Road rules2 mins ago
General Election -- 15 Seats To Watch
I thought I'd try my hand at being a political pundit and offer up a few seats whose results I think are particularly important in the overall result, at least based on the predictions from the electoral calculus website. Keep an eye out for what goes on in these seats (possibly)!
1. Bermondsey and Old Southwark
A massive Lib Dem majority in 2010, set to become a Labour seat if predictions hold, but with the tiniest of majorities of 0.6% it's basically a dead heat at the moment. If the Lib Dems are to have much say in coalitions/ other deals then they'll need to hold on to seats like this one.
2. Blackpool North and Cleveleys
A close Labour v. Tory battleground, Labour expected to win by only 1.4%. UKIP votes acting as a potential spoiler here for the Tories -- in this and several other seats, if UKIP voters "come back to the fold" then the Conservatives could well return on overall majority.
3. Cambridge
Potentially a four-horse race including the Green party (on about 15% prediction), and also set to be a seat with the smallest overall vote share for the winner at not much more than 25%. Could be very tight, could go any way. A predicted Labour win.
4. Ceredigion
The SNP are expected to win seats in droves but their fellow nationalists Plaid Cymru seem to be unable to to the same in Wales. Here's one of their better chances of gaining a seat from the Lib Dems but they probably will fall well short.
5. Devon North
Coalition partners going head-to-head and, again, an important one for the Lib Dems to hold if they want to stay relevant. The Conservatives might win this one with the support of UKIP votes though.
6. Glenrothes
Up in Scotland, Labour won this seat with a 40.6% majority in 2010. Electoral Calculus predicts that to be slashed to 0.6% by the SNP rise, making it a statistical dead heat. If the SNP win here they will be ecstatic and probably looking at 50+ seats overall.
7,8,9,10. Harrow East, Keighley, Loughborough, Pendle
Four Lab/ Con marginals which could go either way. Pendle in particular comes out as a dead heat on Electoral calculus. Key marginals.
11. Norwich South
An outside chance of the Green party winning here, but it'll probably go to Labour.
12. Thanet South
Obviously -- will Farage win this? UKIP won't have much luck elsewhere, probably, winning good second or third places but struggling to get above 20%. Best chance here of picking up a seat.
13. Wentworth and Dearne
100% guaranteed that this will go to Labour. But I thought it would be interesting as UKIP could come a strong second. If even voters in Labour heartlands are turning to UKIP, albeit without hitting Labour's vote exactly, it's clear that the main opposition are struggling.
14. Wyre Forest
Electoral Calculus has got this seat utterly wrong, I think, as it predicts a strong showing for the "minority" candidate. Except that candidate isn't standing. Throws out their predictions by only a seat, but a bit of an oversight!
15. Upper Bann
A wildcard from Northern Ireland, as Sinn Fein might win here possibly. SF Mps traditionally don't sit, lowering the bar for a "real" majority, so extra Sinn Fein seats could allow a party to sneak over the line with only 322 seats as opposed to 326.
* * * * *
Well that's my lot. There are plenty of other tight marginals -- almost 200 -- meaning that all results remain possible. Which way these seats go could be important, or they could be lost in the noise of tiny swings the other way elsewhere, but I thought I'd highlight them all the same.
1. Bermondsey and Old Southwark
A massive Lib Dem majority in 2010, set to become a Labour seat if predictions hold, but with the tiniest of majorities of 0.6% it's basically a dead heat at the moment. If the Lib Dems are to have much say in coalitions/ other deals then they'll need to hold on to seats like this one.
2. Blackpool North and Cleveleys
A close Labour v. Tory battleground, Labour expected to win by only 1.4%. UKIP votes acting as a potential spoiler here for the Tories -- in this and several other seats, if UKIP voters "come back to the fold" then the Conservatives could well return on overall majority.
3. Cambridge
Potentially a four-horse race including the Green party (on about 15% prediction), and also set to be a seat with the smallest overall vote share for the winner at not much more than 25%. Could be very tight, could go any way. A predicted Labour win.
4. Ceredigion
The SNP are expected to win seats in droves but their fellow nationalists Plaid Cymru seem to be unable to to the same in Wales. Here's one of their better chances of gaining a seat from the Lib Dems but they probably will fall well short.
5. Devon North
Coalition partners going head-to-head and, again, an important one for the Lib Dems to hold if they want to stay relevant. The Conservatives might win this one with the support of UKIP votes though.
6. Glenrothes
Up in Scotland, Labour won this seat with a 40.6% majority in 2010. Electoral Calculus predicts that to be slashed to 0.6% by the SNP rise, making it a statistical dead heat. If the SNP win here they will be ecstatic and probably looking at 50+ seats overall.
7,8,9,10. Harrow East, Keighley, Loughborough, Pendle
Four Lab/ Con marginals which could go either way. Pendle in particular comes out as a dead heat on Electoral calculus. Key marginals.
11. Norwich South
An outside chance of the Green party winning here, but it'll probably go to Labour.
12. Thanet South
Obviously -- will Farage win this? UKIP won't have much luck elsewhere, probably, winning good second or third places but struggling to get above 20%. Best chance here of picking up a seat.
13. Wentworth and Dearne
100% guaranteed that this will go to Labour. But I thought it would be interesting as UKIP could come a strong second. If even voters in Labour heartlands are turning to UKIP, albeit without hitting Labour's vote exactly, it's clear that the main opposition are struggling.
14. Wyre Forest
Electoral Calculus has got this seat utterly wrong, I think, as it predicts a strong showing for the "minority" candidate. Except that candidate isn't standing. Throws out their predictions by only a seat, but a bit of an oversight!
15. Upper Bann
A wildcard from Northern Ireland, as Sinn Fein might win here possibly. SF Mps traditionally don't sit, lowering the bar for a "real" majority, so extra Sinn Fein seats could allow a party to sneak over the line with only 322 seats as opposed to 326.
* * * * *
Well that's my lot. There are plenty of other tight marginals -- almost 200 -- meaning that all results remain possible. Which way these seats go could be important, or they could be lost in the noise of tiny swings the other way elsewhere, but I thought I'd highlight them all the same.
Answers
Thanks Jim, I will keep an eye on them. I also will watch Sheffield Hallam to see if Nick Clegg gets back in.
11:09 Thu 07th May 2015
Early results:
- Upper Bann didn't go to Sinn Fein in the end, coming third in a tight-ish three-horse race. The bar for a majority is likely to stay at about 323 rather than going lower.
- Ceredigion didn't go to Plaid Cymru either, leaving the Welsh nationalists likely to watch at their SNP cousins wondering how to join them...
- Glenrothes. Not even close. the SNP run away with a landslide, tripling their vote and taking twice as many as Labour. Huge, huge, huge. The wipeout is on.
- Upper Bann didn't go to Sinn Fein in the end, coming third in a tight-ish three-horse race. The bar for a majority is likely to stay at about 323 rather than going lower.
- Ceredigion didn't go to Plaid Cymru either, leaving the Welsh nationalists likely to watch at their SNP cousins wondering how to join them...
- Glenrothes. Not even close. the SNP run away with a landslide, tripling their vote and taking twice as many as Labour. Huge, huge, huge. The wipeout is on.
Mikey hasn't been active since early evening.
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Perhaps he is asleep
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Perhaps he is asleep
No, I don't know what you mean. I was offering 15 seats I thought might be interesting barometers of how things would actually play out compared to the polls. People can take or leave them, of course, as they were based heavily on my opinions of the numbers, but it was something I thought I'd share.
I don't see what you mean at all, I'm sorry.
I don't see what you mean at all, I'm sorry.
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