Why are the Conservatives behind Labour in marginal seats?

[Gromit]

[Gromit]

http://www.telegraph....seats-poll-shows.html

[jake-the-peg]

I'm guessing because I haven't seen the poll but with widespread dissatisfaction with MPs you have a probable low turn out giving a higher effect to the protest candidates.

UKIP especially is likely to draw much more from the Tory than the Labour vote.

Remember too that Cameron is starting from a very low base, fewer MPs than Michael foot had. That means he has to turn around a very large number of seats

[jno]

it's a mystery. My guess is that Cameron still looks too much like Blair Junior - you could perfectly easily see him rushing off into another war if Washington told him to do so. Likewise he hasn't presented any clear blue water between the parties on other big issues - the economy, state intrusion in the name of security, [insert own preference here]. Blair did manage to persuade people (rightly or wrongly) that he was different from the party he sought to replace; Cameron is so busy trying to woo Labour voters that all he can really say is 'try us, we're exactly the same only better', which isn't really a USP.

[rov1200]

You can fool some of the people some of the time. Whatever walk of life do you have to buy the product and try it out later. That's exactly what you are doing when you vote and hope that your expectations are fully met and say what it means on the tin.

When you purchase an item from a store you are given a short period of time to return it. When you buy into the next government you have to wait up to 5 years before exchanging it.

[jno]

would you really want to have elections every couple of months because the government did something you disapproved of, rov? Seems to me that would only encourage short-term thinking and no planning ahead at all. No way to run a country. Four-five years sounds like a decent interval to me.

[rov1200]

No jno but it leads onto having referendums for major issues. I don't believe you should take a party line lock, stock and barrel and half the time regretting you ever voted for that party. This is the position we are in today!

We hadf the mis-selling of insurance policies during the past decade and had some redress. When this is applied to politics we are being had.

[Ric.ror]

I personally would find it very difficult to vote for the eton son of an eton son so that may have something to do with it

[VHG]

It may be that Labour have been giving money away hand over fist to traditional labour voters (benefits, tax credits, housing allowance, child benefit etc etc).

This has made the labour voters happy, but bankrupt the country.

Many labour voters dont give a t*ss about the country and just want their handouts for doing nothing to continue.

Hence they will vote labour.

[DrFilth]

VHG the only people on benefits to get any extra are the ones with kids, you obviously know little about the subject.

[Seadragon]

The Poll was taken before the budget was delivered. It may be different now.

[Gromit]

Clutching at Straws seadragon,

From the Torygraph:
// Labour more trusted to steer economy than Tories.
A new poll blow to David Cameron, as Tories hopes of an outright General Election victory fade.

Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling have regained their lead over the Conservatives on the economy in the wake of this week's Budget, according to a poll. //

http://www.telegraph....er-Conservatives.html

[Backdrifter]

VHG if the traditional labour voters are being kept happy that is not going to affect the polls. It's the floating voters that can steer a poll one way or another.

And as for "referendums on major issues" rov1200... god in heaven, it fills me with dread to think of the British public being asked to vote in referendums

[tamborine]

'cause labour supports the Afgan war

[Seadragon]

If its not an outright Tory victory, I think it will be a Tory/Lib dem hung Parliament. But I think the Leader debate will be the deciding factor for massive voters.

[rov1200]

A bit condescending Backdrifter. Maybe only people of your intelligence should be allowed to vote.

VHG you are right about this. They had a program on TV the other night from a Labour controlled area and the person interviewed said the same thing. They are dependent on benefits and would vote to keep them.

[BertiWooster]

Good question - and this is despite Lord Belize spending sackfulls of cash in targeting these marginals .

The tory party strategists must be scratching their heads , trying to understand this phenomenon and the question as to how such a big lead in the polls has dissapeared .

I think what might scupper Gordon Brown's chances of sucess is if these strikes aren't resolved sharpish . I cant understand the thinking of these union leaders in calling strike action so near to the country going to the polls .

Although it might be that under the law they have to carry out the called for action of a ballot within a certain period of time if the disputes are not resolved

[jno]

to put it from the other end, Berti, perhaps employers have chosen this particular moment to provoke strikes?

[BertiWooster]

Indeed jno , that could well be the case .