Is The Tide Turning?

[Khandro]

With Reform UK now predicted to win seven seats?

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1911744/nigel-farage-reform-poll-survation

[gulliver1]

YES.  The clear Blue Water is starting to get very very muddy.

[drmorgans]

 

Even more worrying for the Tories is that they're only just ahead of the Lib-Dems.

 

[Old_Geezer]

That is an amazing low. However they do have more heartland constituencies.

[Old_Geezer]

Given the group making the prediction, one would have thought they had an incentive to minimise possible Reform seat numbers rather than exaggerate them.

[naomi24]

Perhaps we'll see some surprises.

[Gromit]

MRP is a method of statistical analysis that makes adjustments to real readings by weighting the figures to make educated guesses rather than actual numbers.  As such, it is a useful tool but should be used with caution.  
In the 2017 general election (the one when May lost the Conservatives their majority), YouGov used the technique to get 93% of the predicted seat results correct.  
I am always a bit sceptic when the sample is online respondents and telephone owners surveyed. No actual in person to person responses.

I hope it is correct, because it eztimates a huge majority for Labour, but I doubt, with only half the campaign done, that it will be accurate in 3 weeks.

Reform publish their manifesto tomorrow so the scrutiny of their policies and costings can begin.

[Togo]

It is hard to get "official" figures and what we have is 8 years old and was not collated by an authorized body. However it is a apparent from the data available that in the Referendum 407 constituencies across the Country had a majority of Brexit voters. Now given the obvious disdain for what has been passing itself off as a Conservative Government, and the rightful alarm at the prospect of a peevish pro EU administration, wanton destruction of the energy industries for mad net zero suicide, and trade unions again on the march demanding more for less then it is no wonder that voters are in a cleft stick. However there is a way out of this globalist uniparty trap that has been set for us and is being promoted as a done deal for the stiff necked Starmer. If every voter who voted for Brexit voted for the Reform candidate,( and they appear to have one in every ward that voted Brexit) there would not a tidal shift but a veritable tsunami of change.     

[Togo]

Reform have already promised to scrap the "licence fee" and defend British culture. Scrapping the licence fee would do both at a stroke. 

[Gromit]

Togo,   
You are correct. Making the BBC self financing would involve them taking advertising and subscriptions. That would mostly effect SKY and TNT, but also ITV, C4 and C5. It would decimate the UK TV landscape and see the demise of many channels.

[Khandro]

The problem for the electorate is that the Conservatives are not Conservative and the Labour Party isn't Labour.

Many of the Red Wall voters who lent their votes to the Tories have been let down by them, don't like what Labour are doing, and will probably take a shot with Reform.

I shall vote Reform UK, it won't make much difference because it's an uber-safe Tory seat, but statistically it will be seen as a protest and boost the national figure. 

[Togo]

They are already flying the kite that they may take ads on their online "services". ie. They want to cherry pick where they advertise and at the same tax every houshold to make the content that earn extra revenue for their twisted agenda. They must think that our stupidity is as natural as their duplicity.   

[Gromit]

// data available that in the [EU] Referendum, 407 constituencies across the Country had a majority of Brexit voters. //

And in the 2019 general election, those 407 constituencies elected precisely zero Brexit Party candidates to parliament.

[naomi24]

//And in the 2019 general election, those 407 constituencies elected precisely zero Brexit Party candidates to parliament.//

 

They didn't need to.  The referendum was done.

[Gromit]

And is still done.

[naomi24]

Yes.

[Gromit]

Togo/naomi24

Your party is not going to get 407 seats on July 4th 😂

 

[gulliver1]

Well and truly done ,,,by Pinocchio with a hay stack balanced on top of his bonce.

[Togo]

Reform does not have to get 407 seats and neither was that suggested. You are letting your fears and uncertainties produce the emo driven responces that define most of your "opinion". All reform need to do is attract enough votes to be an effective opposition. Do you remember when we had an opposition party that forced vigorous debate on the sitting government before legislation could be voted through instead of plotting to promote their own power grab at every opportunity? An opposition that was not just a mirror image of the front benches. Reform have just the man to ensure that those who disagree with Government plans to further enslave us are represented, if only on the back benches, instead of having to watch as the uniparty MPs from both tarnished legacy parties stitch us up time and time again. It will be a rinse and repeat job on what happened to the eeyoo chancers in Brussels and not before time. 

[naomi24]

Gromit, I'm not affiliated to any party but I talk to people from all walks of life and of all political persuasions and it's surprising how many of them want the same - even though they think they're on opposite sides.

[Gromit]

Better put in a repeat prescription for anti depressants on July 5th.