The 'national'? It's Anybody's Race.

[Ken4155]

Not really. Let's take the last 10 years;

10/10 won no more than 1 chase that season
10/10 had 3-6 runs since Sep the previous year
10/10 had run since weights announced (this year 17 Feb = 53 days)
10/10 had run in at least 10 chases in their career
10/10 had won between 1-3 handicap chases
10/10 had won over at least 3m
9/10 had won a chase worth 29K
9/10 had won 3-5 chases overall (exception had won 11)
9/10 carried no more than 14lb more than the bottom weight
9/10 had contested between 5 and 16 handicap chases in their career
8/10 had finished in the first 3 on last completed start

17/25 winners were aged 10 or over. 39 of the last 40 placed horses were aged between 8 and 11. Last 3 winners aged 11, last 5 aged 10 or over.

7 of the last 10 were Irish bred, the other 3 were French bred.

Jockey Paul Maloney has had 10 National rides and failed to get round on his first 4. Since then he has amazingly finished 2nd, 3rd and 4th (x 4) in his latter 6. 3 of his places were on State Of Play, 2 were on Cappa Bleu and last year he was 4th on Alvarado (33/1) which he rides again this year and which is currently 20/1.

Wherever you put your money, the best of luck.

[Psybbo]

Phew, Ken, are you my OH secretly posting on here! That's impressive, I can't watch the National, too scared!
Wasn't Nina magnificent in the Foxhunters, no whip used, she was a passenger, she said, all credit to the horse!

[Ken4155]

Nina was coolness personified, psybs. Her and Katy Walsh are the equal of their male counterparts (and better than quite a few). Using the stats (on a one-strike-and-you're-out basis) i managed to find Katy's Thunder And Roses @ 25/1 in Monday's Irish National:-)

[Psybbo]

Well done Ken, I wasn't brave enough. Still C. Appleby has kept me in the black today.
Oh does the stats to rule out the horses that can't win so thanks for your input.

[Sycamore3House]

I thought it was lovely how the other jockeys gave her a kiss to congratulate her.

[tonyav]

Got two horses to draw in the sweep at work tomorrow, which horses should I hope to draw out of the hat ?.

[thesecondlaw]

I'll be on The Druid's Nephew, Ken. I used to have a lot of luck in the National, three in four years at one stage. Rhyme N Reason, Mister Frisk and Seagram. Not been so lucky lately though :-(
Good luck, everyone.

[Ken4155]

Tonyav; haven't studied the field yet but i wouldn't be too put out if i drew Alvarado given Paul Maloney's record in the race - no doubt your sweep pay 4 places. Just wish i'd noticed his prowess over this course last year.

[wolf63]

Are the horses all boy horses, all girl horses or a mixture?

[tonyav]

Thanks Ken.

[venator]

It's not anybody's race - it's the bookies' race, innit?

[Ken4155]

thesecondlaw; there was a time, not so very long ago, where you could choose any 5 year period and i would have had at least 3 of the winners from that time. Though i fully understand the recent changes made to the race on the grounds of safety, i have to say that they have had an effect on some of the stats. I have had a placed horse in each of the last 4 runnings, but no winner during that time.

[Psybbo]

The best drawn horse I had in a sweepstake was Esha Ness in the pub, the race that never was but got paid out!

[Ken4155]

Wolf63; all are 'boys' and all now speak in a high-pitched voice, thanks to having had their appointment with the scissors.

[Sycamore3House]

Ken, it does tend to be the older horses that do well in the race. I have always put that down to experience of the horse to get around the course both in distance and the number of fences and the horse has to love what it is doing. The horses have usually been around a while and are specially trained or ear marked for the race.

[Ken4155]

^^^

Agree, the winner of the race will obviously need to be able to handle the fences but will just as obviously need bags of stamina. That tends to come with age so the older horses will nearly always hold sway. Which is why i will be ignoring anything under 9yo and leaning towards 10yo and above, carrying no more than 11st.

[Ken4155]

Using the above stats, i managed to whittle the 40-strong field down to 17 (who scored 10/11 r 9/11) and a second sweep with the scythe (using other stats and certain form guides) brought that number down to about 7 or 8. Of those, i have settled on the following 3 (all Irish-bred);

Night In Milan @ 25/1 - scored 10/11 - failed on having contested more than 16 handicap chases. Sole run at Aintree was a one length 2/14 in a 3m 1f handicap chase. My idea of the winner, therefore my main bet.

Alverado @ 22/1 - scored 9/11 - only had one run since Sep and unplaced lto but, as explained above, Paul Maloney rides this course better than most.

Oscar Time @ 40/1 - scored 10/11 - unplaced lto (at 14 yo is probably too old to win the race but it did have almost a year off and has been placed in 2 previous Nationals. The added bonus is that Sam Whaley-Cohen is the most successful jockey to have ridden over these fences and that, for me, is reason enough to part with a couple of quid e.w.

That's me sorted, once again, best of luck.

[Ken4155]

Well, the winner certainly blew one or two stats out of the water as regards age and weight carried, though it did meet many of the other criteria. Paul Maloney came to my rescue with his 4th place - his 7th consecutive placed run in the toughest race in the world. Amazing. Well done anyone who had the winner.

[Psybbo]

Lovely horse, Many Clouds!