2008 - Race for the White House!

[Kromovaracun]

Thought I'd make a thread on the US presidential race seeing as the start of it has been marked by the Iowa caucus today

For the Republicans, it's a good start for Baptist minister Mike Huckabee, decisively gaining 34% of the vote. Huckabee's ability to reach evangelical Christians (in a rather annoying folksy sort of way) could well be what's carrying him - especially considering some of his rather bizarre policies - but will it work in other states?

For the Democrats, Barack Obama gives Clinton a bloody nose but there's life in the old girl yet. Obama only needs one mishap to fall out of the race, and Clinton's position is still a strong one.... Who will win?

It's early days now, and there are still plenty of potential winners waiting in the wings - discuss the '08 presidential campaign here!

[jno]

a very strong showing by Obama; if Clinton doesn't do well in New Hampshire next week she's toast. Harder to read the Republicans: Giuliani didn't bother with Iowa but reckons he'll do better in more urbanised states. I can't really see Huckabee and Romney doing well outside the religious right of their own party. If I appointed the president it'd be McCain, but the chances of an honest and experienced man getting the job seem limited.

[sp1814]

Mike Huckabee is a very lucky man. He has a ready-made slogan for the rest of his campaign:

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0356721/

I was shocked to see Clinton come third, but as Kromovaracun has already pointed out...these are just early days.

[jno]

and don't forget the Huckabees backstage adventure, sp1814...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F86s4Vq59Ks

[Gromit]

Huckerbee believes the bible to without error, so he would be a fun president. His son David, is well known for hanging a stray dog.

[Bazile]

Brief synopsis of the American Presedential Election System / process please ?

I once started to read about it , but then gave up soon after starting ......got bored as i recall - same effect as American Football .

[Gromit]

Bazile

Right-wing churches and big business bankroll the candidates and the result is the best President money can buy.

Ex-oilman, George Bush's campaigned was run on large donations from the oil Industry and his team was plucked from the likes of Texaco. Upon elected, Bush repaid by not signing the Kyoto Accord and audacious plan to liberate Iraq's oil.

Here is an interesting link from Bush's election campaign of 2000, before he was President.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion/e2212.htm

[Bazile]

Thanks

What about the actual processes , that eventually churns out a winner ?

[Kromovaracun]

Bazile:

First come the primaries (or caucuses in some states such as Iowa) - in these elections, the presidential nominees or candidates for each of the individual parties is chosen.

Then comes the presidential election, when those nominees duke it out for the White House.

The Iowa caucus marks the beginning of the primary cycle for the '08 campaign.

[Kromovaracun]

I'd very much like Obama to get the Democrat nomination. He's charismatic and certainly has potential to be a good leader (which is what you need in a president). He's not quite as left wing as Hilary, but I think he's ultimately more trustworthy. My only real gripe with him is that he wants to withdraw from Iraq (though he's less melodramatic on this issue than Clinton)

For the Republicans, Guiliani isn't perfect but he's certainly a more 'enlightened' Republican (for instance his support for civil partnerships - a very bold position in the Republican party). Huckabee would be a disaster if he became president (for example his bizarre and rather unworkable 'self-sufficency' policy and his over-elaborate and rather odd tax plan).

[lotdot]

BBC analysis raises the point that neither Huckabee or Obama have any foreign policy experience, which given the situation with Iraq/Iran/Afghanistan/Pakistan etc etc could be worrying.

Mind you, given that Bush presumably had and has foreign policy experience, maybe this isn't such a bad thing after all.

[jno]

Bush's only foreign policy experience was the occasional visit to Mexico when he was governor of Texas. It doesn't much matter either way. A lot depends on the quality of their cabinet - and unlike British PMs they can choose anyone they like, they don't have to choose from elected politicians (and seldom do, in fact). They are constrained in their actions by members of Congress - the nonsense about WMDs was intended to persuade congressmen to support the Iraq war and succeeded just as it idid in Britain.

Democratic voters have had enough of Iraq and want out. Hillary voted for the war and refuses to apologise, which has annoyed many potential supporters. But Obama actually opposed the war from the start, which few in either party did, and he may be reaping the dividends of his foresight. But if they want to become president each will need to attract Republican voters too. Obama will be hoping enough of them have also had it with Iraq.

[Whickerman]

Cal Thomas (big-name right-wing US political columnist) was interviewed on the Last Word radio show on Thursday (Today FM, Ireland) and he got the results of the caucus spot on. He also indicated that they are a poor reflection of the general state of the US as Iowa and New Hampshire are hugely conservative.

He seems to be sure that Hillary will win in the end btw.

[jno]

I think that's right, Whickerman, both states are mainly white and rural, and not very representative of the USA as a whole. Also, I don't think they actually contribute many delegates to the big party nominating conventions later in the year. Clinton and Giuliani will both be pinning their hopes on New York - much bigger, urban, multicultural, multiracial, multisexual, and where both have power bases.

Still, Iowa was the first big test and it threw up unexpected results. The candidates now know where they stand and what they have to do.

[fletcher.5]

Sorry Kromo, I am now involved in a dash to the s--- house,
any difference?

[Kromovaracun]

Clinton got New Hampshire. Which is lucky for her as Obama could've had her on the ropes. They're looking pretty neck-and-neck in the Democrat nomination. Perhaps the nominations won't be decided even until 'Super Tuesday'?

For the Republicans, Guiliani is still waiting in the wings. I remember a short while ago when he looked like one of the most likely to potentially win, but he's been overtaken by McCain (who does look quite good and probably has the greatest chance of winning a Republican presidency). Could he make a comeback? I hope so, but it's looking less likely.

Romney's done very well for himself, coming a strong second in the first two primaries, But due to his Iowa success Huckabee is going to be stern competition for the social conservative vote (which McCain and Romney shall both be trying for). Huckabee will, however, almost certainly lose a presidential election if he gets the Republican nomination. Romney I'm not too sure about.

It's all to play for then...