Weather Forecast

[lankeela]

for tomorrow gives us a 30% chance of rain between 3pm and 6 pm - but what does a 30% chance of rain mean? I can't get my head round it! I can understand a 50% chance - either its going to rain or not, but how do you know what is forecast when it is a 30% chance?

[tonyav]

A one in three chance, lankeela. Dunno how they get the percentages though.

[Sam1960]

Hope this helps lankeela...

[Buenchico]

Official answer:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/what/accuracy-and-trust/probability

In practice though you should try to relate it to other 'real life' probabilities. If the probability of your partner coming home drunk from his firms 'do' is 90%, then you'll be expecting him to get p.ss.d but you'll recognise that there's still a slim chance of him remaining sober. Conversely, if the probability of him coming home smashed out of his mind is only 10%, you'll be expecting him to arrive home reasonably sober so but still not totally surprised if he doesn't.

A 30% chance of rain means that it's more likely than not that it will stay dry but you still shouldn't be too surprised if your barbecue party gets rained off.

[Buenchico]

>>> A one in three chance

I hope that Tony only intended to offer an approximation. If so, I'm happy to go along with it. If not, he needs some maths lessons ;-)

[tonyav]

I hope that Tony only intended to offer an approximation.

Yep.

[Hopkirk]

The odd thing is that it refers to the chance of rain in the last hour. EG if it says 30% at 3pm it means from 2 until 3pm.

[douglas9401]

What it really means is that three times out of ten, even with all of their super computers and historical records it's the best they can hope for, accuracy wise. :-)

[haras2]

I find the Met office satellite map is the most reliable because it gives you real time forecasts

[albaqwerty]

http://www.funnysigns.net/johns-weather-forecasting-stone/

[tonyav]

Very accurate forecasting using the stone method, ah wench.

[albaqwerty]

much more accurate than the seaweed henging from the front door method, our kid.

Seaweed wet - it's raining
Seaweed dry - it's not
Seaweed not there - hurricane

[tonyav]

:-)

[Arksided]

Take a brolly if you're out and about at that time, one in three chance it'll come in handy... if you're John Steed... Or a Kingsman.

I simply just look outside the window, and notice what folk are wearing.

[albaqwerty]

Arky, I used to do that, the looking out the window thing.
I still do that, but guess the passer-by age - similar to mine I'll wear what they are.
Anyone who looks much younger, no way - they're much more robust in their attitude.
Our postie wears shorts in all weathers, but a jacket if it's tipping down :-)

(not individually I hasten to add lol)

[tonyav]

Our postie wears shorts in all weathers

So does ours, ah wench. He's radio rental I tell ya.

[Arksided]

Sorry for late reply Alba... I was watching Fast 5... but yeah when I look out the window... I sometimes think deary me what are you wearing... but still notice if I need a jacket or coat... or simply a fleece to carry stuff in.

[Arksided]

lol love the expression... its tipping down ;-)

[malagabob]

If you look out the window 3 times in a given period The period will be 100%. And if it’s raining in any one of those viewings that’s 30%.

[malagabob]

Or 33.3333333 recurring.

[Bazile]

Why do people say it's tipping down with
rain ?

What else would it be tipping down with - pizzas ?