Deaths are bad news and bad news is good news for all the news companies.

Anyway we have nothing to worry about Brown is riding to the rescue.

Oh no we're all doomed

[Gromit]

youngmafbog

By pointing out 3000 die annually in car accidents does not mean I dislike cars. I could have said 9,000 alcohol related deaths annually, and that wouldn't mean I dislike alcohol. It is just a measure by which to measure the flu 'epidemic'.

[sqad617]

Gromit....I admire your optimism and you may be proved to be correct:
152 dead in Mexico so far....reported deaths
Now worldwide spread.
H1N1 already mutated to cause human to human transmission.

That is the story so far.........now providing the virus does not mutate again, which respiratory viruses are prone to do and if they do not become resistant to Tamiflu or Relenza..which could well happen, then we would be looking at in the next 20weeks:

30million to be infected with a death rate of 30,000 deaths.
That is the good news.

Believe me you do not want to contemplate the bad news.

[jake-the-peg]

Remember that every year normal seasonal fu kills
250,000 - 500,000 around the world

So Squad coming up with numbers like 30,000 dead sounds scary but much less so than say "an additional 10% mortality"

It's all in the context you choose

Wouldn't you agree?

[sqad617]

Jake.....I agree.

[BRIGHT SPARK]

I thought we were all going to die of bird flu?

[TCL-MUMPING]

"In each of the eight countries that has swine flu, more people have died in road traffic accidents, during the past week than have died from this stain of flu."

In 2005 there were 3,201 folk killed on British roads. When Britain was hit by the Spanish flu pandemic in 1918, 250,000 were killed by it.